This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have eight games on tap on a busy Tuesday night, capped off with two potential track meets out west in Nets-Warriors and Pelicans-Clippers. There's a number of high-priced options to pick from, with quite a few of them in strong individual matchups. As is usually the case this time of year, there's also lots of playoff positioning at stake as well, leaving us poised for an interesting night overall. With lots to dissect, let's dive right in:
GUARDS
James Harden, HOU at OKC ($11,400): Harden already touched up the Thunder for 29 points, 14 assists, eight rebounds, two steals and one block across 39 minutes in one prior contest this season. He's also scored over 50 FD fantasy points twice and more than 60 once over the last five games, a stretch during which he's sporting a 35.9 percent usage rate and averaging 1.49 FD fantasy points per minute. He's shot appreciably better away from Toyota Center (45.9 percent, as opposed to 43.7 percent at home) as well, while OKC has been vulnerable to two-guards the majority of the season, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (39.6) to the position, including 56.5 over the last 10 contests. Furthermore, they're surrendering the third-highest percentage (32.2) of scoring from three-pointers on the campaign overall, which could certainly spell trouble against Harden's long-range marksmanship.
Bradley Beal, WAS vs. MIA ($8,500): Beal is averaging 26.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals across 39.5 minutes in two games against the Heat this season, and he's scored 36.9 to 51.2 FD fantasy points in six of the last seven contests overall. Miami comes in allowing 39.7 FD fantasy points to two-guards over the last 10 games, along with a solid 44.0 percent success rate from the field. Beal also continues to sport an impressive usage rate (30.3 percent) and fantasy-point efficiency (1.10 fantasy points per minute) with backcourt mate John Wall off the floor, leaving him poised for another potentially strong return Tuesday.
Rajon Rondo, NO at LAC ($6,500): Milos Teodosic ($4,400) is an option in this same matchup for those that need the savings, but Rondo brings considerably more upside. He's been paying off his current price handsomely of late, scoring 38.8 to 43.6 FD fantasy points in three of his last four, and a respectable 25 in the other contest during that span. Rondo is averaging 1.10 FD fantasy points per minute during that stretch, and Tuesday's up-tempo matchup should set him up for plenty of opportunities to fill out the stat sheet. Not only do the Pelicans come in playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA (105.1 possessions per game) – including over the last three (108.0) – but the Clippers make for an appealing dance partner, considering they're generating the seventh-most possessions on the season (102.1) in their own right. Los Angeles has also been vulnerable to ones recently, allowing 44.6 FD fantasy points to point guards over the last 10, a notable bump over their 37.3 season figure.
FORWARDS
Paul George, OKC vs. HOU ($8,600): Paul shot 53.3 percent on his way to 24 points in his one prior meeting with the Rockets this season, a game in which he also posted five rebounds, four assists and one steal. The All-Star forward has been over 40 FD fantasy points in three of his last four as well, and he draws a favorable matchup against a Rockets squad that's allowed 35.3 FD fantasy points on the season to small forwards, along with the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating (21.5). George is putting up an elevated total of 18.7 shot attempts over his last 10, part of a 26.9 percent usage rate that's second only to Russell Westbrook on the team during that span.
Dario Saric, PHI at CHA ($6,900): Saric has crossed 30 FD fantasy points in two of the last four, and he could be poised for more of the same against a Hornets squad that's laid out the welcome mat for power forwards recently. Charlotte comes in allowing the 56.0 FD fantasy points to power forwards over the last five, a drastic increase over their 38.7 season figure. Moreover, they're allowing the third-highest shooting percentage (55.0) to the position over the former span, while Saric is shooting an impressive 54.3 percent – including 47.6 percent from distance – over the aforementioned four-game sample. The Hornets also yield the sixth-highest percentage (30.9) of scoring from three-pointers, furthering Saric's case at a reasonable price.
Montrezl Harrell, LAC vs. NOP ($5,000): Marvin Williams ($3,600) makes for a GPP-only punt play at just $100 away from minimum if you need to save, but Harrell is worth the extra cash if you've got it. As mentioned previously, the Clippers-Pelicans tilt should be one of the fastest paced of the night, which plays right into the ultra-aggressive Harrell's wheelhouse. The third-year forward is averaging 9.4 shot attempts over a modest 21.0 minutes in the last six contests, a span during which he's averaging 15.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.0 blocks while shooting a blistering 68.1 percent. The Pelicans are allowing the fourth-most FD fantasy points (42.3) to power forwards -- including 47.4 over the last five – and they're yielding the fifth-most points in the paint (47.4) on the season, including 51.3 over the last three. Harrell is logging 80.4 percent of his scoring in that area of the floor, making him an ideal match to that vulnerability and brightening his overall prospects in what should be a high-scoring affair.
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN at DAL ($9,700): Jokic has scored 65.1 and 49.7 fantasy points, respectively, in two games against the Mavericks this season, nearly averaging a triple-double with 20.0 points, 17.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steals across 36.4 minutes. Dallas comes in allowing the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (31.2), along with the third-highest shooting percentage (55.0) to the position. The Mavs' shooting struggles (44.5 percent, fifth-lowest in the NBA) should also set Jokic up with plenty of opportunities to round out his fantasy line on the glass and pay off what is a slightly reduced price from its peak earlier in the season.
DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. NO ($7,900): Jordan is averaging 12.0 points, 16.5 rebounds and 1.0 steals across 36 minutes in two games against the Pelicans this season, and he's scored 38.6 to 60.1 fantasy points in six of his last eight contests. The big man is averaging an impressive 1.38 FD fantasy points per minute over that stretch, numbers that could arguably warrant a higher price than he's currently sporting. His recent production and upside thus make him an appealing play against a Pelicans squad whose previously mentioned susceptibility to allowing points in the paint dovetails nicely with the fact that Jordan logs 80.9 percent of his scoring in that part of the floor.
Marcin Gortat, WAS vs. MIA ($4,100): Gortat's minutes typically don't exceed the mid-20s these days, but he's often able to parlay the modest time on the court into what would be considered a strong return on his current discounted price. The Polish Hammer has scored 18.9 to 31 FD fantasy points in four of the last five games, while the Heat has seen an uptick in the amount of scoring they've allowed in the paint over the last three (47.3, compared to 43.6 for the season). Gortat logs the majority of his scoring near the basket (73.7 percent), and the flexibility his price provides could certainly pay off on a night when there's no shortage of high-priced options.
