This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
The last NBA slate before the calendar flips to 2018 is an interesting five-game evening ledger that boasts Lakers-Rockets as its marquee matchup. Russell Westbrook's presence on the schedule gives us a decision to make at the elite level at guard, while big men Joel Embiid and Blake Griffin are both certainly worthy of consideration. With plenty of decisions to make, let's try to identify who can help you ring in the new year with some profits:
GUARDS:
Premium Option
James Harden, HOU vs. LAL ($22,000): With a day off Saturday to cool his heels, a frustrated Harden should be back to normal for a prime matchup against the Lakers to wrap up the 2017 calendar year. Los Angeles comes in allowing the third-most fantasy points (51.6) to two-guards on the season, along with the most points (30.5) and fifth-most made three-pointers (3.9). The Beard just eviscerated this same squad for 71.25 fantasy points on the strength of a 51-point performance Dec. 20, which was preceded by a 58.50 tally Dec. 3. Chris Paul's recent return isn't cause for concern, either, as Harden sports a 33.1 percent usage rate and averages 1.38 fantasy points per minute with Paul on the floor thus far this season.
Mid-Tier
Lou Williams, LAC vs. CHA ($12,900): For those that can afford him, Devin Booker ($17,000) is certainly an option against a Sixers defense that's often been vulnerable to shooting guards. However, Williams is primed to potentially outpace his price by a notable margin against a Hornets team that comes in allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (51.3) to two-guards, including 59.9 over the last five games. They've also surrendered the third-most points (30.1) and 3.7 made three-pointers per contest to the position on the season, while Williams has scored between 29.25 and 54.00 fantasy points in his last four contests, and had scored over 30 on another six occasions in December. Even with Blake Griffin returning against the Lakers on Friday and playing a solid amount of minutes, Williams still encouragingly posted 32.75 fantasy points, easing some concerns regarding how the latter's return would affect him.
Affordable
T.J. McConnell, PHI at PHO ($8,700): McConnell is enjoying a robust role off the bench, one that's led to him seeing between 20 and 33 minutes in seven straight contests. He's scored between 27.25 and 31.75 in his last three games as well, leaving him very reasonably priced for an inviting matchup versus the Suns. Phoenix comes in allowing the most fantasy points (53.0) to point guards on the season, along with the second-most points (25.4), most rebounds (7.6), most steals (2.8), fourth-most made three-pointers (2.5) and third-highest shooting percentage (45.0).
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Premium
Joel Embiid, PHI at PHO ($18,500): Embiid should be good to go after getting the night off Saturday against the Nuggets, leaving him well-rested for a matchup against the Suns' highly porous defense against centers. Phoenix is ranked league-worst in fantasy points allowed (41.8) to fives on the season as well, and they've also yielded the most (47.3) to the position in the last five contests. What's more, they've surrendered the second-most points (17.7) and rebounds (12.3) to centers on the season, while Embiid has scored under 47.75 fantasy points only once in his last seven games, providing a glimpse at his considerable upside. In addition to what should be dominant performance in the paint, Embiid could well extend his current hot streak from long distance Sunday, one that's seen him shoot 47.4 percent from behind the arc on an average of 6.3 three-point attempts in the last three contests.
Mid-Tier
Dwight Howard, CHA at LAC ($15,000): Howard already posted a 16-point, 16-rebound double-double against the Clippers back on Nov. 18, and he's coming off a season-high 29-point tally versus the Warriors on Friday that helped net 57.25 fantasy points. He'd scored 47.50 and 43.75 in the prior two games as well, and has posted between 36.75 and 67.50 fantasy points in six other contests in December. Those figures provide a glimpse of his massive upside in the right matchup, and Sunday's qualifies as one. The Clippers come in allowing the eighth-most fantasy points (38.5) to centers over the last 10 games, along with the second-most rebounds (12.6) and most steals (1.9) to the position over that span.
Affordable
Frank Kaminsky, CHA at LAC ($8,100): There are a number of interesting tournament punt play candidates at forward/center Sunday, including the Mavericks' duo of Maxi Kleber ($7,500) and Dwight Powell ($6,100). However, Kaminsky offers some appealing upside at his current price as well, as most recently evidenced by the fact that he's scored between 23.50 and 38.25 fantasy points in four of the last six contests. He's been active when on the floor as of late, putting up an average of 9.2 shot attempts across a modest 23.8 minutes in the last five games. That type of usage bodes well against a Clippers squad that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points (46.0) to power forwards on the season, along with 1.7 made three-pointers and a 46.0 percent success rate from the field. Meanwhile, Kaminsky comes in posting career bests in overall shooting (43.2 percent) and three-point shooting (34.6 percent).
UTILITY:
T.J. Warren, PHO vs. PHI ($12,500): Warren remains one of the Suns' principal sources of scoring, and his 26.8 percent usage rate is second only to Booker on the team. He's also scored between 32.75 and 45.50 fantasy points in five of his last six games, including 41.00 against the Kings on Friday despite Booker being active and logging 32 minutes. The Sixers set up as an appealing matchup as well, as they've allowed the seventh-most fantasy points (43.7) to threes on the season, including the sixth-most (47.0) over the last 10.
Clint Capela, HOU vs. LAL ($12,200): Capela compiled a solid 31.25 fantasy points over just 22 minutes against this same Lakers squad on Dec. 3, and he should be primed for more run Sunday against one of the more vulnerable frontcourts in the NBA. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points (38.8) to centers on the campaign, including 40.6 over the last five. They also rank in the bottom five or 10 in points (16.7), rebounds (11.5), blocks (1.8) and shooting percentage (58.0) surrendered to the position, while Capela is averaging career highs in all of those categories despite logging a relatively modest 25.6 minutes per contest.
