This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Friday's slate brings a whopping 11 games, so hopefully The Force will be with us as we run down our target list.
As of this article's release, Vegas isn't moving the needle sharply toward any particular game, except for the Jazz/Celtics matchup, which has a paltry 198 Over/Under. If you are debating between two players and one of these teams is involved, it might be worth considering this element. As for other intangibles, we have Atlanta, Detroit and Brooklyn on the tail ends of back-to-backs and while travel times for these games are not a huge factor, it's worth noting that the Hawks and Nets both lost on Thursday. Let's now take a look at our high-salary players first, my Padawans.
We've got a list of the usual suspects, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, and Anthony Davis at $10K-plus prices, with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons not far behind in the high-nines. Of course, all of these players will have big days, and their prices reflect that – we're just looking for the best among the best. Nikola Jokic is no longer listed on the injury report so Cousins and Davis' trip to Denver may be tougher than originally anticipated, though both have had excellent outings against the Nuggets this year.
Harden and the Rockets trail only Golden State with the second-fastest pace factor in the league, but as Thursday's game illustrated, the offense can flow just as easily through Chris Paul. The only player I can't really find a qualifying statement for is Giannis Antetokounmpo, so he is my high spend of the night at $11,600. With plenty of centers and guards and a lack of forwards on the slate an argument can be made for Cousins in the PF slot, and I think equal value can be found for a lower price than Westbrook or Simmons at guard. Harden is the toughest call here, as it looks like Paul and Harden will be a nightly toss-up for who will hit value. I'll make my call about that below.
As usual, I'll highlight three players per position below at high, median and value prices with other players to consider at each position. Even though they aren't featured, those additional players carry equal weight in my predictions.
GUARDS
Chris Paul, HOU vs. SA ($8,600): There you go. I've seen what I need to see from Paul and I think he's the better pick of the two as long as Paul is below 9K. The Spurs are tough but aren't great in the backcourt, and this is Houston's game to lose. They are simply too hot to fade right now.
Lou Williams, LAC at WAS ($7,600): With Austin Rivers out with a concussion, the Clippers backcourt opens up even more for Williams to maximize output while in the midst of a 10-game hot streak, where he's averaged 24.7 points and 6.9 assists and logged an average of 35.8 minutes on the floor in that span. The usage and output are there, which are two of the biggest factors you need to look for on a daily basis.
Caris LeVert, BKN at TOR ($5,200): Yes, Spencer Dinwiddie did go off for 50 DKFP on Thursday, but LeVert comes in at $1,200 cheaper than Dinwiddie, and I think Dinwiddie's blowup is an outlier, especially as LaVert's minutes continue to rise. The Nets have often shifted LeVert all the way over to the point when Dinwiddie is off the floor, giving the former Michigan standout an opportunity for more assists on his stat line.
Other guards to consider: Damian Lillard, POR at ORL ($9,400); DeMar DeRozan, TOR vs. BKN ($8,400); Kris Dunn, CHI at MIL ($6,500); Jamal Murray, DEN vs. NO ($5,600)
FORWARDS
Otto Porter, Jr., LAC at WAS ($6,500): Porter tangles with the Clippers for the second time in a week and he blasted them for 57.3 DKFP in the first outing. Porter hit a cold streak in the interim but I still think this is a great spot to get a high producer in the 6K range. The Wizards' poor rebounding marks should only help boost his output.
Robert Covington, PHI vs. OKC ($6,100): Covington should come back from his back injury with a bang on Friday, as he's been cleared to play with little to no lingering effects. Richaun Holmes and Dario Saric were adequate Band-Aids for him, but the Force is strong with Covington. He'll be more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
Kent Bazemore, ATL at MEM ($5,700): Bazemore has seen time at the three and four a lot more often, and though I'm not a huge fan of his see-saw production, his ceiling is high enough to go for at this price. I think he needs to pass the 30-minute mark to be truly effective, and he's inching close to that amount.
Other forwards to consider: Khris Middleton, CHI at MIL ($7,300); Jonathon Simmons, ORL vs. POR ($6,600); Thaddeus Young, IND vs, DET ($6,200)
CENTERS
Dwight Howard, CHA vs. MIA ($8,100): If you've watched the Hornets at all, you can't help but notice a spring in Howard's step of late. You also can't help but notice how often he has the ball, and how often he's grabbing it off the boards. With Miami missing Hassan Whiteside, I see Howard exceeding his 12.4 RPG average and he should be able to match that with a good night of easy baskets.
Marc Gasol, MEM at ATL, (%7,900): Atlanta is struggling to rebound the ball without Dewayne Dedmon, and Gasol is on pace to have his third-best rebounding total in his nine-year career. You should expect a stable stat line here, with some blocks and steals thrown in.
Other centers to consider:Andre Drummond, DET at IND ($9,100); Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs. POR ($8,500); if Jusuf Nurkic sits, Serge Ibaka, TOR vs. BKN ($6,100)
Always check your lineups before tip-offs for late scratches and injuries – if you don't, that will only lead you to The Dark Side. OK, that was the last one, promise.
