NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 8

NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 8

This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.

Miami (+8) at New England - Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

Comments: Apparently, the Joe Philbin Dolphins are to the Dan Campbell Dolphins as Bruce Banner is to The Incredible Hulk. They've absolutely smashed their last two opponents by a combined 82-36, and while it was only the Titans and Texans, that's still a whole lot better than losing to the Jaguars and getting their butts kicked by the Bills. It's hard to write Miami's resurgence off as just a mirage either, as the roster has talent and was expected to compete for a playoff spot coming into the season, but let's see how they do against a team with more than two wins before declaring them a true threat in the AFC East. ... Brandon LaFell's return was expected to shake up the Patriots receiving corps, and while some changes might be coming, it won't be because LaFell is demanding more targets. His multiple drops last week had Tom Brady looking Aaron Dobson's way by the end of the game, and were compounded by the fact that Julian Edelman wasn't quite his usual sure-handed self either due to the finger he mangled two weeks ago. Edelman will get his chances no matter what, but LaFell will be on a very short leash, and if he keeps letting balls slip through his hands, that's probably going to mean more targets for Danny Amendola and Dobson. If you picked up LaFell on spec while he was injured, you may have

Miami (+8) at New England - Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

Comments: Apparently, the Joe Philbin Dolphins are to the Dan Campbell Dolphins as Bruce Banner is to The Incredible Hulk. They've absolutely smashed their last two opponents by a combined 82-36, and while it was only the Titans and Texans, that's still a whole lot better than losing to the Jaguars and getting their butts kicked by the Bills. It's hard to write Miami's resurgence off as just a mirage either, as the roster has talent and was expected to compete for a playoff spot coming into the season, but let's see how they do against a team with more than two wins before declaring them a true threat in the AFC East. ... Brandon LaFell's return was expected to shake up the Patriots receiving corps, and while some changes might be coming, it won't be because LaFell is demanding more targets. His multiple drops last week had Tom Brady looking Aaron Dobson's way by the end of the game, and were compounded by the fact that Julian Edelman wasn't quite his usual sure-handed self either due to the finger he mangled two weeks ago. Edelman will get his chances no matter what, but LaFell will be on a very short leash, and if he keeps letting balls slip through his hands, that's probably going to mean more targets for Danny Amendola and Dobson. If you picked up LaFell on spec while he was injured, you may have to wait a while longer for the investment to pay off. ... The Patriots' 4.5 yards per carry allowed (24th in the league) points to another big day on the ground for Lamar Miller, who's racked up a ridiculous 354 yards from scrimmage and three TDs in two games under new coach Campbell. Even if the Dolphins fall behind early he should still see some action as a receiver, but any chance Miami has of stealing this one likely comes down to how effectively Miller can run the ball and control the clock.

Predictions:
Miller picks up only 80 combined yards, but scores. Ryan Tannehill throws for 280 yards and two TDs, one to Rishard Matthews and one to DeVante Parker, but also gets picked off twice. Dion Lewis sits again, while LeGarrette Blount bangs out 60 yards and a touchdown. Brady throws for 330 yards and three TDs, one each to Rob Gronkowski, Amendola and Scott Chandler. Patriots, 34-24

Detroit (+5.5) at Kansas City - Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST

Comments: This week's game from London actually gets televised, which is a nice change from last week's Laggy Jags versus Buffering Bills contest. Unfortunately, it doesn't involve better teams, as the Lions are still looking for their first regulation win and the Chiefs haven't been able to get out of their own way for the most part this season. At least K.C. seems to have found a solid replacement for Jamaal Charles, as Charcandrick West finally reached his mega-evolved form and recorded his first 100-yard game and first NFL touchdown last week. Facing a defense that's allowed a league-high 10 rushing TDs this season, West is likely to get at least his second career score this week. ... Detroit's backfield, however, remains a mess. Ameer Abdullah's 50 rushing yards in Week 1 is not only his season high, it's the best performance any Lions RB has managed this season. Theo Riddick's been consistent in the passing game at least, catching multiple passes in every game, but Joique Bell has yet to show much of anything, though he at least made it through a full practice Wednesday unscathed. New offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter was the quarterbacks coach prior to his promotion, so don't expect the ground game to get a lot of help from him. ... Alex Smith hasn't done much this year, with just one 300-yard passing game and one multi-TD game on his resume. If that's ever going to change it'll be this week, though. Jeremy Maclin should be back on the field from his concussion, secondary wideouts Albert Wilson and Chris Conley have both proven their worth, and the Lions are among the more vulnerable defenses against tight ends (five TDs allowed), so Travis Kelce could be open frequently as well. Oh, and they also allow a league-high 9.1 yards per pass attempt. If Smith can't torch these guys, he can't torch anybody.

