This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Chargers | 30.70% | 600 | 85.71% | 4.39 |
| JETS | Redskins | 18.20% | 240 | 70.59% | 5.35 |
| Patriots | COLTS | 12.30% | 320 | 76.19% | 2.93 |
| Broncos | BROWNS | 9.50% | 185 | 64.91% | 3.33 |
| SEAHAWKS | Panthers | 8.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.13 |
| VIKINGS | Chiefs | 7.20% | 185 | 64.91% | 2.53 |
| Falcons | SAINTS | 3.90% | 170 | 62.96% | 1.44 |
| Bengals | BILLS | 3.00% | 165 | 62.26% | 1.13 |
| Cardinals | STEELERS | 2.60% | 160 | 61.54% | 1.00 |
| LIONS | Bears | 1.20% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.47 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Packers are the most heavily used team, but once again they're Vegas' first choice even with 31-percent ownership. If we compare them to the Patriots, Vegas' second choice, we can see a Packers win/Patriots loss is 20.4 percent. A Patriots win/Packers loss is 10.9 percent. The ratio of 20.4/10.9 is 1.87.
Now let's look at the payouts. The Packers have 30.7 percent of pools on them, so if they lost and the Pats won, 30.7 people out of every 100 would lose, plus another 17 or so on other non-Pats teams. In other words, if there were 100 people left
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Chargers | 30.70% | 600 | 85.71% | 4.39 |
| JETS | Redskins | 18.20% | 240 | 70.59% | 5.35 |
| Patriots | COLTS | 12.30% | 320 | 76.19% | 2.93 |
| Broncos | BROWNS | 9.50% | 185 | 64.91% | 3.33 |
| SEAHAWKS | Panthers | 8.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.13 |
| VIKINGS | Chiefs | 7.20% | 185 | 64.91% | 2.53 |
| Falcons | SAINTS | 3.90% | 170 | 62.96% | 1.44 |
| Bengals | BILLS | 3.00% | 165 | 62.26% | 1.13 |
| Cardinals | STEELERS | 2.60% | 160 | 61.54% | 1.00 |
| LIONS | Bears | 1.20% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.47 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Packers are the most heavily used team, but once again they're Vegas' first choice even with 31-percent ownership. If we compare them to the Patriots, Vegas' second choice, we can see a Packers win/Patriots loss is 20.4 percent. A Patriots win/Packers loss is 10.9 percent. The ratio of 20.4/10.9 is 1.87.
Now let's look at the payouts. The Packers have 30.7 percent of pools on them, so if they lost and the Pats won, 30.7 people out of every 100 would lose, plus another 17 or so on other non-Pats teams. In other words, if there were 100 people left at the start of week 6, and the Pats won, but the Packers lost, there would be about 52 left at the end of it. If the total equity in the pool were $1000, and your share were $10 at the start of the week, it would nearly double to $19.23 in that case.
But if you took the Packers and they won, while the Patriots lost, 12.3 people would go down, plus the other 17 on other teams, for a total of 29. That would leave 71 people in the pool for an equity share of $14.08. The ratio of $19.23 to $14.08 is 1.37. So as you can see the payout for taking the lesser-owned Pats is not commensurate with the added risk, assuming you agree with Vegas' odds.
And it only gets worse from there. Of course, many of you are alive precisely because you've used the Pats and Packers already, so we'll have to look deeper. To that end, here are my picks:
1. Green Bay Packers
It wasn't pretty last week, and I think the Chargers too will put up a fight, as the Packers offense isn't quite as crisp this year without Jordy Nelson, and the running game hasn't gotten on track. Still in Lambeau Field against a mistake-prone Chargers team, the Packers are the best bet on the board. I give Green Bay an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
It's likely the Patriots intend to hammer the Colts to a pulp after Indy reported on them for deflating footballs in last year's AFC Championship Game. But if Andrew Luck plays, this game in Indy has some risk. The Patriots defense doesn't have Darrelle Revis this year, and the Colts have plenty of weapons in the passing game. I give the Patriots a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. Seattle Seahawks
They're not as good this year because they can't pass protect, and the defense while good isn't playing at the level it did the prior two years. Still, at home and playing a Carolina team with no receivers and a sluggish running game, the Seahawks won't need to score many points to prevail. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
4. New York Jets
I don't love the matchup against a Redskins squad that has shown up this year, but the Jets defense might be a top-five unit, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Ivory, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker comprise the nucleus of what's at least an average offensive unit this year. I give the Jets a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Denver Broncos - The offense has been awful so far this year, especially on the ground, and Peyton Manning has gone from little mobility and a below-average arm to no mobility and a weak arm. Their defense might carry them like it did last week, but you don't want to count on another pick six and two missed field goals.
Minnesota Vikings Yes, the Chiefs had an embarrassing loss at home to Chicago, but the Vikings' passing game has been poor, and they'll be hard-pressed to exploit Kansas City's weakness. These are roughly equal teams as far as I can tell.
