This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
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To subscribe, here.Leveraging Uncertainty
The other day I was driving with my three-and-a-half-year-old daughter, Sasha, and we stopped at a light. She looked out the window, pointed to a bus stop ad for Coors Light with a sparkling beer bottle and said: "Agua con gas*," i.e., sparkling water. I told her no, it was actually beer. She got angry: "No! Agua con gas! It has sparkles!" I told her I was positive it was beer, but that made her angrier, so I conceded, "Okay, agua con gas." Then, just to press her buttons, I said, "But it's really beer." This sent her into a rage, so I conceded again and let it go.
Leaving aside how much she's like her mom (both totally wrong and 100 percent certain**), it made me think about how I knew with near certainty*** it was an ad for beer because of general background knowledge to which Sasha is not yet privy. For her, sparkles and a bottle indicate sparkling water, and that's enough to form a belief. While that's not the worst basis for thinking that, she's at a massive disadvantage in predicting from a distance the product being sold by a particular brand.
We all find ourselves in Sasha's position at times, finding patterns and relating them to what we know, and turning out to be completely wrong. Last week I wrote about Derek Carr's 5.5. rookie YPA and how I thought it portended failure, and then he lit up the league's second best pass defense for four touchdowns and 333 yards. Sometimes there are background factors we're missing (like when a player we thought would be good was playing through an under-reported injury) and sometimes we simply grasped at an anomalous pattern we mistook as probative.
In cases like that, for example, when I started a player in DFS I mistakenly though would go off, and the lineup failed to cash, I used to think there was some sharp out there, some DFS pro, with the requisite background knowledge of the situation I lacked. But the more experience I get both in handicapping NFL players and games, I think that's rarely the case. The bigger error is in being certain the ad is for sparkling water, not in failing to know what type of beverage Coors typically sells.
For example, just because Justin Forsett**** is going against the 32nd-ranked run defense doesn't mean he'll have a big day. It means he's more likely to go off than if he were facing the top-ranked run defense, but I'd bet only slightly more likely than if he were facing an average one. The biggest advantages a sharp has over a square is not in making better projections (reasonably good ones are everywhere), but in leveraging uncertainty. If a "can't-miss" player is highly owned because the public believes he has a 75 percent chance to go off when really it's more like 45 percent, the sharp can pivot to a lesser owned player who has a 40 percent chance for a big game. If the popular player goes off, and his doesn't, he'll lose, but those who took the popular player have to get everything else right too. But if the lesser owned player goes off, and the popular one doesn't, the sharp now has as big leg up on most of the field.
So it's not so much about knowing which player will perform better as it is being in position to collect a disproportionate payout should things go differently than most people expect.
* She's in a Spanish immersion preschool, so pretty soon she and her mom will be able to talk yang about me, and I'll have no idea. Though it occurred to me to study Spanish clandestinely and be privy to everything they're saying without them knowing I know it.
** Mostly joking
***Although I was nearly certain it was beer, there is the small chance Coors Light launched a line of sparkling water unbeknownst to me. An inexperienced person is more open to unlikely possibilities, which can be an advantage under certain conditions.
**** I actually didn't consider Forsett a must start, but I let myself get influenced by some things I read, and also San Diego's low ranking against the run, so I used him in a few places, something I now regret.
Analyzing the Analysis
One thing you often hear is: "Start tight end X because the team he's facing has given up the third most points to tight ends so far this season." On its face that seems sensible - a team has struggled against tight ends, so it should continue struggling against them. But is it true? Put differently, has there been any research done showing teams that ranked poorly in defending tight ends through Week 8 also rank poorly in defending them in Weeks 9-17? If that is in fact that case, how strong is the correlation? How much regression is there? What if you learned, on average, the five worst teams against the TE from 2010-2014 through eight weeks, wound up being ninth worst on average in the second half of the season? In that case, it would mean they were still below average, but maybe not enough to start a marginal option over a solid one, or to use a highly owned TE over a lesser owned one with a tougher matchup in DFS.
