This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
For Wednesday's 10-game slate, there's really only one question to answer, and we'll get to that in a minute. First, let's talk injuries and how they might affect the slate.
The injury landscape remains static tonight, although we may see Zach LaVine (ankle) return against Minnesota. John Collins (ankle) sustained his injury on Sunday and has had a few days off to rest, so we may see him on the court, but he's still listed as questionable at this point. Kyle Lowry (back) is also doubtful.
The combo injuries of Jeff Teague (ankle) and Derrick Rose (ankle) resulted in a significant boost for Andrew Wiggins ($6,200), while Josh Okogie and Tyus Jones didn't have as much of an impact. Teague will remain out, and Rose is currently questionable. If both are out, Wiggins should prove to be a reliable play. I have a feeling Rose will suit up for this revenge game, and I fully endorse that spot if it becomes available.
OK, let's get to the pink pelican in the room. After a night chock-full of stars, Anthony Davis ($11,800) is the only super-elite guy on the slate. The next-highest salary is $2,200 away, which is one of the most significant gaps we've seen this season. So, the $11,800 question – should we play him?
My answer is yes – and no. I think to keep pace in cash, it might be impossible to NOT build around him, especially if you believe that he can hit a 65-70 DKFP total against Dallas. For GPPs, I think the better path is to avoid the highly-owned Davis and look elsewhere. The only stat that gives me pause about Davis altogether is his history against DeAndre Jordan. If you look back a couple of years and put Jordan and Davis side-by-side, AD has had his share of struggles. Yes, Davis put up 59.0 DKFP against the Mavericks, but in other tangles against Jordan last year, he managed to double-double in all of them. But for the most part, the DKFP total remained in the mid-50s. To move on Davis, you end up stuck with a remaining average salary of $5,457 for the rest of your lineup. It's doable, yes. But this pick is sort of like cream in your coffee. It's a personal preference. For me, I began by giving it a whirl but ended up far more satisfied with a Brow-free build when all was said and done. My endorsements below will reflect a move toward fading Davis.
I'll now offer three picks at guard, forward and center, with an eye toward finding a wide range of price points. Each category will be accompanied by a small list of non-highlighted players that also warrant consideration.
GUARDS
Jrue Holiday, NO at DAL ($8,800): Holiday is almost chalk if you're staying away from Davis, as he's been on fire with a four-game average of 47.5 DKFP. He had some struggles with his shot in his last game versus the Mavs, but he still managed a 40 DKFP total, so there's some comfort in knowing that even a cold streak will always yield a reasonable floor that won't hurt you too much. The same can't be said for guys like Wall and Oladipo.
Bradley Beal, WAS at DET ($8,000): Many will shy away from Beal after an underwhelming game against the Pacers, but that contest was against a tough defense and on the tail end of a back-to-back where Beal exploded for 80 DKFP on the front end. Despite a 2-of-11 showing against Indiana, he's still converting almost 50 percent of his shots over his past five games, and he's done a solid job from beyond the arc as well.
Justise Winslow, MIA vs. TOR ($5,500): With Dragic andMcGruder out I like Winslow in this spot. He heated back up with 22 points and 45 DKFP in his second game back from injury. The Raptors defense hasn't quite matched its reputation recently, and I think the Heat will be under-owned when you take this game at face value. I also like Josh Richardson ($6,700), as his reliability as a Dragic pivot has crawled back up to an acceptable level.
Other guards to consider: Devin Booker, PHO at ORL ($8,500), Jamal Murray, DEN at SA ($6,300), J.J. Barea (if he plays), DAL vs. NO ($4,800)
FORWARDS
Kawhi Leonard, TOR at MIA ($9,500): An argument can also be made for Blake Griffin for $500 less, but the Wizards are just terrible, and I fear an impending blowout. Leonard will likely play a full complement of minutes against the Heat, and he has a singular ability to take a game over when it's close and competitive, and I suspect that'll be the case on Wednesday. He played 36 minutes and put up 53 DKFP when he last played the Heat.
Tobias Harris, LAC vs. SAC ($7,800): Even though this game has one of the highest O/U numbers on the slate, I've avoided them so far because I felt like De'Aaron fox was too cost-prohibitive, but I think you get a much better value from Harris and Danilo Gallinari for $500 less. The offense's engine will come from the inside for the Clippers as the Kings can be stingy at the perimeter.
Pascal SIakam, TOR at MIA ($6,500): You can't get more rock-solid than Siakam's last three games, as he's posted three consecutive 38 DKFP in each contest. He also put up 41 DKFP alongside Kawhi when they last played the Heat. If he can keep up the rebounding totals, the points will come, and he's got the potential for 40 DKFP once again.
I should also add a quick note about Julius Randle ($7,900). I think it goes without saying that he's almost a standard pivot with Nikola Mirotic (ankle) out, but his recent totals have taken a slight dip over the past few games. I think that trend should change against Dallas as he put up over 50 DKFP in their last contest, but at this point, I think he carries a bit more risk considering his recent streak. He ended up falling into more GPP lineups for me, as his cost just seemed to high relative to his recent contribution.
Other forwards to consider: Buddy Hield, SAC at LAC ($7,200), Domantas Sabonis, IND at ATL ($6,200), Mason Plumlee, DEN at SA ($5,100)
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at CHI ($9,400): Towns gets the nod for me over Andre Drummond ($9,200) due to the blowout potential, but I think both guys are reasonable plays. I also like Towns due to the 73 DKFP beat-down he gave to the Bulls in their last meeting. Both Washington and Chicago have trouble against opposing centers, so I again stress that Drummond and Towns are practically interchangeable at the top spot.
Myles Turner, IND at ATL ($8,000): I especially like this pick if John Collins is limited tonight, but the Hawks rank dead-last versus opposing centers, and when you consider Victor Oladipo's recent shooting struggles, I think the Pacers will lean on Turner and Domantas Sabonis. He's averaged double-double numbers over the past five games, and I'd expect a similar total tonight.
Montrezl Harrell, LAC vs. SAC ($5,700): The high O/U and a weak Kings defense compel me to keep my involvement high in this game. Harrell's output is entirely minutes-dependent, and I'd like to see 28 minutes from him to get the kind of total we're looking for. He tends to disappear when the Clippers are blown out, but the team is one of the biggest surprises in the West, and that sort of thing hasn't happened that often.
Other centers to consider: Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs. PHO ($8,900), WillieCauley-Stein, SAC at LAC ($6,500)