Predictions: Abdullah manages a season high with 70 rushing yards. Matthew Stafford throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to Golden Tate and Riddick, with Calvin Johnson topping 100 yards, but he also gets picked off twice. West gains 100 combined yards and scores, while Knile Davis also bangs in a short-yardage TD. Smith throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Kelce and Conley. Chiefs, 31-17

Tampa Bay (+7) at Atlanta - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Matt Ryan seems to have forgotten how to stretch the field. It's been three weeks since he had a YPA north of 7.0 and three weeks since he completed a pass of 40 or more yards, and after averaging more than 34 points a game for the first month of the season, the Falcons have averaged just 18.7 over Ryan's dry spell, bottoming out with last week's 10-7 squeaker over the lowly Titans. His 3:4 TD:INT ratio over that stretch hasn't helped matters, either. Julio Jones' hamstring issues undoubtedly played a part in the decline, but Jones was supposed to be healthy last week and Jacob Tamme still ended up catching Ryan's longest pass of the day, a 24-yarder. A game against a Bucs defense allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 24th in the league, should be an effective cure, but then again the Titans rank 27th in that category. ... It seems safe to say Doug Martin is back. Over the last three games, he's averaged 121.7 rushing yards and a touchdown, and he's been effective as a receiver, as well, catching all 11 of his targets in that stretch for 107 yards and a fourth score. Atlanta's defense has been tough on the ground, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry (sixth in the league), but it's allowed a league-high 10 rushing TDs and also been among the worst units this season at containing pass-catching backs, allowing a league-high 72.7 receiving yards a game to RBs. Expect Martin to be productive even if he doesn't top 100 rushing yards for the fourth straight game, and Charles Sims could be a sneaky PPR play as well. ... Those two better do some damage, because Jameis Winston doesn't have many other healthy receiving options. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is just starting to practice again as he returns from a shoulder injury, and Vincent Jackson could be gone for a while with a knee injury. The Falcons have the worst pass rush in the league, recording just eight sacks so far, so Winston should get the time in the pocket to look for Mike Evans downfield, but otherwise he'll need to lean heavily on his running backs.

Predictions: Martin manages 90 combined yards and a TD, while Sims also chips in 60 receiving yards. Winston throws for 270 yards while Evans has a big game with 120 receiving yards and a score. Devonta Freeman rushes for 80 yards, but Ryan bounces back with a big game of his own, throwing for 340 yards and three TDs, two to Jones (who matches Evans' 120 yards) and one to Roddy White. Falcons, 27-17

Arizona at Cleveland (+4.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Your weekly Gary Barnidge "he's gonna cool down, for realsies this time, you guys!" note: the Cardinals are one of two teams in the NFL not to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season (the Bengals are the other one, and the Browns face them next week). Arizona's also giving up just 36.4 receiving yards a game to TEs and a pitiful 5.9 yards per target. I suppose that means Big Game Gary's about to go off for 100-plus yards and two scores. ... Arizona's embarrassment of offensive riches could be a little less embarrassing this week, as John Brown's hamstring doesn't seem to be getting better. He played through the issue last week and produced a 4-65-1 line, but at some point they'd be smart to sit him down and let him heal up, and the game before their bye week is as good a time as any. That'll leave Carson Palmer with only Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Andre Ellington and David Johnson to throw to. How will he ever manage? ... Then again, Palmer may not have to throw much at all. The Browns' defense has allowed 5.1 yards per carry, second most in the league, and its 151.0 rushing yards allowed per game is the most. CJ2K could be in line for more video game numbers.