Obviously, I just made up those numbers for my hypothetical, but someone arguing a tight end going against the Giants or Raiders has as great chance to do well should know what the actual ones are. It's not that helpful to cite past performance and project it forward without understanding more precisely how it relates to future returns.
Week 8 Observations
• There's something off about Andrew Luck, and it's hard to pinpoint. If it were just him being hurt, then why is he able to play well in the last 10 minutes of games?
• You have to wonder why the Colts don't pretend they're in desperation mode starting in the first quarter because their regular offensive game plan never works.
• I still can't get over the fact that Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden and DeAngelo Williams are all NFL starting backs. Two years ago, the odds against that would have been astronomical. Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell are out for the year, and Montee Ball and Trent Richardson are out of the league. I'm not in any NFL keeper leagues, but if I were, I wouldn't invest much in running backs.
• "Out for the Year" is the new "Questionable."
• The Giants find the most amazing ways to lose games. First off, Tom Coughlin (who already gifted a win to the Cowboys in Week 1) punted on 4th-and-3 from the Saints 47 down 35-28 late in the third quarter. While it's almost never correct to punt on fourth and short in plus territory, it's even worse when you're trailing on the road. But this wasn't any road game, but one where their offense was rolling, and the Saints were moving down the field at will. Predictably, the Saints got the ball at their 20 after a touchback (a net of 27 yards), drove down the field and scored to go up 42-28.
• After the Giants had miraculously taken the lead thanks to a pick six, the Saints again drove down the field with ease and at one point had the ball at the Giants 26-yard line with two minutes left. The Saints handed the ball to Mark Ingram who ran for 15 yards down to the 11. Coughlin failed to take a timeout, and the clock ran down to 1:20. Then Ingram gained two more yards, and Coughlin let the clock run down to 41 seconds. When the Saints scored the tying touchdown, there were only 36 seconds left for the Giants to get a field goal.
• After hurriedly trying and failing to move the ball into field goal range, the Giants punted with 20 seconds left. For God knows what reason, no one told punter Brad Wing just to boot it out of bounds even if it only went 30 yards. Instead Wing kicked a returnable 46 yard punt, and the return plus a 15-yard facemask penalty put the Saints in FG range, and they won a game that (1) the Giants should have had the last shot at winning; and (2) barring that should have gone to overtime.
• It was amazing the Saints and Giants scored 13 offensive touchdowns, and none were on the ground. Like Philip Rivers three weeks ago, Drew Brees had a shot to break Norm Van Brocklin's single-game passing record of 554 yards had the game gone into overtime. Unfortunately he finished with a mere 511 and seven TDs.
•Ben Watson had his second huge game in the last three, and at this point, should be considered a top-12 tight end. Just keep in mind every tight end torches the Giants.
• I wouldn't get too excited by the emergence of Brandin Cooks. Sure, if you drafted him, you finally got your money's worth, but he had only eight of 50 targets, Watson and Marques Colston outproduced him and Willie Snead essentially equaled his production.
•Odell Beckham had a massive game, despite being checked by cornerback Delvin Breaux. Beckham appears to be finally over his hamstring injury, and I'm not sure there's a cornerback who can stay with him.
• The Giants defense is terrible right now, but Jason Pierre-Paul and Prince Amukamara's imminent returns could change that.
• It was so odd the Packers were favored by three points in Denver. Even if Peyton Manning were Trent Dilfer, it's rare for any team to lay points on the road against an elite defense. That the Packers offense hasn't been anything special this year and the team isn't especially good on the road made it even more bizarre. Still, I've never seen Aaron Rodgers struggle that much (77 passing yards, 50 net if you include the 27 yards in sacks.) Randall Cobb managed only 27 yards on nine targets (3.0 YPT.)
•Eddie Lacy looked okay even though he managed only 3.5 yards per carry. He did score, and James Starks saw only five carries.
•Ronnie Hillman ran decently and scored two touchdowns, but while he was nicked up on the sidelines C.J. Anderson rumbled through a huge hole for a 28-yard score. With Anderson looking healthy and explosive, we're probably looking at a timeshare again.
