This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday's massive 11-game slate will be packed with variance, as is usually the case with 22 teams on the floor. Before we begin, a little basic DFS strategy to learn or re-remember: As a rule, large slates are usually evenings where I am more likely to keep my GPP play to a minimum and focus on high-floor candidates in cash games. After I look at matchups, usage, cash values and a host of other variables, I start to spend. By spend, I mean I over-spend. I might select one 10k-plus target, but for the most part I am maxing out in the 7k-8k range. Once I've done that, I look at how much I'm over, and look at what I'm willing to part with to get me back down to even. We're always striving to get to 300 fantasy points. That will almost always net you a solid cash win. A little bit of math tells you that we need our eight players to AVERAGE 37.5 DKFP each. With every player you pick, regardless of cost, you should always look back and figure out if the lineup you made can get to that echelon. A guy like Blake Griffin on Tuesday can take care of a lot of the work (who saw 90 DKFP coming?), but one tanking player can erase that advantage quickly. Just some food for thought.
A storyline to watch Wednesday is how the Sixers move forward with Ben Simmons ($9,400) as they hit the second game of a back-to-back. Markelle Fultz and T.J. McConnell were expected to absorb much of the output, but it was J.J. Redick ($5,500) who saw the biggest boost. If Simmons sits again tonight, I'd take a serious look at Redick as one of the best values on the slate.
There are so many games with high Over/Unders here, it's hard to settle on one game to like. Instead, I will just give you one fade-worthy contest.
Pacers at Spurs (+2.5) O/U:212.5
Two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams should make for a plodding, slow affair on Wednesday. LaMarcus Aldridge has lit it up in the early going, but he's had some mediocre history against an almost identical lineup from last season. I'm always looking for reasons to justify a fade and that's good enough for me. Victor Oladipo and DeMar DeRozan always have upside, but I will pass on them tonight.
Back-to-back teams: Sixers, Kings
I'll now select three players at each position, along with a small additional list of players who hold equal weight in my predictions. When possible, I will include one top-shelf target, a mid-range player and a low-cost value play.
GUARDS
Devin Booker, PHO at LAL ($8,300): With both Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo still suspended, the opportunity is there for Booker to dominate offensively. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Hart and LeBron James alternate in defending him, because aside from Deandre Ayton, he will present the biggest scoring threat. LA will be spread thin Wednesday, so I like Booker for a stuffed stat line.
Cedi Osman, CLE vs. BKN ($5,800): I'm slipping past a whole host of players to give you more value at this position. While Osman needs to keep his turnover ratio down, the potential for value-exceeding production will happen more often than not with the hybrid guard-forward. Five turnovers against the Hawks certainly didn't help his cause, but if he can keep from coughing it up I think he has some decent potential against the Nets at home.
Josh Hart, LAL vs. PHO ($5,800): It looks like Hart and Kyle Kuzma turned out to be the primary beneficiaries of the Rondo/Ingram suspension and I see no reason to fade them on Wednesday. I especially like Hart, who's shooting an impressive 53.8 percent from the floor and 47 percent from long range over three games. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has struggled in the early going, which has given Hart the green light for more minutes in the short-term.
Other guards to consider: Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. MIN ($7,600), Trae Young, ATL vs. DAL ($7,200), Rodney McGruder, MIA at NY ($4,900)
FORWARDS
If you are looking for a more stars-and-scrubs focused play, we won't see anemic numbers from Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500), ever. I think I am prone to tinker with a Greek Freak-centric lineup every time he hits the floor, and explore lower-cost value along the way. Barring that excellent option, here are three more selections.
Kyle Kuzma, LAL vs. PHO ($6,900): Refer to Hart above. The absence of Brandon Ingram (suspension) threw Kuzma into the starting five as expected and he did not disappoint, posting a 52.5 DKFP total in a whopping 45 minutes of action. Make no mistake – Hart and Kuzma will undoubtedly be very chalky plays on Wednesday but can be dependable, lower-cost anchors on both cash and GPP lineups.
Joe Ingles, UTA at HOU ($6,700): Ingles continues to impress in the early going, shooting 57 percent from the floor and as usual, and an excellent 12-for-24 from beyond the arc. Utah has been interesting to watch, as the game script hasn't exactly been flowing Donovan Mitchell's way, and Ricky Rubio has likewise seen a downtick. This has all been good news for Ingles and Rudy Gobert, who seem to be humming right along.
Marvin Bagley III, SAC vs. MEM ($4,800): 'Volatile' would be the word to describe Bagley's usage in the first two weeks of the season, but he hit the 30-minute barrier and logged more time than Nemanja Bjelica on Tuesday. The rookie's legs should still be fresh on this back-to-back, and his 20-point, nine-assist outing versus a tough Denver defense should give the Kings confidence to keep moving in that direction.
Other forwards to consider: Khris Middleton, MIL vs. PHI ($7,000), Markieff Morris, WAS at GS ($5,700), Buddy Hield, SAC vs. MEM ($5,500)
CENTERS
Joel Embiid, PHI at MIL ($10,100): A true no-brainer here, but if you've gone for value elsewhere, feel free to spend up on Embiid. Without Ben Simmons, the other role players will still manage to find a way to get Embiid the ball. He's averaging solidly in double-double territory and plays a Bucks team that is weak against opposing centers. Embiid is always a back-to-back risk, so obviously fade him if reports suggest a rest night.
Deandre Ayton, PHO at LAL ($7,300): Tempting, but is he too expensive? He might be, but I can't resist making Ayton a GPP play in a game where LeBron will likely tell JaVale McGee to take a hike so he can teach the rookie some manners. I try to not let my game-viewing bias to influence my picks in this article, but I am looking forward to this one.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR vs. MIN ($5,600): So unless you've been living under a rock, you know that Karl-Anthony Towns can't play defense. Sure, he's a nightly double-double threat, but at seven feet he's going to get his share of rebounds. I'm talking about DEFENSE, like the ability to keep other people from getting the ball in the basket. Until he shows me some sort of paradigm shift this season, I'm always going to consider the opposing center here. Granted, Valanciunas is not my favorite, but he's played fairly well in the early going, and is definitely at a fair price point.
Additional centers to consider: Kevin Love, CLE vs. BKN ($8,800), Clint Capela, HOU vs, UTA ($6,600), Bam Adebayo (especially if Hassan Whiteside is limited or out), MIA vs. NY ($4,400)
That's it for Wednesday! Be sure to keep an eye on late scratches via RotoWire, especially with the Sixers and Kings.
