Hoops Lab: Digging Yourself Out of the Basement

Is it time to panic?

Last week on the RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today radio show, and host Chris Liss asked me if fantasy owners should panic if they found themselves in the basement at this point in the season. My answer was that the answer depends upon whether it was a head-to-head or a rotisserie league. In a H2H league, there is still plenty of time to go, and thus no reason to panic. In most leagues, you only have to get into the top-6 in order to make the playoffs, so unless your team is playing like the fantasy version of the 76ers, you should still be within range of the sixth place team. You definitely want to improve your team as best you can to get out of the basement, but there is no need to panic.

In rotisserie, on the other hand ... panic is too strong of a word, but it's definitely time to make it happen. Roto leagues have a lot of inertia, so if your team gets out quickly, that can carry even through cold spells. And the same is true in reverse, a slow start can be very difficult to overcome. So, if you are going to try to steer your team all the way around to a new direction, then the time to start turning the wheel is NOW. Not just now, but RIGHT now.

But what can you do? After all, it's not like your league-mates are just going to give you something for nothing. Those same players that have you in the basement of your league are probably not going to have excellent trade value. Likely, your team has been beset by injury, pushing your production down below your expectation. Maybe you have some players that started "slow", and you're trying to decide whether it's just a slow start or is it going to be an off year. Sound familiar?

First, you have to have a plan. Start from your standings and define the "how" of your teams badness. On a scale of 1-10, is your team full of 4s and 5s across the board, or do you have some 9s and they're offset by some 1s and 2s? Also, how far are you behind the teams in front of you in each category? Are you just at the bottom of a rung of a lot of teams who are all within a reasonable range of each other, or are you WAY behind the pack in that category? You want to make a blueprint for both the short-term and the long-term, building your team to move aggressively in the categories where you could potentially catch several teams quickly and building steadily in the areas that you have further to go.

One pair of categories that absolutely should get your attention are the two percentages, field goal and free throw. Those are the two categories with the MOST inertia, the ones that are the hardest to turn around, and the ones that let you "cheat" a bit down the stretch. Over the last third of the season in just about every league, there are owners that have no chance to place and stop paying as much attention. Those teams stop picking up free agents, stop adjusting their lineups for injuries, and sometimes stop adjusting their lineups at all. If one of those teams is only reasonably ahead of your team in counting categories, there's a good chance that you can catch them and get easy points in those categories down the stretch of the season. That won't work in the percentage categories, though, because failing to set a lineup won't cause those teams to fall off there the way it does in counting categories. Thus, if your own basement-dwelling team isn't great at the percentages, try to change that immediately. Whatever moves you make, keep those shooting percentages in mind, and make sure that by the end of the season that's a team strength.

Next, start managing your game limits more efficiently. If you have been playing a lot of your less effective bench players just to field a full lineup, stop doing so. In leagues with game limits, it doesn't matter WHEN you use those games. So, instead of trotting out a player that you know isn't going to help your team, instead, hold onto that game and wait for a time when your team has been re-distributed and you have a better player to use those minutes. On the flip side, don't worry about going (well) over your games limit pace for certain positions if you have a surplus there. If you have five or six producing centers on your team and weak perimeter players, overload those big man minutes with good production now so that you can eventually trade bigs for smalls and try to make up ground with some of those perimeter players later.

Live on the free agency wire. This one comes down to how much time you have to put into this game, how much energy you want to put forth, and whether your league has daily free agent transactions. If you can, stay up until the early AM every night to listen to the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast for the day to learn who is injured and who is unexpectedly playing well. Beat your league-mates to the punch in getting the hot pick-up that suddenly has a larger opportunity to produce starter numbers. You know how, in fantasy football, some owners stream defenses (e.g. adding/dropping defenses week-to-week based on the match-up)? Well, if you're able to get the useful short-term starter enough times, you can stream useful free agents that are almost starting caliber. The two games that Jason Terry started over the weekend for the point-guard-injured Rockets and produced averages of 17 points, 5.0 assists, 4.5 boards and 2.0 steals. When Ricky Rubio went down, Mo Williams became a double-double threat on a nightly basis, and after Williams went down, Zach LaVine picked up right where he left off. Tony Wroten and Reggie Jackson were some of the best producers in the league while their more heralded teammates were injured. The point is, for each of these players, the upside is temporary. But, if you can consistently get to this player before your league-mates, then you can essentially add consistent quality production for nothing except a bit of time and energy.

Then, finally, it's time to start thinking trade. One of the keys to good trading is to not always focusing on trying to hit a home run or targeting the best players on other teams. Most owners don't like to trade their best player and will overcharge if you aim for them. Instead, go back and look at the strategies you developed above. Don't be afraid to make category-centric moves. Don't be afraid to make multi-player deals instead of aiming at one big player. Make sure that if you trade for a volume scorer he doesn't hurt your percentages. Identify percentage role players and make moves for them, as percentage difference makers don't usually affect the Yahoo! rankings as much as guys that specialize in treys or blocks. Don't have a fire sale, as it's too early for panic, but also don't be afraid to trade the better players on your team if you can do so as part of advantageous deals.

So, if you're in the basement more than a month into the season, don't panic, and don't throw in the towel. It's not too late to turn it around. But if you're going to do it, it's time to get going.

