NFL Barometer: Kupp's Targets Runneth Over

Week 12 saw some rookies further their development while one multi-time Pro Bowler reminded his doubters that he's still capable of elite performances. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' ongoing downward slide saw two of their key offensive pieces slog through another subpar week. Without further ado, let's dive into these and other notable trends heading into Week 13.

RISING

Quarterback

DeShone Kizer, Browns- While he's most certainly still a work in progress, Kizer seems to be hitting his stride as compared to some of his early-season outings. After compiling totals of between 87 and 179 passing yards in four contests between Weeks 4 and 8, Kizer has thrown for between 179 and 268 while also rushing for 118 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries over his last three contests. Granted, his 2:3 TD:INT over that span leaves plenty of room for improvement – and Kizer hasn't managed a 60.0 percent completion rate since Week 7 – but he's demonstrated solid rapport with Corey Coleman and will now have another potentially potent weapon at his disposal in the form of Josh Gordon beginning in Week 13.

Josh McCown, Jets- Coming into the season, many would have likely assumed that McCown would be riding the pine or on injured reserve by this point, but quite the opposite has been true. The 38-year-old has made all 11 starts and sports career highs in completions (235), attempts (349), completion percentage (67.3), yards (2,549) and touchdowns (17). He's played an integral part in the development of Robby Anderson while also helping resurrect the career of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, has multiple touchdown passes in six of his 11 games and has multiple completions of more than 20 yards in each contest.

Trevor Siemian, Broncos- Siemian is set for a rather unexpected second chance at the starting job in the wake of Paxton Lynch's ankle injury, and if his Week 12 showing is any indication, his stint on the bench may have served him well. Siemian completed 11 of 21 passes for 149 yards with a pair of touchdowns in comeback mode against the suspect Raiders defense, and he draws three more favorable matchups in Weeks 13-15 in the form of the Dolphins, Jets and Colts. Siemian put together some solid efforts over the first three games of the season and compiled 376 yards against the Giants back in Week 6, so there's upside to be had in the right matchup.

Running Back

Joe Mixon, Bengals- It took nearly three-quarters of the season, but Mixon's breakout game finally came in Week 12 against a Browns defense that had been tough against the run. The rookie compiled a career-best 114 yards and a touchdown on the ground while adding 51 receiving yards, leading to his most complete game as a pro. Relatively tough matchups in the form of the Steelers, Bears and Vikings await in the next three weeks, but Mixon should continue seeing plenty of volume, and the power running that often keyed his success against Cleveland should serve him well against the aforementioned stingy trio of defenses.

Isaiah Crowell, Browns- Although a 100-yard game still eludes him, Crowell has hit the 90-yard mark in two of his last three games and has averaged between 5.6 and 5.9 yards per tote in three of the past four contests. His passing game work has seen a downturn over the former span (two receptions on four targets in Weeks 10-12), but Crowell is clearly finding more running room behind a line that is now ranked ninth in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards (4.27) as per Football Outsiders, as well as third overall with only 17 percent of runs getting short-circuited behind the line of scrimmage.

Tevin Coleman, Falcons- In what has essentially been a three-game stint as the starting running back (considering Devonta Freeman exited the Week 10 contest against Dallas in the first quarter), Coleman has looked up to the task in two of them, rushing 39 times for 180 yards and three touchdowns versus the Cowboys and Buccaneers. Freeman could well be back for the Week 13 matchup against the Vikings, but given that Coleman has proven capable of handling a starter's workload, he should see a nice bump in volume over what he was getting earlier this season.

Dion Lewis / Rex Burkhead, Patriots- The concept of consistent running back usage isn't typically associated with Bill Belichick, but a seemingly reliable pattern appears to have emerged in New England this season. Lewis has seen double-digit carries in six straight contests, while Burkhead has accomplished the feat in two of the last three games himself, while also posting 16 receptions over the last four contests. Both players are seeing very similar snap counts on most weeks, and given the success the strategy has produced, it's likely they continue to be deployed in similar fashion moving forward.

Wide Receiver

Dontrelle Inman, Bears- Inman has tallied 13 catches for 195 yards in three games with the Bears, seeing a solid 22 targets over that span. He's got some NFL skins on the wall – with a 58/810/4 line in San Diego just last season serving as his carer high point – and his sure hands and route running should render him a viable security blanket for rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky for the balance of the season.

Julio Jones, Falcons- Jones had been a victim of his own high bar thus far this season, as his solid campaign had nevertheless been considered somewhat of a disappointment by many fantasy owners due to a lack of explosive outings. That all changed in resounding fashion with a 12-reception, 253-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Buccaneers, a performance that could well serve as a breakthrough in terms of how he's deployed in coordinator Steve Sarkisian's offense.

Brandin Cooks, Patriots- Cooks has parlayed 27 targets over the last three weeks into 18 catches for 306 yards and two touchdowns, with six of those receptions going over 20 yards. He's posted six receptions in each of those games, becoming one of Tom Brady's most consistent targets in an offense that typically spreads the ball around plenty. Particularly as long as Chris Hogan (shoulder) remains sidelined, Cooks has an enviable role as Brady's one true deep threat.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Raiders- Michael Crabtree is officially out of action for the next two games following his Week 12 brawl with the Broncos' Aqib Talib, while fellow wideout Amari Cooper is dealing with both an ankle injury and a concussion. That potentially leaves Patterson, who has seven receptions (on eight targets) for 127 yards over the last two games, as a starting receiver heading into Week 13's matchup against a vulnerable Giants secondary. With plenty of deep speed and what projects to be an expanded role over the next two games at a minimum, he's headed in the right direction.

