This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
The NBA has the perfect remedy for post-Super Bowl hangovers with a seven-game Monday night slate that features just one player priced over the $20K threshold. That leaves plenty of options in the mid-tier, and fortunately there's solid value to be had that will allow for some balanced lineup construction. With a number of advantageous individual matchups to exploit, let's dive right in to our analysis.
GUARD
Damian Lillard, POR at DET ($15,700): Lillard is in the midst of one of his most productive stretches of the season, eclipsing 40 fantasy points on six occasions and 50 fantasy points in five other instances over his last 13 games. The All-Star guard is boasting an impressive 61.8 effective field-goal percentage and 28.4 percent usage rate during that stretch, along with averages of 1.31 points per possession and 1.26 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, the Pistons continue to struggle against point guards, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game (46.1) to the position on the season, along with the second-highest shooting percentage (44.0). Given that he's virtually been a lock for 40 fantasy points on most nights recently, Lillard is poised to return solid value on a price that's reasonable relative to his recent production.
Ricky Rubio, UTA at NO ($12,200): Rubio has been on a heater in his own right recently, scoring between 40.00 and 50.75 fantasy points in the last three contests and hitting or exceeding the 30-point mark four out of five. The veteran point guard has encouragingly taken double-digit shot attempts in five games during that eight-game sample, and he'll be in a matchup conducive to more of the same Monday. The Pelicans come in allowing the second-most fantasy points per game (49.1) to point guards on the season -- including 54.9 over the last 10 – along with the third-most points (23.9), third-most rebounds (6.8), third-most assists (8.9), third-most steals (2.1) and most made three-pointers (2.8). With no shortage of paths to fantasy success, Rubio could well deliver another handsome return on a modest price.
Buddy Hield, SAC vs. CHI ($9,000): Hield saw an unexpected two-game downturn recently where he scored just 3.00 and 8.75 fantasy points, but he's bounced back with 28.75 and 22.00 fantasy points in the subsequent pair of contests. He'd scored between 28.25 and 32.75 in five other contests over the last 10 as well, giving him plenty of upside at his current price. The Bulls also shape up as tantalizing targets, considering their struggles against two-guards this season have included giving up the ninth-most fantasy points per game (46.6) to the position, including the fifth-most (59.2) over the last five. They're also surrendering a robust 4.2 made three-pointers and a 50.0 percent success rate from the field to twos over the latter span, while Hield is shooting an impressive 46.8 percent – including 44.4 percent from distance – over the last seven.
FORWARD/CENTER
Anthony Davis, NO vs. UTA ($21,100): Davis is essentially a lock at the top price tier any time he's on the slate moving forward, even in a less-than-favorable matchup against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz. Utah has actually been much more vulnerable to fives recently anyhow, as the 44.9 fantasy points per game they've allowed to centers over the last five – eighth-most during that span – is a notable bump from the 32.5 they've yielded to the position on the season. Davis has had little trouble against the Jazz in two previous contests, averaging 24.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.0 blocks across 36.0 minutes. Moreover, he's scored 56.25 to 64.00 fantasy points in the four games since DeMarcus Cousins' season-ending injury, a span during which he's sporting a massive 36.3 percent usage rate and averaging 1.55 fantasy points per minute.
Andre Drummond, DET vs. POR ($16,900): Drummond has been providing Davis-like numbers recently as well, posting tallies of 64.00, 71.00 and 83.00 fantasy points in three of his last six games, and eclipsing the 50-point mark in two other contests over the last 10. He's usually a lock for double-digit rebounds and has compiled six consecutive double-doubles as well, making him a solid play for either cash or GPPs despite his rising price. The Trail Blazers had been relatively effective at defending centers for the bulk of the season but have been increasingly vulnerable of late, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game (43.3) to the position over the last 10, including the second-most (50.3) over the last five. A large part of that significant increase during the latter span has been due to poor defense on the glass (15.4 rebounds per game allowed), which particularly spells trouble against Drummond's skill set.
Marcin Gortat, WAS at IND ($9,900): For those that have the cash to spend up a bit more, the trio of Trey Lyles ($11,500), Derrick Favors ($11,300) and Zach Randolph ($11,000) all offer solid upside at their price points. However, Gortat comes at an even bigger discount and has been the beneficiary of a recent bump in playing time due to John Wall's knee injury. The big man has logged 24 to 26 minutes in the last three contests after seeing no more than 20 in the prior five. He's parlayed the extended run into fantasy-point tallies of between 20.25 and 29.25 in that three-game sample, and he'll be poised for more of the same Monday. The Pacers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (36.9) to centers on the season -- including 39.3 over the last 10 -- and the highest shooting percentage (59.0). They've also yielded the eighth-most points in the paint (45.9), an area of the floor where Gortat compiles 72.1 percent of his scoring.
UTILITY
Kemba Walker, CHA at DEN ($16,000): Walker had somewhat of an unusual outing against the Suns on Sunday, putting together an extremely quiet first quarter and not scoring at all in the final period. However, he still managed to compile 30.00 fantasy points over 34 minutes, and he should be primed for a bounce-back effort Monday against a Nuggets squad that's allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (46.3) to point guards on the season, including the second-most (63.3) over the last five. They've also yielded league-worst or bottom-five figures in multiple other categories against the position, while Walker had eclipsed 50 fantasy points in three of the four games prior to Sunday and has averaged 20.1 shot attempts over his last 10 contests, a notable uptick from the 17.8 he's averaged for the season.
Kelly Olynyk, MIA vs. ORL ($10,200): Hassan Whiteside remains questionable for Monday's contest after missing Saturday's game with the stomach flu, but Olynyk is in play at a very reasonable price regardless of the former's status. He shined while drawing the start for Whiteside versus the Pistons on Saturday, compiling 38.00 fantasy points over 40 minutes. However, he'd been thriving in his usual high-usage bench role in prior games as well, scoring 26.00 to 30.50 fantasy points in four of the previous five contests. He's rattled off 11 straight double-digit scoring efforts overall while posting a 29.3 percent usage rate and averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute during that span, excellent metrics at his current cost. The Magic shape up as likely facilitators of more of the same given that they've allowed 43.8 fantasy points per game to power forwards over the last five, the sixth-most fantasy points (35.8) to centers on the season, and averages of 14.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals across 27.7 minutes to Olynyk over three prior meetings this season.
