This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Thursday's four-game slate will be the first time in recent memory that all the teams in play will be well-rested, so fatigue will not be a factor in our prognostications for the day.
That being said, the slate isn't short on potentially high-scoring affairs, as the current Vegas lines range from an Over/Under of 214 (Nets-Kings) to 222.5 (Sixers-Cavs) so all four games have some potential for high output.
Let's start with the marquee event of the evening, as the Sixers travel to Cleveland. LeBron James ($51) has dominated the Sixers for 66.1 and 54.3 fantasy points, and both of these games occurred with the 'old-look' Cavaliers. The Cleveland overhaul has only seemed to bolster James' ceiling, considering he's averaging a double-double and 57.2 fantasy points per game since the All-Star break. There's no question that he will be highly owned, so you have to lock in James in all but the most contrarian of lineups. The same holds true for Joel Embiid ($43) who is the second highest priced player on the slate. Even though Embiid has experienced some volatility, he's only had one game in his past 10 where he's dipped below 36 fantasy points. An Embiid/James stack seems like an almost inevitable play in order to keep pace in cash lineups, so our job for this article is to help you afford that and also find some pivot plays for your tournaments as there are some other ways to go, especially in the Lakers-Heat game. The only contest I really see fading completely is the Nets-Kings game. This should be a messy one, and I can find equal value elsewhere.
As per usual, I'll highlight three players at each position, with an additional list at each spot that holds equal weight in my predictions. With this slate in particular, I'll be discussing some deep values and situational plays that might require some last-minute homework.
GUARDS:
Damian Lillard, POR vs. MIN ($41): An obvious play here, as his floor is going to be around 35 fantasy points on a nightly basis, and is going to be the contrarian alternative to Ben Simmons ($35), who I won't be highlighting but obviously sports some excellent value in a Philly stack. If you're wanting to spread your output around, Lillard is a logical first place to go.
From here, it becomes an issue of which injury situation you want to exploit. On one end, Lonzo Ball ($21) and Isaiah Thomas ($19) will be stepping into larger roles in LA with Josh Hart (hand) out for the foreseeable future. On the other end, Miami is dealing with some question marks in their backcourt, with both Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson listed as out. I'm obviously sliding past some great plays to discuss these two spots, but here are my two other highlighted guards, based on these two situations.
Lonzo Ball, LAL at MIIA ($21): While his minutes have been restricted, I think that time has come to an end due to Hart's injury. Ball has to step in and make some magic happen at the point, and there's been strong statistical correlation to indicate that he's ready to start pumping out some big stat lines. While you could make a case for Caldwell-Pope or Thomas as sensible plays without Hart, Ball has the keys to the franchise, and people want to see him live up to that mile-high poster hanging in front of the Staples Center.
Dwyane Wade, MIA vs. LAL ($15): With a handful of injuries in Miami's backcourt, Wade is healthy, well-rested, and the Miami crowd loves having him back. While some might consider this a risky play, I like Wade all over my lineups on Thursday, as he doesn't need much in terms of fantasy points to hit value. With both Johnson and Ellington out, you also have to give some love to Josh Richardson ($22), who could see 30-35 minutes with holes to be filled in the first unit.
Other guards to consider: Goran Dragic, MIA vs. LAL ($25), D'Angelo Russell, BKN at SAC ($22), C.J. McCollum, POR vs.MIN ($24), J.J. Redick, PHI at CLE ($15)
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FORWARDS:
It's a paltry list for this slate, which only highlights the need to make James a chalk, but here are some other options.
Dario Saric, PHI at CLE ($21): I'm going with Saric over Andrew Wiggins at this price point due to a more consistent post-All-Star Break resume. Both are going to offer a decent floor and I think the potential is higher for Saric to exceed projections with Cedi Osman holding the wing defensively. I think it's highly unlikely that Saric will pair off with James that often. Embiid will want to have some private time with LeBron, giving Saric lots of opportunities.
DeMarre Carroll, BKN at SAC ($18): I know, I know, I said I'd avoid this game, but there isn't a lot to like at forward on this slate. Carroll would need a 30-plus fantasy point game to beat value here and that's a reasonable floor for him against the Kings, but what you're really doing here is hoping for one of those explosive games that he is definitely capable of throwing up. He won't have wide ownership for me (or with anyone), but he's a decent filler if you don't believe what I'm saying about Wade.
Nemanja Bjelica, MIN at POR ($15): There's definitely a faction of people who think Jamal Crawford will end up as the primary beneficiary in Jimmy Butler's absence, but I am not one of them. Bjelica has looked great when they actually give him looks, but up until their most recent game they've been reticent to include him in the offensive game flow. Karl-Anthony Towns has been bottled up against Portland this season so they are going to need some frontcourt support.
Other Forwards to consider: Brandon Ingram, LAL at MIA ($28), Zach Randolph, SAC vs. BKN ($19)
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CENTER:
As stated above, I'd resist the temptation to go with Karl-Anthony Towns against Portland, considering he's really struggled with his production against them this season. While he could surprise us, it's not worth the risk at the price he's commanding.
Julius Randle, LAL at MIA ($31): Randle could find his way into my lineup alongside Embiid, as he's done a great job playing multiple positions in the frontcourt and has put up 35 or more fantasy points in four straight games. He's been the most dominant player inside for LA since it was decided that he'd be sticking around at the trade deadline.
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. LAL ($27): These two teams have yet to meet so there isn't much to go on here, but I think Randle and Whiteside are likely to both flirt with double-double territory, with a slight nod to Whiteside, who's been enjoying Dwyane Wade's assists when they've both been on the court together.
Jarrett Allen, BKN at SAC ($14): He's strung together three decent games and is currently the presumptive starter at the five. I can't really start him with a straight face, but I have to give you something cheap to look at, right? If he can replicate his recent production, he can definitely meet value at this price.
Other centers to consider: Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. MIN ($23)
