FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Monday night's seven-game slate has one potential scoreboard-busting affair (Lakers-Blazers) and several postseason hopefuls in action. There's also multiple key injuries to consider, and a solid selection of high-priced talent to choose from when building lineups. There's no shortage of factors to break down, so let's dive right into what promises to be an intriguing night of DFS action:

GUARDS

Devin Booker, PHO at MIA ($8,200): Kyrie Irving ($8,500) was originally slated for this spot in a solid matchup against the Bulls, but he's been declared out for the contest due to a knee injury. While Victor Oladipo ($9,500) is always worthy of consideration at the upper tier, I'm not entirely convinced he'll pay off his price against a Bucks squad that ranks as the second-stingiest against shooting guards in terms of fantasy production and that he's only averaged 18.0 points against in two games. That brings Booker squarely into play against a Heat squad he already lit up for 30 points, six assists, three rebounds and one steal across 37 minutes in one prior meeting. He's also averaging a whopping 26.3 shot attempts over the last five games -- scoring 47.3 to 62.5 fantasy points in four of those contests – and is draining an impressive 45.2 percent of his shots away from his home floor (as compared to 41.5 percent at Talking Stick Resort Arena). Moreover, Miami is allowing the eighth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (32.0) over the last three, a notable bump over their 27.1 percent season figure in that category.

C.J. McCollum, POR at LAL ($7,400): McCollum rewarded those who rostered him Saturday against the Thunder with 53.6 FD fantasy points, and his matchup Monday leaves him poised for another potentially spectacular return. The Lakers come in playing at the fastest pace in the NBA (105.2 possessions per game) and allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (39.2) to two-guards, along with the fifth-most made three-pointers (2.9). McCollum has put up over 20 shot attempts in five of his last seven games as well, leading to a robust 28.4 percent usage rate during that stretch that could see a bump in what could be a high-scoring affair.

George Hill, CLE vs. DET ($5,200): Hill has been all over the place in terms of fantasy production since joining the Cavs, scoring 25.8 to 45.1 FD fantasy points in three games while posting 8.9 to 17.1 in three others. That makes him much more of a tournament option, but one that carries only modest risk at his current price. Moreover, the Pistons haven't exactly offered much resistance to point guards, allowing the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating (26.1) to ones on the campaign, as well as 40.0 FD fantasy points per game -- including the third most (53.8) over the last 10. They're also yielding the most assists (10.5) and made threes (3.9) to the position over the latter span, giving Hill multiple paths to fantasy success in a game Cleveland badly needs to stop their latest slide.

FORWARDS

LeBron James, CLE vs. DET ($12,500): James has triple-doubled in three of his past five games and has scored no less than 51.00 to 72.5 fantasy points in the last 10 contests, a span during which he's sporting a 31.5 percent usage rate and averaging 1.50 FD fantasy points per minute. His Nov. 17 showing against the Clippers -- a contest in which he often faced off with Blake Griffin – is also worth noting, as LeBron posted 39 points, 14 rebounds and six assists over 46 minutes. He should see plenty of Griffin again Monday while playing power forward, a position that the Pistons have actually been more vulnerable against since Griffin's arrival (56.7 FD fantasy points allowed over the last 10, including 61.9 over the last five). With the Cavs in midst of another slide, James' usage will undoubtedly be through the roof in what amounts to another pivotal matchup for Cleveland's postseason positioning.

Julius Randle, LAL vs. POR ($7,500): Randle comes into Monday on an extended stretch of impressive play, having scored at least 30 FD fantasy points in six straight, and in 10 of the last 12 overall. That entire stretch includes five games with more than 40 fantasy points, along with a 27.1 percent usage rate and average of 1.18 FD fantasy points per minute. Randle's offensive involvement is up overall, as he's also averaging over three more shot attempts per contest over his season figure during the last 10 (13.8, compared to 10.5). He's drained 66.7 percent of his attempts against the Trail Blazers in two prior meetings this season as well, and Portland has proven increasingly vulnerable to power forwards recently. The Blazers come into Monday's contest allowing 49.4 fantasy points to fours over the last 10, an appreciable bump over the 40.0 they've yielded on the season. Moreover, they've seen a significant spike in the production they've allowed in the paint, as they're yielding eight additional points per contest in that area of the floor over their season figure in the last three (50.7, as compared to 42.1), while Randle is logging a career-high 72.3 percent of his scoring near the basket this season.

James Johnson, MIA vs. PHO ($4,500): Johnson has been a bit hard to trust this season, but his tournament upside, favorable matchup and exceedingly reasonable price makes it a lot easier to deal with the risk. The veteran has also been on an upswing recently, scoring 21.8 to 37.3 FD fantasy points in seven of the last eight games. He's been even hotter recently, draining 60.0 percent of his shots over the last three. Meanwhile, the Suns have been a sieve against power forwards all season and have allowed the most fantasy points (61.5) to the position over the last 10, while their fourth-fastest pace of play (103.6 possessions per game) should give Johnson a few extra opportunities to pay off his very reasonable cost.

CENTERS

Andre Drummond, DET at CLE ($10,100): Drummond is coming off a 59.6 fantasy-point haul against the Heat on Saturday night, and he's averaged 15.3 points, 13.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.3 steals across 32.7 minutes in three games against Cleveland this season, which includes a mammoth 72.9 fantasy-point outing in his most recent meeting with them on Jan. 30. The Cavaliers will also be missing Tristan Thompson (ankle) Monday, likely matching Drummond up frequently against Larry Nance, Jr. who'll he enjoy a two-inch height advantage over. Cleveland already comes in showing more vulnerability to centers recently, as they've yielded 39.3 FD fantasy points in the last 10 to the position, a notable bump over their 31.8 season figure. Cleveland's propensity for allowing points near the basket (46.6 points in the paint allowed, seventh most in the NBA) also bodes well for Drummond, who's logged 79.4 percent of his scoring in the paint this season.

Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. PHO ($7,500): Whiteside posted an efficient 23-point, 10-rebound double-double that also included one assist, four blocks and one steal over 28 minutes in his one prior meeting against the Suns. He's also scored over 30 FD fantasy points on seven occasions and more than 40 in two other instances over the last 10, a span during which he sports a 24.4 percent usage rate and is averaging 1.30 FD fantasy points per minute. The Suns' considerable vulnerabilities down low put him squarely in play at a reasonable cost Monday, considering they've allowed the fourth-most FD fantasy points to centers on the season (34.1), including the seventh most (44.1) over the last five. They're also yielding the third-most blocks (2.4) over the latter span, a category that serves as one of Whiteside's most consistent sources of fantasy production. The Suns' tendency to surrender points in the paint, especially on the road (48.5 per game, third highest in the league) is yet another point in Whiteside's favor, considering he logs 72.9 percent of his scoring in that area of the floor.

Greg Monroe, BOS at CHI ($3,900): Monroe paid off handsomely against the Rockets at a bargain price Saturday, scoring 32.9 FD fantasy points over just 19 minutes. It's far from the only efficient performance he's turned in since donning a Celtics uniform, as he'd also posted 22 to 23.8 fantasy points in three of the four games prior, despite playing no more than 20 minutes in any of those games. The Bulls have had no answer for centers, either, as they've allowed the second-most fantasy points (34.3) to the position on the season, including 45.5 over the last five. Chicago's eighth-highest pace of play (102.0 possessions per game) also dovetails nicely with Monroe's usual aggressiveness on offense when on the floor, making him particularly appealing at a price that's just $400 away from minimum.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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