Predictions:Chris Johnson glides for 130 yards and a TD, while David Johnson also vultures a touchdown. Palmer throws for 220 yards, hitting Floyd and Jaron Brown for scores. Robert Turbin leads the Browns backfield with 40 rushing yards while Duke Johnson picks up 70 combined yards and catches a touchdown. Josh McCown starts despite his injuries but struggles, throwing for just 180 yards before getting replaced late in the game by Johnny Manziel, who hits Travis Benjamin for a garbage-time TD. Cardinals, 31-14

San Francisco (+8.5) at St. Louis - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Coming off a game in which he got sacked six times by the Seahawks, Colin Kaepernick could be in for another long day against a Rams defense that's tied for third in the league with 23 sacks. The Niners have been held without a touchdown three times already this season in large part because Kaepernick's had no time in the pocket to make anything happen, and even with Robert Quinn and Chris Long both banged up, St. Louis' front seven possesses more than enough firepower to put Kaepernick on his bicycle once again. ... Since assuming the full-time starting gig three games ago, Todd Gurley is averaging 144.3 rushing yards a game and an incomprehensible 6.4 yards per carry. These are NFL defenses he's humiliating, for Pete's sake, not the dregs of the SEC. The 49ers' run defense hasn't been bad this year, allowing 4.0 YPC and ranking 17th in the league, but the Cardinals are 15th and they got ripped to shreds at the beginning of Gurley's reign of terror. Eric Dickerson's 1983 rookie record of 1,808 rushing yards is still on the books, but Gurley's now on pace to break it after spotting him a couple games, which is just ridiculous. ... Adding to the Niners woes, Anquan Boldin aggravated his hamstring injury in practice this week and Carlos Hyde was ruled out Friday due to a stress fracture in his foot, leaving the backfield in the hands of Reggie Bush and Mike Davis.

Predictions: Davis starts but rushes for just 40 yards, while Bush adds 50 combined yards. Kaepernick runs for his life most of the game and gets sacked another four times, but he does throw for 170 yards and run for 40, scrambling for one TD and throwing a second one to Torrey Smith. Gurley racks up another 140 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Nick Foles plays caretaker once again, throwing for 180 yards and a TD to Kenny Britt. Rams, 27-14

N.Y. Giants (+3) at New Orleans - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: What's gotten into Rob Ryan's boys? The Saints were among the worst defensive units in the league through the first month or so, but in the last two weeks they've held the potent Falcons and Colts to 21 points each, no mean feat. An improved pass rush led by Cameron Jordan is a big part of it, as nine of New Orleans' 16 sacks this season have come in those two games. The numbers say Eli Manning should exploit a unit that's allowed 8.4 yards per pass attempt, fourth most in the league, but the defense that's taken the field recently could give him more trouble than he can handle. ... Add the Giants' backfield to the list of those that have become fantasy poison. Who's going to provide decent value this week? Nominal starter Rashad Jennings? Third-down back Shane Vereen? Maybe power back Andre Williams punches in a short-yardage score on one of his dwindling number of snaps. And how can you resist the lure of plugging a guy named Orleans Darkwa into your lineup when he's playing in New Orleans? Good luck to you in hitting a bullseye if you want to throw one of those darts, though. ... Despite a banged-up secondary and no pass rush to speak of, the Giants are still somehow among the league leaders in INTs with 11, using veteran savvy from the likes of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to jump routes and torment opposition QBs. Drew Brees has only thrown four picks this season and is on another level compared to Sam Bradford or Matt Cassel, the Giants' two most recent victims, but confidence breeds big plays and New York's defensive backs have it in spades now.

Predictions:Rashad Jennings leads the Giants' backfield with 50 combined yards, but it's Vereen who gets into the end zone. Manning throws for 260 yards and TDs to Odell Beckham and Larry Donnell. Mark Ingram rushes for 110 yards and scores for the third straight game, while Khiry Robinson picks up another short-yardage TD. Brees throws for 320 yards and touchdowns to Willie Snead and Ben Watson. Saints, 28-27

Minnesota at Chicago (+1) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Just when things seemed to be looking up for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson goes and gets himself banged up. Take your pick for the reasons why he missed practice earlier this week: a finger injury, a hip issue or maybe a minor ankle sprain. He'll almost certainly play Sunday, especially given what he's done in his career against the Bears (his average game against Chicago is 130 combined yards and a touchdown, and this year's edition features a defense allowing 4.5 yards a carry, 25th in the league), but 30-year-old running backs accumulating injuries isn't a recipe for success. I'm not necessarily suggesting you try to sell high on Peterson, but if someone offered him to me straight up for Todd Gurley, I'd probably say no. ... The Vikings' defense isn't really any better against the run than the Bears, ranking 24th in YPC allowed, but Matt Forte doesn't have anywhere near the track record against Minnesota that AP does against Chicago. Somehow in 13 career games against the Vikings, Forte has only two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. With Alshon Jeffery finally healthy and encouraging Jay Cutler to be frisky, that trend might not change Sunday. ... According to Football Outsiders, the Bears' defense is second lowest in the league by DVOA against the other team's top wide receiver. If you're waiting for Stefon Diggs to prove that he's a flash in the pan, you could be waiting a little while longer.