• Who knew Joe Lombardi was the league's most valuable assistant coach? If the Lions don't go Joe Philbin on Jim Caldwell, they're wasting half a season for no reason.
• You can't trust the Chiefs to get heir best players the ball no matter the matchup. That's why Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce can't be counted on even if both managed to find the end zone Sunday. Kelce is merely a top-10 TE, not top five, and Maclin is not a top-20 WR.
• There's little doubt Julio Jones is healthy now after catching 12 of 13 targets for 162 yards. More telling, though, was him running 80 yards down the field to catch a linebacker who had picked off a Matt Ryan "free-play" pass after the Bucs had jumped offsides. Jones not only sprinted all that way to catch him (on a play that was almost certainly not going to count) but also body-slammed him to the ground.
•Steve Smith likely ended his career after tearing his Achilles, and my Twitter feed blew up with people hoping he changes his mind and comes back next year. That struck me as odd for a couple reasons: (1) Isn't it better to leave as a good player than come back at age 37 off a major injury and try to hang on like Reggie Wayne? and (2) Yes, it's sad he got hurt, and his career is likely over, but he also beat the crap out of at least three people over the last decade and a half. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve sympathy or he's a terrible person. (You'll probably like the guy if you watch this.) But if he weren't a great player he might have gone the way of IK Enemkpali, and no one felt badly about him losing his job. People will always forgive a winner.
•Ladarius Green absolutely killed me in DFS. I couldn't resist his $3,000 price tag on Draft Kings, and he was reasonable on FanDuel too. When Antonio Gates was surprisingly active, I pivoted to Delanie Walker where I had $100 left over (on FD), but I still had Green in maybe 45 of 60 lineups. Green had been useful even with Gates healthy, so I left him in (rather than switch to Heath Miller which I considered.) We'll never know what Green would have done had he not gotten hurt, but I'd have posted some big scores had I subbed in Miller.
• I started Willie Snead over Dez Bryant in PPR and Rueben Randle over Bryant in half PPR, and both decisions were correct. Unfortunately, I used Bryant over Snead in a non-PPR league. It's easy to say this after the fact, but it's bizarre the consensus among experts had Bryant ranked higher than both. A full strength Bryant with Tony Romo going against an average CB is so much different than a rusty, snap-count limited, not-entirely-healthy Bryant with Matt Cassel going against Richard Sherman.
• I have one high-stakes 12-team NFFC league with Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, Andrew Luck, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin, Donte Moncrief and Gary Barnidge, and I was already counting my winnings. Not so fast, it turns out.
•Todd Gurley would have to be the No. 1 pick going forward, right?
•Derek Carr throwing for 333 (9.3 YPA), four TDs and zero picks against the Jets was impressive. While Oakland was once an offensive wasteland, it now has to be taken seriously. Why can't Latavius Murray be a top-five back, or Michael Crabtree a top-25 receiver? Amari Cooper could even wind up top-10, though Darrelle Revis shut him down.
•Brandon Marshall has made a lot of mistakes this year, but volume is king. He wasn't efficient, but he saw 18 more targets. He's also banged up and might miss an easy matchup against the Jaguars, though.
• Todd Bowles punted on 4th-and-7 from the Jets 20, down 14 with 3:30 left. Take a moment to process that.
• Maybe Houston will turn the corner, but I think it was mostly the Titans offense. I actually thought Zach Mettenberger was good too. Marcus Mariota's return should help a little, but I'd still target this offense for streaming purposes.
• Speaking of terrible quarterbacks on league doormats, Colin Kaepernick isn't just out to lunch, he's taking bong hits in outer space. Otherwise, he might have noticed Torrey Smith lined up with no one on him rather than handing the ball off. When Blaine Gabbert's carcass merits another look, it's dire.
• Why does every big sports media site (ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS) auto-launch video when you land on their pages? They have to know it's killing the experience of using their sites. Whatever ad revenue they're generating, it's a terrible long-term strategy. At a minimum I mute my laptop, and usually I just close the window altogether and find what I'm looking for elsewhere.
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