This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Saturday's two-game slate gives us our first game in the second round, and this Pelicans-Warriors series should prove to be fun to watch as Golden State faces their first true challenge on their march to the Finals. While the Pelicans' recent play has far outweighed expectations, we'd do well to take a look at how they fared against the Warriors in the regular season. The Pelicans only beat the Warriors once in one of the final regular-season games on April 7th in a game where Steph Curry didn't play and several Warriors saw limited minutes. The other three games were all earlier in the season during the DeMarcus Cousins era, and Davis wasn't even on the floor in one of those games. All three of the Warriors' wins were dominated by Steph Curry, so he emerges as the big wild-card coming into Game 1. If he plays, it will change the game script considerably. Loading up on this game carries a little more risk than I'd like, but with an Over/Under line of 224 this matchup is easily the better contest to focus on.
Meanwhile, the Bucks and Celtics will battle for a berth in the second round. From a fantasy perspective, the game should be a bit of a clunker as Vegas is setting an Over/Under line of 195.5. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($53) is by far the most expensive guy in this matchup, and the nearest player salary-wise is Khris Middleton ($25), who shows up at more than half the price. A menagerie of players will come cheap here, but in terms of exposure I can't see myself using more than 20 percent of my lineup on this game.
Along with Giannis, Anthony Davis ($58) and Kevin Durant ($48) round out the high-priced options on the slate. While I like Giannis and Durant in cash lineups, Davis' high price will really limit my ability to play other options in that game and I will be forced to find value on the other end of the slate. Even with all this in mind, you'll find out below that Yahoo's player designations at center leave a lot to be desired and at least at Yahoo, Davis might be a requirement.
I'll now highlight two players at each position accompanied by a player that I recommend fading on Saturday. When possible I will select a high-priced and lower-priced option in each category.
GUARDS
At least for Game 1, I am constructing lineups working on the likelihood that Curry won't see the floor tonight. If we see reports that he'll start with a full complement of minutes, I'm inclined to get him into a few tournament lineups.
Jrue Holiday, NO at GS ($39): Holiday has beaten projections in all four games against the Warriors this season and his output climbed with every matchup, culminating in a 54 YFP showing in April. He had two games below 40 YFP in the series against Portland but he has a ceiling that can easily eclipse 50 YFP. If Curry is absent or limited, Golden State should struggle to cover Holiday as the team will put a lot of focus on defending the Pelicans' interior attack.
Klay Thompson, GS vs. NO ($22): Thompson has remained at a cheap price in the postseason, and I like his chances at the price even if we do see Curry on the floor. There's a usage differential of about three percent for Thompson when Curry plays, so I'm confident that the game flow will cooperate in this pick regardless of Curry's status.
Other guards to consider: If Curry sits, Andre Iguodala, GS vs. NO ($12)
GUARD TO AVOID
Marcus Smart, BOS vs. MIL ($16): Smart isn't completely 100 percent and I think he could come in to provide some spark for the Celtics, but with their season on the line I think they will opt to put a premium on playing Rozier and Brown in lieu of Smart. A four-week absence can wreak havoc on your shooting in a real-game scenario with such high stakes.
FORWARDS
Nikola Mirotic, NO at GS ($32): The Warriors haven't had an answer for Mirotic so far as he's blitzed them for an average of 47.5 YFP in two games this season. A good series for Mirotic is essential for the Pelicans and I think he'll deliver, provided he didn't grow his beard back – he plays much better without it.
Jabari Parker, MIL at BOS ($21): While John Henson could make a heroic return to the floor in the final game of the series, I wouldn't put my money on it. His back injury has kept him off the floor since April 17 and Parker has garnered the most benefit from his absence. I'd actually have no problem pivoting over to Henson at $16 if he ends up starting in this game. But, with that outcome in serious doubt I think $21 is a reasonable price for Parker.
Other Forward to consider: Draymond Green, GS vs. NO ($30)
FORWARD TO AVOID
Khris Middleton, MIL at BOS ($35): I'm required to say 'avoid' or 'fade' here but I think it's a little harsh for Middleton. I'm just not playing him because Mirotic will get the lion's share of my attention in this spot. Couple that with the ability to get Green for $5 less, and Middleton becomes a bit of an awkward play. He might find a spot on a tournament lineup for me because of his low-ownership potential, but that's it.
CENTERS
Thon Maker, MIL at BOS ($13): Like I said above, you have to hold your nose while pressing click if you aren't going with Davis in this spot due to the limited player designation at this position. I would go with John Henson in a heartbeat if it looks like he'll play, in which case I'd move off Parker as well, but right now Maker is the best option for the Bucks.
JaVale McGee, GS vs. NO ($10): The saving grace at this position could very well be McGee, who played admirably against the Spurs. Coach Steve Kerr has been coy about who will start at center against the Pelicans, but I feel like McGee will have the better stat line even if Zaza Pachulia is in the first unit. Going in this direction will definitely save you some cash.
CENTER TO AVOID
Greg Monroe, BOS vs. MIL ($12): I really thought we'd see more from Monroe in this series, but he's turned out to be a huge disappointment. He's only played a TOTAL of nine minutes in the last two games after putting up respectable numbers in Games 2 and 3.With this kind of volatility, Monroe could be a sure-fire lineup killer.