Predictions: Peterson isn't 100 percent healthy, but he still manages 90 rushing yards and a score. Teddy Bridgewater also runs in a TD while throwing for 250 yards and touchdowns to Diggs and Mike Wallace. Forte hits for 120 combined yards, while Cutler throws for 310 yards and TDs to Jeffery and Martellus Bennett, with Jeffery pulling down 130 yards. Vikings, 31-23

San Diego (+3) at Baltimore - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Tom Brady's the unquestioned top fantasy quarterback, but who has a better case for the No. 2 spot than Philip Rivers? The Chargers offer absolutely ideal conditions for big QB numbers, as their running game is stuck in the mud and their defense makes every game a high-scoring affair. If Rivers isn't throwing for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns, as he's done four consecutive games, San Diego basically has no chance. Rivers leads the NFL in passing attempts, yards and yards per game, and he's tied for third in TDs with Aaron Rodgers (and Blake Bortles, who's the poor man's Rivers this year when it comes to volume passing mandated by the situation around him) behind Brady and Carson Palmer. The Ravens' defense is one of a handful that are even worse against the pass than the Chargers, allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, so a shootout between Rivers and the elite Joe Flacco seems almost inevitable. ... At least Flacco will have his top options to throw to again. Steve Smith isn't going to let little things like broken bones in his back and a tweaked knee get in the way of his farewell tour, while promising tight end Crockett Gillmore appears fully recovered from his calf injury. The Chargers rank 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed at 8.1, which only looks good in comparison to their dead-last ranking in yards per carry allowed (5.3 YPC), so while Justin Forsett should be busy, the Ravens' offense could be fairly balanced. ... The same can't be said for Rivers. Antonio Gates likely will miss another game with a sprained MCL, while Keenan Allen (hip) and Melvin Gordon (ankle) are both playing through injuries.

Predictions: Gordon starts, but Danny Woodhead leads the Chargers' backfield with 100 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Rivers throws for 360 yards and three TDs, with the other two going to Allen and Steve Johnson. Forsett reels off 110 combined yards and two scores, while Flacco throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Smith and one to Gillmore. Ravens, 35-27

Cincinnati (PK) at Pittsburgh - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: It's almost too perfect. After a lackluster four-game stretch without him, Ben Roethlisberger returns to the lineup to try to help the Steelers ruin the undefeated season of their hated division rivals and keep the race for the AFC North alive. While Big Ben certainly has the weapons to hand the Bengals their first loss, it's his mobility rather than any rust that will be the biggest question in this one. He's reported no problems with his knee in practice this week, but if he isn't his usual impossible-to-take-down self, Carlos Dunlap and the Cinci pass rush will figure it out very quickly. ... The Bengals come out of their bye in good shape, health-wise. Linebacker Vincent Rey hurt his knee in Week 6's win over the Bills but didn't get listed on the injury report, and the guys that got them to 6-0 will all be on the field. The Steelers can't say the same, especially on defense, as defensive end Stephen Tuitt will miss his second game with a knee injury and safety Will Allen will miss his third with an ankle injury. That could be the difference in a game that figures to be close. ... Both teams have a glaring flaw defensively, which the other can exploit. Le'Veon Bell has to like the look of a Bengals defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry, fifth most in the league, but the Steelers are 25th in yards per pass attempt at 7.7, which must make Andy Dalton smile.

