On Target: Seahawks Flying High

Written by

Updated on December 19, 2015 10:37AM EST

The fantasy playoffs are here, and with them, all of the injuries you could ever ask for. My largest observation on football the last few seasons is that so much of what happens in the fantasy playoffs and the double-digit weeks is dictated by who gets hurt and how their injury replacements perform. Go look at the teams still left in your leagues' playoffs and see how many of their starting players were scooped off the waiver wire. Additionally, teams have written themselves for the seasons. The Falcons are indubitably fraudulent, whereas no one really knows if Washington is a good or bad football team and its results week to week are volatile. The overall skill of teams has a large impact on our fantasy points, so it's a great idea to draw conclusions as early as possible on the talent level of all the NFL teams. With these ideas in mind, let's look at the data.

Overall Targets
(Click to sort)

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YARDS	TD
Julio Jones	168	109	1426	6
DeAndre Hopkins	158	89	1222	10
Antonio Brown	147	100	1397	7
Demaryius Thomas	144	88	1067	3
Odell Beckham	143	85	1324	12
Brandon Marshall	140	89	1187	11
Jarvis Landry	135	90	922	4
Larry Fitzgerald	129	96	1088	7
Allen Robinson	129	67	1088	12
Calvin Johnson	123	71	981	7
Michael Crabtree	120	70	779	7
T.Y. Hilton	115	58	987	5
A.J. Green	114	75	1133	8
Mike Evans	114	57	894

Overall Targets
(Click to sort)

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YARDS	TD
Julio Jones	168	109	1426	6
DeAndre Hopkins	158	89	1222	10
Antonio Brown	147	100	1397	7
Demaryius Thomas	144	88	1067	3
Odell Beckham	143	85	1324	12
Brandon Marshall	140	89	1187	11
Jarvis Landry	135	90	922	4
Larry Fitzgerald	129	96	1088	7
Allen Robinson	129	67	1088	12
Calvin Johnson	123	71	981	7
Michael Crabtree	120	70	779	7
T.Y. Hilton	115	58	987	5
A.J. Green	114	75	1133	8
Mike Evans	114	57	894	3
Amari Cooper	113	62	932	4
Randall Cobb	111	65	737	6
Golden Tate	111	76	675	4
Greg Olsen	108	65	969	6
Emmanuel Sanders	108	57	788	4
Eric Decker	107	66	875	9
Travis Benjamin	104	58	867	5
Jeremy Maclin	103	72	935	5
Brandin Cooks	103	64	869	7
Gary Barnidge	100	65	901	8
Jordan Matthews	100	64	680	4
Delanie Walker	99	74	871	4
Rob Gronkowski	96	61	1018	10
Kamar Aiken	94	54	674	4
Donte Moncrief	94	56	669	5
Jordan Reed	92	67	694	7
Pierre Garcon	91	59	614	3
Alshon Jeffery	89	53	797	3
Keenan Allen	89	67	725	4
Jason Witten	89	65	594	2
Julian Edelman	88	61	692	7
Anquan Boldin	88	51	617	2
Travis Kelce	86	59	749	4
Ben Watson	86	61	712	4
Allen Hurns	85	51	863	8
Marvin Jones	85	53	656	4
Theo Riddick	84	67	578	3
Danny Amendola	81	62	628	3
Doug Baldwin	80	61	860	11
Willie Snead	80	52	798	3
Ted Ginn	80	37	645	8
Nate Washington	80	40	592	3
Martellus Bennett	80	53	439	3
Danny Woodhead	79	58	601	3
Devonta Freeman	78	61	498	2
John Brown	77	55	895	5
Charles Clay	77	51	528	3
Brian Hartline	77	46	523	2
Jimmy Graham	74	48	605	2
Robert Woods	74	43	508	3
Cecil Shorts	74	42	484	2
Davante Adams	74	38	367	1
Steve Smith	73	46	670	3
Rueben Randle	73	47	595	5
Zach Ertz	73	45	501	1
Martavis Bryant	72	38	672	6
Stefon Diggs	72	43	613	2
Jacob Tamme	70	51	567	1
Tyler Eifert	70	48	564	12
Richard Rodgers	70	49	458	7
Coby Fleener	70	44	378	2
Michael Floyd	69	40	652	6
Terrance Williams	69	38	592	3
Antonio Gates	69	45	497	4
Tavon Austin	69	41	386	4
Kyle Rudolph	67	45	421	4
Darren Sproles	67	42	296	1
James Jones	66	35	660	7
Heath Miller	66	49	456	1
Steve Johnson	65	45	497	3
Jamison Crowder	65	49	488	1
Sammy Watkins	64	39	716	7
Owen Daniels	64	38	418	3
Brandon LaFell	64	30	401	0
Julius Thomas	64	36	352	5
Marques Colston	63	43	481	3
Jared Cook	63	34	412	0
Dez Bryant	63	27	351	2
Vincent Jackson	62	33	543	3
Jordan Cameron	62	29	341	2
Rishard Matthews	61	43	662	4
Kenny Britt	61	28	480	1
Andre Johnson	61	31	386	3
Mark Ingram	60	50	405	0
Mike Wallace	60	33	403	2
Duke Johnson	59	49	446	2
Cole Beasley	59	42	417	3
Markus Wheaton	58	32	589	3
Malcom Floyd	58	26	492	3
Shane Vereen	58	43	359	3
Kendall Wright	57	33	390	3
Roddy White	56	34	382	1
Vernon Davis	55	37	390	0
Giovani Bernard	54	40	413	0
Harry Douglas	54	26	298	2
Ladarius Green	53	33	389	4
Eric Ebron	53	34	384	4
Jermaine Kearse	52	36	503	3
Dwayne Harris	52	33	381	4
Tyler Lockett	51	41	540	5
Marquess Wilson	51	28	464	1
Charles Sims	51	36	393	4
Dion Lewis	50	36	388	2
DeMarco Murray	50	41	298	1