Cooper Kupp / Sammy Watkins, Rams- Both Rams wideouts were bound to benefit from Robert Woods' multi-week absence due to a shoulder injury, and that much was evident in a Week 12 win over the Saints. Kupp set career highs in receptions (eight) and yards (116), while Watkins managed his best yardage total (82) since Week 3 on a season-high nine targets and logged his third touchdown over the last four games. Given the Rams' prolific passing attack, expect more of the same as long as Woods remains out of action.

Tight End

O.J. Howard, Buccaneers- Howard's six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks don't necessarily jump off the page, but relative to the rookie's production for the majority of the season, they indicate he might be finally starting to carve out a consistent role in the offense. The one caveat is that both efforts have come with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, and Howard hadn't demonstrated the same rapport with Jameis Winston before the latter went down in Week 9 with a shoulder injury.

Julius Thomas, Dolphins- Head coach Adam Gase has been making good on his recent commitment to get Thomas the ball more, as the veteran tight end has half of his 34 receptions on the season over the last four games. He's seen 23 targets over that span and has proven effective with both Jay Cutler (concussion) and Matt Moore under center. Given his familiarity with Gase's system and the uptick in usage over the last month, he looks set for continued production over the remainder of the season.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Cardinals- After heading into a Week 11 matchup against the Texans without a single reception, Seals-Jones has now posted seven catches for 126 yards and three touchdowns on just 25 snaps over the last two games. That level of efficiency is likely unsustainable, but the athletic rookie has more overall upside than the pair of veterans that technically slot ahead of him at present, Jermaine Gresham and Troy Niklas.

FALLING

Quarterback

Alex Smith, Chiefs- The atypical, early-season version of Alex Smith almost seems like a mirage at this point, as the veteran's recent numbers are much more representative of the conservative game-manager role he's largely been known for. Smith is averaging a modest 223.5 passing yards and generated a 4:4 TD:INT over the last four games, following a season-opening seven-game stretch where he's posted a trio of 300-yard efforts and a sparkling 15:0 TD:INT ratio.

Running Back

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs- Hunt has seen his own downturn in what has been a rough month for the Chiefs' offense. After an 11-carry, 17-yard day against the Bills in Week 12, Hunt's streak without a 100-yard performance stands at six games, while his last rushing touchdown came way back in Week 3. The explosive plays that made him such a hot property to open the season have mostly evaporated as well, as Hunt has only one run of more than 20 yards in the last six contests.

Ameer Abdullah, Lions- The Lions have mostly remained committed to giving Abdullah double-digit carries this season, but that approach may be reaching the point of diminishing returns. He's averaged less than 3.0 yards per tote in four of the last five weeks while posting no more than 52 yards rushing in any of those games, and with goal-line touches typically going elsewhere, his value seems to be tanking as the season enters its final month.

James White, Patriots- The days of relying on White as a PPR option may be over for the time being, as he's logged no more than 18 snaps in any of the previous three games while only seeing a modest six targets over that span. Head coach Bill Belichick seems to have settled on a backfield rotation that primarily consists of Lewis and Burkhead, both of who already offer the pass-catching prowess that White brings to the table.

DeMarco Murray, Titans- Murray's red-zone presence has helped mask some of his recent ineptitude on the ground, which has included three games with 19 or fewer rushing yards over the last four. The veteran tailback has found paydirt on the ground on three occasions while adding a receiving score on 14 catches over that span, so he's been able to salvage matters to an extent for his fantasy owners. Nevertheless, backfield mate Derrick Henry has averaged between 4.6 and 6.1 yards per carry in the last three games and has looked the more effective of the two by a wide margin.

Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker, Dolphins- Parker has struggled over the last two weeks with Moore mostly under center, bringing in only five of 12 targets for 31 yards over that span. A possible Cutler return in Week 13 could help improve his fortunes, but he's been somewhat of the forgotten man behind Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and Thomas during what is a critical juncture of the season for fantasy owners.

Doug Baldwin, Seahawks- Like Parker, Baldwin has seen a downturn over the last two contests, managing just four catches for 65 yards and a touchdown during that stretch. He's seen only nine targets in those two games after racking up 40 in his previous four; meanwhile, tight end Jimmy Graham has continued to expand his role with 17 looks and a pair of scores in those contests, and 34 targets to go along with four total touchdowns over the last four games overall.

Jordy Nelson, Packers- Nelson's fantasy success appears to have been inexorably tied to the prolific arm of Aaron Rodgers, as he's now averaged just 2.6 receptions and 20.6 yards over the last five games. With a four-catch, 35-yard effort serving as his best game during that stretch – and his last touchdown having come in Week 5 – there doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel for the former Pro Bowler.

Eric Decker, Titans- Not even Rishard Matthews' inactive status in Week 12 was enough to coax a strong performance out of Decker, who hasn't topped 37 receiving yards in the last four games. After recording 12 touchdowns with the Jets in his last full season in 2015, Decker has also found the end zone only once this season and has seen just seven red-zone looks all season. He also hasn't been targeted more than four times since Week 6, keeping him relegated to decidedly secondary status in the Titans' hierarchy of pass-catching options.

Tight End

Evan Engram, Giants- Engram was thought to be in a can't-miss situation over the last two weeks with Sterling Shepard's migraines robbing Eli Manning of yet another target, but he somehow managed to compile just four receptions for 27 yards during those contests. A possible Week 13 return for Shepard could further dampen Engram's prospects, as could the continued development of young wideouts Roger Lewis and Tavarres King.