This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
It's a bit of a surprise that we find two teams on the brink of elimination in Game 4, and in both respects, it's maybe not the team you'd expect. Boston has proven that losing Kyrie Irving was survivable, and the Cavaliers have shown that they won't survive without LeBron James' heroics. Meanwhile, Philadelphia finds themselves up against it despite being a popular dark-horse pick when the playoffs began, and the No. 1 seed in the East is on the brink as well. Toronto still can't shake their propensity to choke in pivotal games. What's comforting for DFS players is that we now have a decent sample size that can serve as a good predictor of where we can find some value, as well as identify some spots that aren't worth considering.
As expected, LeBron James ($58) outpaces all other options with a 12-dollar gap separating him from the rest of the pack Monday. You know what you're getting from James, so if you want a floor of 50 points for this price, he's worth spending down elsewhere. It's unlikely that anyone else on the slate will outdo him, and even if this game gets out of hand, it'll be because James has already deposited a big stat line. Before another precipitous drop we have Ben Simmons ($46) and Joel Embiid ($41), and while I like Embiid's consistent production, Simmons remains at a price that simply doesn't match his playoff performance thus far. Aside from James and Embiid, the majority of my selections will be at $32 or lower, which I will outline below.
I'll now identify two players at each position with an aim on providing one lower-priced target in each category. We'll also zero in on a player to fade at each spot.
GUARD
Terry Rozier, BOS at PHI ($32): Rozier saw a bit of a downtick in Game 3, which was likely the result of Jaylen Brown's return to the floor as a full-time participant. I think Brown is also a fine pick, but Rozier's sharpshooting and ball-handling skills will still reap huge benefits as Boston tries to close this series out. 30 YFP is a reasonable floor to expect Monday.
J.J. Redick, PHI vs. BOS ($20): I can't really find a guard spot in the other game that I'm thrilled to take at this price point, as guys like Korver, Hill and Clarkson are too volatile to go to unless you're desperate. Redick remains affordable despite being arguably the most consistent starter for the Sixers in this series. Philly will be pulling out all the stops Monday, and a pure shot from Redick can put them well on their way to extending this series.
Other guards to consider: Kyle Lowry, TOR at CLE ($30); Jaylen Brown, BOS at PHI ($23)
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GUARD TO AVOID
Delon Wright, TOR at CLE ($13): Wright's role as a sixth man has been compromised by the return of Fred VanVleet, but both of them have been nothing to write home about in this series. If you have to hit this spot, VanVleet is now the guy and I'd expect even less from the second unit Monday as the Raptors will rely on Lowry and DeRozan to carry the day.
FORWARD
Kevin Love, CLE vs. TOR ($27): Love has been an absolute beast in this series as James is demonstrating a new faith in his big man inside. Double-double potential is a definite possibility for Love as he continues to deliver huge stat lines against the Raptors, who have given him way too many opportunities in the past two contests.
Jayson Tatum, BOS at PHI ($26): It was Tatum who looked like Rookie of the Year material in Game 3, and if he can help lead Boston to the Finals, he might just make some people regret voting for Donovan Mitchell or Ben Simmons. His potential is hard to avoid at this price point despite some decent options below him, but I'm going to do my level best to lock Love and Tatum into two forward spots with confidence.
Other forwards to consider: Dario Saric, PHI vs. BOS; C.J. Miles, TOR at CLE ($10); Jeff Green, CLE vs. TOR ($10)
FORWARD TO AVOID
Serge Ibaka, TOR at CLE ($20): He roared back with a good outing in Game 3, but by and large, Ibaka's playoff performances have fallen well short of projections. He's seen 30-plus YFP games in three of his nine playoff appearances, so you're assuming considerable risk here despite his potential. Aside from a risk-reward tournament pick, I'd avoid him.
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CENTER
There's precious little room to get cute with this position. If you aren't rostering Embiid, there are really only two places you can go.
Al Horford, BOS at PHI ($29): Horford let me down a bit in Game 3 and was likely another victim of Jaylen Brown's re-emergence, but if you extract that game it's hard to find a more consistent floor than Horford's. I'm inclined to give him another opportunity as long as I don't find myself over-stacked with Celtics. There are certainly worse sins to commit, but I'd like to spread my exposure a bit more evenly.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at CLE ($21): Despite Toronto's woes, their big man has performed well in this series with three straight double-doubles, including a 21-rebound performance in Game 1. There's little doubt that we could see as much as 40 percent ownership Monday, but these playoff slates are slim!
CENTER TO AVOID
Aron Baynes, BOS at PHI ($10): There's a slew of Baynes apologists out there, but I'm not one of them. I continue to believe that the team would be better served by giving Greg Monroe some more time, but that hasn't come to pass in the post-season. Only the most desperate should even consider Baynes on Monday.