Red-Zone Touchdown Percentage
(Click to sort)

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YDS	RZ TD	RZ TD%
Tyler Eifert	16	12	106	11	69
Allen Robinson	21	14	99	11	52
Richard Rodgers	12	9	30	6	50
Seth Roberts	10	6	65	5	50
Larry Fitzgerald	13	9	51	6	46
Doug Baldwin	11	8	110	5	45
Gary Barnidge	17	8	75	7	41
Ben Watson	10	7	62	4	40
Kamar Aiken	10	6	46	4	40
Jordan Reed	18	11	79	7	39
Calvin Johnson	16	10	84	6	38
Brandon Marshall	22	12	113	8	36
Antonio Gates	11	5	53	4	36
Allen Hurns	11	7	47	4	36
Donte Moncrief	11	7	47	4	36
Eric Decker	24	10	66	8	33
Antonio Brown	18	13	78	6	33
Rob Gronkowski	18	10	52	6	33
A.J. Green	15	7	69	5	33
Jeremy Maclin	12	9	51	4	33
John Brown	13	8	74	4	31
Steve Johnson	10	7	57	3	30
Rueben Randle	10	6	55	3	30
Pierre Garcon	10	5	33	3	30
Julius Thomas	10	5	29	3	30
James Jones	10	3	22	3	30
Julian Edelman	17	11	82	5	29
Odell Beckham	17	11	81	5	29
Golden Tate	14	9	33	4	29
Randall Cobb	18	8	45	5	28
DeAndre Hopkins	22	12	115	6	27
Delanie Walker	11	9	73	3	27
Travis Kelce	11	5	45	3	27
Kyle Rudolph	11	4	19	3	27
Cole Beasley	12	8	54	3	25
Martavis Bryant	12	5	51	3	25
Danny Woodhead	12	7	49	3	25
Greg Olsen	17	9	82	4	24
Vincent Jackson	13	5	53	3	23
Julio Jones	20	11	68	4	20
James Starks	10	7	57	2	20
Jerricho Cotchery	10	6	49	2	20
Dez Bryant	10	3	38	2	20
Jason Witten	10	6	35	2	20
Coby Fleener	10	6	29	2	20
Michael Floyd	10	4	25	2	20
T.Y. Hilton	16	8	62	3	19
Devonta Freeman	11	7	62	2	18
Marvin Jones	11	6	51	2	18
Jarvis Landry	18	11	72	3	17
Theo Riddick	12	10	73	2	17
Jordan Matthews	12	7	59	2	17
Jordan Cameron	12	4	43	2	17
Brian Hartline	13	8	48	2	15
Alshon Jeffery	14	5	66	2	14
Mike Evans	15	3	27	2	13
Anquan Boldin	17	8	74	2	12
Terrance Williams	10	3	33	1	10
Michael Crabtree	10	2	15	1	10
Nate Washington	10	3	14	1	10
Bryan Walters	11	5	43	1	9
Travis Benjamin	11	5	32	1	9
Heath Miller	12	7	56	1	8
Demaryius Thomas	14	7	48	1	7

We have to talk about the insane run that Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are on. Wilson is finishing the first month in NFL history in which a quarterback has posted a passer rating of at least 135 in each game, and Baldwin has been a huge part of that ascendence. Sharp football people have always thought Baldwin was a little limited by the run-heavy offense the Seahawks use. With Marshawn Lynch injured, the Seahawks have turned more to a passing offense. Baldwin has seven (!!!!!) touchdowns over his last three games and while that pace probably won't hold, he gets another cake matchup this week that will allow him to run just about as free as a wide receiver can. I think more importantly, we have learned that when Russ is allowed to play with the reins off, special things can happen. I'm personally treated Baldwin as a high-end WR for this season and next and think that the ceiling will remain similar as long as Wilson keeps playing this well. If you were fortunate enough to snag him off the waiver wire before this explosion, you have found a player who can lead you to fantasy titles this season.

Demaryius Thomas has not been playing well. The entire Denver Broncos offense has performed sub-optimally for quite some time, essentially the entire year. There have been a few breath-taking plays from Demaryius where he catches the ball short and creates in the open field, but he has failed consistently at the things that are supposed to be his bread and butter (9 routes and option routes in the end zone). I am of the opinion that DT is finally in a perfect spot this week to breakout against the awful Steelers defense that has struggled against top WRs all season. The targets have been there for Thomas, but he is scoring way below his career ratio of TDs to targets. Most wide receiver scoring can be defined by red-zone targets, and DT has only 14 this year after getting 39 in 16 games last season. But more important, he is not converting his red-zone looks. He has always done well at converting RZ targets in the past, and I don't believe he has lost an huge element of skill. Therefore, Thomas can be called a "touchdown regression" candidate, which essentially means that sooner rather than later, his red-zone targets are going to start turning into touchdowns.

Somehow, Jordan Reed's season is not being discussed quite enough. He's in the top 100 of total fantasy scorers and sixth at the position in standard scoring despite leaving several games early with injury. The injury part of Reed's game will always leave him undervalued and underrated, but when he is on the field, he's one of the best move tight ends in the game. He actually leads the NFL in market share of RZ targets for his team, receiving 31 percent of Washington's red-zone targets, but has only scored seven touchdowns, which suggests he has even more room to score fantasy points. Despite the cast around him changing (DeSean Jackson has been in and out of the lineup, the team has changed running backs multiple times), Reed's game-to-game target volume has stayed consistent. He was a steal in drafts all offseason and remains underpriced relative to his offensive involvement in DFS. Next year, I think we have to treat Reed like a top-5 option at the position.