On Target: Fitz Not Done Yet

On Target: Fitz Not Done Yet

This article is part of our On Target series.

A month in to the season and we are starting to understand who teams and players are going to be. This is football, and there will always be noise in our statistical samples, but I like to look at how teams have performed up to this point as a statistical barometer, especially when compared with their preseason projections. This is also a great time to be engaged in fantasy trading as your season isn't quite dead yet if you're 0-4 or 1-3. With that idea in mind, let's analyze red-zone conversion performance. Certain players have performed above or below skill level, which should inform how we treat them in trades and in DFS.

Click the columns to sort.

PLAYERTARGETSRECRZ CONV%TD
Larry Fitzgerald65674
Eric Decker54603
Rob Gronkowski74574
Tyler Eifert63503
Steve Johnson43502
Pierre Garcon44502
Leonard Hankerson43502
Donte Moncrief43502
Jason Witten43502
Owen Daniels42502
Randall Cobb95444
Seth Roberts53402
Brandon Marshall85383
Julio Jones85252
A.J. Green84252
Gary Barnidge42251
Clay Harbor42251
Chris Thompson43251
Kendall Wright42251
Allen Robinson41251
Greg Olsen96222
A month in to the season and we are starting to understand who teams and players are going to be. This is football, and there will always be noise in our statistical samples, but I like to look at how teams have performed up to this point as a statistical barometer, especially when compared with their preseason projections. This is also a great time to be engaged in fantasy trading as your season isn't quite dead yet if you're 0-4 or 1-3. With that idea in mind, let's analyze red-zone conversion performance. Certain players have performed above or below skill level, which should inform how we treat them in trades and in DFS.

Click the columns to sort.

PLAYERTARGETSRECRZ CONV%TD
Larry Fitzgerald65674
Eric Decker54603
Rob Gronkowski74574
Tyler Eifert63503
Steve Johnson43502
Pierre Garcon44502
Leonard Hankerson43502
Donte Moncrief43502
Jason Witten43502
Owen Daniels42502
Randall Cobb95444
Seth Roberts53402
Brandon Marshall85383
Julio Jones85252
A.J. Green84252
Gary Barnidge42251
Clay Harbor42251
Chris Thompson43251
Kendall Wright42251
Allen Robinson41251
Greg Olsen96222
Vincent Jackson94222
DeAndre Hopkins147213
Jordan Matthews54201
Scott Chandler53201
Marvin Jones52201
Eddie Royal53201
Travis Kelce51201
Jimmy Graham52201
Kyle Rudolph51201
Jordan Reed51201
Jamaal Charles55201
Anquan Boldin63171
Cecil Shorts64171
Calvin Johnson63171
Larry Donnell63171
Jeremy Maclin64171
Heath Miller75141
Julian Edelman75141
Steve Smith72141
Terrance Williams82131
Jarvis Landry12600
Mohamed Sanu6300
Jordan Cameron6100
Matt Forte5300
T.Y. Hilton5200
Jermaine Kearse4300
Theo Riddick4300
Odell Beckham4300
Cole Beasley4300
Le'Veon Bell4300
Michael Crabtree4000
DeVante Parker4000
Torrey Smith4100

The first name that should jump out is the leader in Red-zone conversion, Larry Fitzgerald. It would appear that rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. With the first competent quarterback play that he has had since, well, Palmer was last uninjured, Fitzgerald has performed like a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. This has been mostly buoyed by the fact that he's catching everything thrown his way, especially in the end zone. This is going to sound terrible, but if you can sell him for 150 percent ROI, consider it. John Brown and Michael Floyd are talented players and the Cardinals coaching staff seems pretty set on using a three-headed running back attack inside the red zone (both the Johnson's have red-zone TDs this season). This is by no means a warning shot saying that a cliff is about to emerge in front of Fitzgerald, but to expect him to continue to convert touchdowns in the red zone at a 70 percent clip is unreasonable for anyone not named Rob Gronkowski.

While I like Jarvis Landry in most PPR formats, this list is an exact illustration of the problem of relying on low efficiency slot guys for fantasy. He has 12 red-zone looks and ZERO touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton has five targets in the red zone and zero touchdowns. If you aren't as a skillful in tight spaces as a player like Randall Cobb (44 percent conversion), it's going to be hard for you to be a valuable fantasy asset. In general, Landry is overrated in most leagues, and you can probably trade him for a good number of players. Something that I might try in my leagues is packaging Landry and one of my filler RBs (think Anthony Dixon or Darren McFadden) for a player with clear RB1 upside like Todd Gurley. Landry's surface numbers look really good, but how many weeks has he won you? It's a bit of a different story in daily fantasy where Landry's week-to-week high floor can keep you afloat in cash games but for seasonal leagues, he's an overvalued asset. He should see some touchdown regression, but he will probably be a career-long underachiever in the department.

One final note on these red-zone converters: why didn't you draft Eric Decker in all your leagues? Even with bad quarterback play, Decker has always had real fantasy value because it doesn't matter which corner is covering him, he's going to be open. With at least competent QB play (that's all I'm willing to give Fitzmagic), Decker will almost always be a top-20 wide receiver, but he is never drafted or treated that way in the trade market. If you can trade for him in your league (and you should be able to unless your league-mates follow me on Twitter), I would do so immediately. Put him in the same category of Donte Moncrief in terms of players who are treated as volatile WR3s by the market but are solid week-to-week WR2s. In daily fantasy, Decker is always underowned and underpriced for his touchdown upside.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Davis Mattek
Davis Mattek has played DFS for a living for over a year and began in the fantasy sports industry in 2012. He is a member of the FSTA and FSWA.
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