Predictions:Giovani Bernard picks up 60 combined yards, but Jeremy Hill rushes for 40 yards with a touchdown. Dalton throws for 270 yards and two TDs, one to A.J. Green and one to Tyler Eifert. Bell responds with a big game, gaining 130 combined yards and a score, while Roethlisberger hits Antonio Brown for a TD and 120 of his 250 yards. Bengals, 24-23

Tennessee (+4) at Houston - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Arian Foster's season-ending Achilles' tendon injury just makes it obvious what was becoming apparent through the first half of this season: the Texans offense now revolves around DeAndre Hopkins. Gary Kubiak's ground-and-pound philosophy is now firmly in the franchise's past, and Hopkins' league-leading 101 targets are the future. Brian Hoyer isn't anybody's idea of the ideal quarterback to get him the ball, of course, but neither was Ryan Mallett. With no other game-changing options on the offense, Hopkins' talent and workload should keep him among the league's elite at WR. ... The Titans, smartly, will continue to be cautious with Marcus Mariota's knee, which leaves the offense in the somewhat less-than-capable hands of Zach Mettenberger. The Zach Attack managed just seven points last week against the Falcons, which is a shame because the defense somehow held Matt Ryan to 10 points. It's hard to hold Mettenberger solely responsible though, given the underpowered RBBC behind him and Tennessee's lack of downfield weapons in the passing game. Mariota appears to be the real deal, but the franchise still has a lot of work to do to build an offense around him. ... If the Texans are to turn their season around at all, it's probably going to fall on J.J. Watt's ailing back to carry that load. His season is considered a disappointment, but he's still on pace for his usual number of tackles and passes deflected at the line, and being on pace for 14 sacks only seems low when you're expecting 20. What's been missing are the impact plays, the forced fumbles and touchdowns that have in large part defined his stellar career to date. The Texans have just two wins but are somehow only one game back of the Colts in the woeful AFC South, so if Watt can heat up, there's still time to salvage the campaign.

Predictions:Antonio Andrews leads the Titans' backfield with 60 rushing yards. Mettenberger throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Dexter McCluster. Alfred Blue pounds out 70 yards, while Hoyer throws for 290 yards and three TDs, 120 yards and two scores to Hopkins and the third touchdown to Nate Washington. Texans, 24-10

N.Y. Jets at Oakland (+2.5) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: The Jets came up short in Foxboro, but the game was there for the stealing. They held Tom Brady in check as well as anyone could hope to, Brandon Marshall let a back shoulder touchdown pass clank off his hands and they just couldn't quite get a big momentum-shifting turnover when they needed it. Had they pulled off the upset this might have been a trap game, but instead the Raiders might feel like they're trapped in a stadium with a team looking to take out its frustrations on someone. ... It's hard to say which matchup looks worse for Oakland, Latavius Murray against a defense ranked first in most rushing categories (YPC, yards per game, TDs allowed ...) or Amari Cooper against Darrelle Revis. If you have to start one go with Cooper, though, just in case Revis is switched onto Michael Crabtree instead. ... The Jets' offense is a little banged up, with Chris Ivory (hamstring) and Eric Decker (knee) both expected to play through their respective injuries. Of the two, Decker's a little more likely to sit, but Ivory's a little more likely to need snaps off if his hamstring tightens up on him as it did last week.

Predictions: Ivory plays but only gains 60 combined yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a big game, though, throwing for 310 yards and TDs to Decker and Jeremy Kerley. Murray is held to 50 rushing yards, while Derek Carr throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Cooper and Clive Walford, but he also throws a pick six to Antonio Cromartie. Jets, 24-14

Seattle at Dallas (+6) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: All signs point to Dez Bryant making his return from foot surgery this week, but hold on for a second before you automatically plug him back into your lineup. The type of foot injury he suffered often has a slow recovery time and setbacks, and it's entirely possible he won't be 100 percent healthy again until 2016. On top of that, the Seahawks suggested they might assign Richard Sherman to him specifically rather than simply having their corners play whoever lines up on their side of the field. Finally, he's still got Matt Cassel throwing him the ball rather than Tony Romo. Bryant could well make an immediate impact this week, but he could also be very ineffective. ... Russell Wilson is starting to pull away from the pack when it comes to getting sacked, having been brought down 31 times already in 2015. Meanwhile, Greg Hardy has three sacks in two games since making his belated Cowboys debut, and his presence has put a jolt in the entire Dallas pass rush. Wilson's been his usual great self on the snaps where he doesn't end up eating turf, but the 'Hawks undermanned offensive line could be without tackle Russell Okung, who suffered an ankle injury in practice this week. If Okung can't play or is ineffective, it could be a long day for Wilson. ... Joseph Randle seems to have finally imploded, as many predicted, and has gone from the Cowboys starting running back to effectively AWOL from the club in the space of a week. Officially, he's attending to a personal matter, but with Darren McFadden relegating Randle to the bench anyway and tearing it up last week behind an offensive line that finally began to live up to its preseason hype, he may not be missed too much. Randle's absence does mean the coaching staff is running out of excuses not to give Christine Michael a bigger workload, though. Whoever gets those touches for Dallas, they could find it hard slogging against a Seattle defense allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, fifth in the league.

