This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
After a busy last three days, the NBA powers down a bit Thursday with a modest four-game slate. The choices narrow significantly as a result, particularly if you're looking to pay up. Luckily, there's still plenty to like at the mid-tier and value levels, so balanced lineup construction shouldn't be too much of a challenge, especially given FantasyDraft's unique roster design. That being said, let's get to the business of identifying the most prudent investments on the night:
GUARDS:
Damian Lillard, POR vs. MIN ($17,500): Lillard has averaged 23.0 points, 9.0 assists and 6.0 rebounds across 34.7 minutes in three games versus the T-Wolves this season, and he comes into Thursday's contest on a torrid tear. The All-Star point guard has scored 46.25 to 69.25 fantasy points in five of the last six games, a span during which he's sporting a massive 37.8 percent usage rate while averaging 1.33 points per possession and 1.50 fantasy points per minute. Minnesota has been effective against point guards overall this season, but they're still allowing the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to backcourts (48.2) and highest shooting percentage (45.0) to point guards on the campaign. They're also allowing the fifth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (31.1), while Lillard is taking a robust 9.0 three-point attempts over his last 10 contests.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL at MIA ($12,000): KCP has provided some excellent all-around lines for a two-guard recently, as he's double-doubled in two of the last four contests and is averaging an unusually high 9.2 rebounds in his last five games. That production has helped lead to fantasy-point tallies between 29.00 and 49.75 over the last seven, and he'll draw a matchup Thursday that could well afford more of the same. The Heat have struggled against shooting guards all season, allowing the second-most fantasy points (44.6), most points (25.5), second-most rebounds (6.9), sixth-most made threes (3.0) and fourth-highest shooting percentage (43.0) to the position. Given his average of 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the aforementioned seven-game span and his 52.6 percent shooting (including 53.1 percent from distance) over the last five, Caldwell-Pope is primed to provide a strong return on his modest price.
Dwyane Wade, MIA vs. LAL ($9,000): Wade was the hero with a go-ahead jumper in the closing seconds Tuesday against the Sixers, and he could be in for extended run Thursday with both Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington dealing with quad injuries. The latter is already ruled as doubtful while the former carries a questionable tag, so Wade could be poised for one of his heftier workloads since rejoining the Heat at the trade deadline. The veteran scored 37.75 fantasy points against Philadelphia on the strength of a season-high 27 points, and he'll draw another favorable matchup against a Lakers squad that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points (42.0) to shooting guards, along with bottom-10 figures in several other categories to the position. They also continue playing at the highest pace in the NBA (105.2 possessions per contest), furthering Wade's case.
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
LeBron James, CLE vs. PHI ($20,900): James' inclusion in this spot is essentially self-explanatory, given his massive usage and production. He's thrived in two prior meetings against the Sixers as well -- averaging 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists and 1.5 steals across 35.0 minutes -- and he hasn't scored less than 54.50 fantasy points in the last eight contests. He's managed a pair of triple-doubles and a double-double in the last three games as well, as his current deployment at power forward seems to be affording him even more rebounding opportunities. Philadelphia has been about middle-of-the-pack against fours in most categories, but as customary, James has transcended matchups throughout the season and will be poised to do again Thursday in what should be a competitive affair for all four quarters.
Dario Saric, PHI at CLE ($11,500): Saric is in a favorable spot in his own right, particularly at what could be considered a bargain price. The emerging big man has outpaced his cost on a consistent basis recently, scoring 30.00 or more fantasy points in seven of the past nine contests. The Cavs have been vulnerable to fours all season (although admittedly more effective lately with James frequently down low), as they've allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (39.9) to the position, along with the fourth-most made threes (1.5). Cleveland is also allowing the fourth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (32.1) on the season – including the third highest at home (33.5 percent) – while the floor-spacing Saric is shooting an impressive 41.1 percent from distance over his last 10 and averaging 6.0 three-point attempts over his last five.
Jarrett Allen, BKN at SAC ($9,500): Allen has proven worthy of his current starting role by providing solid returns in both scoring and rebounding, leading to fantasy-point totals of between 22.00 and 46.50 in seven of the last nine games. The matchup Thursday lines up well for more of the same, as the Kings have proven vulnerable in the frontcourt throughout the season. They come in allowing the seventh-highest frontcourt offensive efficiency rating (78.4), along with 43.1 fantasy points to centers over the last five games. Sacramento is also allowing the second-highest shooting percentage (68.0) to fives over the latter span, and they're yielding the third-highest offensive efficiency rating (58.3) in the paint on the campaign. The latter figure is particularly relevant when considering Allen's viability, considering he's scored 77.1 percent of his points in that area of the floor this season.
UTILITY:
Ben Simmons, PHI at CLE ($15,400): Simmons saw a downturn against the Heat in his most recent contest, but he still compiled a solid 27.50 fantasy points against one of the tougher matchups for point guards in the league. Prior to that contest, he'd scored 40.75 to 61.75 fantasy points in five of the previous six, a stretch during which he averaged 1.32 fantasy points per minute. Thursday's contest should be a competitive back-and-forth affair that projects to keep Simmons engaged for all four quarters, leaving him poised to exploit a Cavs defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to point guards on the season (43.6), including 58.3 over the last five. They're also allowing bottom-10 or bottom-five figures in scoring (20.1), assists (8.3), rebounds (6.0) and steals (1.8) to the position on the campaign, along with the highest shooting percentage (45.0). That offers Simmons no shortage of paths to fantasy success, putting him squarely in play in Thursday's marquee matchup.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC vs. BKN ($12,900): Deploying centers against the Nets has often equated to fantasy gold this season, and Cauley-Stein is a solid candidate to exploit the matchup Thursday. Cauley-Stein has scored over 30 fantasy points twice and over 40 once in the last five, and he's scored no less than 22.50 in his last six overall. He's nearly averaging a double-double (14.6 points, 9.0 rebounds) and putting up an elevated total of 13.6 shot attempts during the former span, while the Nets come in allowing the most fantasy points (39.3) to centers on the season, including the most (47.9) over the last 10. They're also surrendering the most points (16.3) and rebounds (12.4) on the campaign to fives, and they come in ranked dead last in offensive efficiency rating allowed in the paint (60.9). That latter figure dovetails well with the fact that Cauley-Stein scores 69.4 percent of his points in that area of the floor, making him a potential late-night hammer for your lineup at a reasonable price.