Predictions:Marshawn Lynch rumbles for 90 yards and scores for the third straight game. Wilson gets sacked six times, but still throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Doug Baldwin. Tyler Lockett also returns his third kick of the season for a TD. McFadden rushes for 80 yards, while Cassel keeps the Cowboys in the game, throwing for 250 yards and touchdowns to Jason Witten and Terrance Williams. Bryant is a non-factor. Seahawks, 27-23

Green Bay at Denver (+3) - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: The week's marquee matchup features two undefeated teams who have gotten to 6-0 thanks to their defense rather than their offense, standing No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed per game (16.8 for the Packers, 17.0 for the Broncos). It's a weird thing to say about a game featuring Aaron Rodgers versus Peyton Manning, but this should be a low-scoring slugfest. ... Both backfields are in flux. Ronnie Hillman has been consistently out-performing C.J. Anderson this season, and while Denver's bye week might have given Anderson a chance to heal up from the toe injury that's been bothering him, another poor showing likely cements Hillman in the starting role for the second half. Meanwhile, Eddie Lacy has been bothered by an ankle injury, allowing James Starks to steal his thunder. Starks now has his own hip injury to deal with though while Lacy also got the Green Bay bye week to rest and recuperate, so he probably has a better chance than Anderson does of re-establishing his dominance. On the other hand, Anderson might have a better chance at a big game. The Broncos are third in the league in yards per carry allowed at 3.6, while the Packers have the sixth-highest mark at 4.7. ... One of the other eerie symmetries between the teams is in the pass rush. Denver leads the league with 26 sacks, while Green Bay is right behind in third with 23. The Pack, at least, got right tackle Bryan Bulaga back from a knee injury right before the bye. The Broncos have no such offensive line reinforcements coming.

Predictions: Lacy rushes for 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Richard Rodgers and, late in the fourth quarter, Davante Adams. Hillman leads the Broncos' backfield with 100 combined yards, while Manning throws for 220 yards and two TDs to Demaryius Thomas. Packers, 21-17

Indianapolis (+7) at Carolina - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: On the bright side, the Colts are still leading the AFC South. Their 3-4 record is more indicative of how poorly they've played, though, and last week's home loss to the Saints was just embarrassing, even if they did wake up in the second half. Andrew Luck continues to be interception-prone, the team leads the league in penalties with 71, and while the defense isn't the worst of the worst, it's mired in mediocrity and can't get off the field when it needs to (opponents are a perfect 4-for-4 in fourth down conversions against the Colts this season, for instance). A road trip to face the undefeated Panthers does not seem like the place for them to get their act together. ... Chris Johnson is getting all the "turning back the clock" headlines out in the desert, but Jonathan Stewart's been doing a pretty fair job of impersonating his younger self, as well. Stewart's on pace for his first 1,000-yard season since 2009, and his steadiness in the Carolina backfield has taken the pressure off a passing game that lacks reliable weapons outside of Greg Olsen. The Panthers' defense, and the emergence of Josh Norman as a name-brand shutdown corner, haven't hurt either, of course. ... If that Carolina defense has a weakness, it might come out of the backfield. The Panthers' 4.3 yards per carry allowed ranks only 22nd, and they've been vulnerable to pass-catching backs, as well. Frank Gore, who's started to earn Luck's trust as a receiver (catching five of eight targets for 32 yards against the Saints), could be the key to any upset plans the Colts have.

Predictions: Gore picks up 110 combined yards and scores. Luck throws for 240 yards and hits T.Y. Hilton for a touchdown, but also gets picked off twice again. Stewart rushes for 80 yards and a score while Cam Newton chips in 40 rushing yards of his own and throws for 220 yards and TDs to Olsen and Devin Funchess. Panthers, 24-20

Last week's record: 7-7, 9-5 ATS
Season to date: 67-38, 53-49-3 ATS

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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