Around the League

Durant still restricted:Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both returned to the lineup for the Thunder in the last two weeks, but they aren't completely back to normal. Westbrook has been producing great stats (26 ppg, 50% FG, 75% FT, 7.2 apg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 spg over his last five games), but he is still only playing 31 mpg over that stretch (well down from the 35 mpg he averaged from 2011-2013). He's producing so efficiently, though, that he's essentially matching expectations even in the fewer minutes. Durant, on the other hand, is on a strict minutes restriction of 30 mpg as he tries to work himself back into shape. His per-36 minute numbers for his first week are only slightly off the pace from his MVP season last year (27.1 pts, 6.8 reb, 4.9 ast per 36 on 49% FG and 89% FT through four games this year vs. 29.9 pts, 6.9 reb, 5.1 ast per 36 on 50.3% FG and 87.3% FT last season), but he's currently only playing about 75% of his normal minutes and thus is producing only 75% of the expected stats. Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks did not state when he would lift the restriction, but it appears that he'll stick to it in the near future. Brooks also hasn't decided whether Durant will play both ends of back-to-backs yet, which could further limit him. If you have Durant, you're still overjoyed that he was able to return to the court sooner than expected, but it seems that you shouldn't expect the real Durant to make his appearance just yet.

Cousins' meningitis is serious:DeMarcus Cousins' health situation has become clearer and simultaneously scarier this week with the news that his illness is actually viral meningitis. He has not played since November 26, initially blamed on "illness", and the Kings have announced that he will continue to be out at least through this week. Meningitis is a serious health condition, and the speed of recovery is not fully known. Though I hope for Cousins to have as speedy of a recovery as possible, I wouldn't be surprised if he is out until around Christmas.

Leonard's youth lets him play through Spurs maintenance plan: A lot has been written in recent years about how the Spurs routinely rest stars Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili over the course of the long NBA season in order to keep them fresh and healthy for the playoffs. While good for their playoff performances, this maintenance program has been havoc on fantasy owners and kept the Spurs from having a true fantasy stud. However, with Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard just a week past his 23rd birthday, he has the youth to be able to play every day, even through the Spurs' maintenance program. This has the effect of making him a solid option on most nights, but a great option on the nights when his superstar teammates rest and the offense runs more completely through him. In the last game that Duncan missed for maintenance, Leonard dropped a season-high 26 points with 10 boards and four assists, which are all well above his season averages.

Lillard sprains two fingers on right hand, playing through:Damian Lillard sprained two fingers on his shooting hand last week, but is playing through the injury with splints on the fingers. His minutes and peripheral stats have remained consistent over the last two games with the splints, but his shooting is clearly struggling as he tries to adapt. He is 11-for-30 (36.7% FG) from the field in his last two games, after shooting 35-for-77 (45.5% FG) from the field in the five games before that. Keep him in your lineups as usual, but don't be surprised if his shooting stroke remains off until he is able to either adjust or remove the splints.

Lowry since DeRozan went down:DeMar DeRozan went down with a torn adductor longus tendon on November 28, and still has no timetable to return. In his absence, running mate Kyle Lowry has exploded to the tune of 24.3 points and 10.3 assists in 40 minutes per game over his last six outings. The Raptors are clearly depending on Lowry to play a larger role without DeRozan, and Lowry seems primed to produce mega-star numbers for as long as DeRozan is out.

Carter-Williams exploded but Wroten is due back this week: A few weeks ago, the question was whether to try to sell-high on Tony Wroten since Michael Carter-Williams was due to return soon. Wroten had played great in Carter-Williams' absence, and even when MCW returned, Wroten remained in the starting lineup at shooting guard. However, Wroten injured his knee at the end of November and has missed the last five games. Over that stretch, MCW has exploded to average a near triple-double with 19.6 points, 12.2 assists and 9.0 rebounds per game. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, where owners have to consider trading high on MCW in the face of Wroten's potential return. I expect MCW to continue to put up big numbers even after Wroten returns, but he won't have the ball in his hands quite as much and with neither as a great shooter the floor might be a bit clogged as well. I'd only trade MCW if I'm getting first round caliber return for him, but if you can get that, it might be worth it to sell high.

Lopez and Johnson out in Brooklyn:Brook Lopez is battling back spasms and is expected to be out of the lineup until at least next week. Joe Johnson fell ill on Sunday, and after initially being listed as probable to play on Monday was forced to sit out on Monday and has already been announced as out for Wednesday night. This creates a vacuum in scoring for the Nets, with Deron Williams as the most obvious candidate to increase his volume. This also opens up a starting slot for Mirza Teletovic, who had excelled to average 23 points in the two games that he started in place of Kevin Garnett earlier this season. Garnett is another potential beneficiary, as he has produced noticeably better from the center slot over the last few years and has a chance to become a primary scorer for the Nets in the interim.

New Additions

K.J. McDaniels (48% owned in Yahoo! leagues): McDaniels has set himself up as a great GarbageMan for the 76ers since he started getting starter's minutes, averaging 13 points with 8.0 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.3 three-pointers over the last two weeks. It is unknown how Tony Wroten's return might affect his playing time, but he's young and showing that he can produce, which should get him playing time on a poor 76ers team.

Mo Williams (33% owned): Earlier in the season, I mentioned Zach LaVine as a potential pick-up in the Timberwolves backcourt while Ricky Rubio is out, and he's still worth a look when getting starter's minutes, but when healthy, Mo Williams has grabbed the reigns for the Timberwolves. Williams is currently nursing a back injury that has him sidelined, but in the games leading up to the injury, he was averaging 16.8 points, 9.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 2.5 treys and 1.8 steals on 45% FG and 87% FT.

Shabazz Muhammad (5% owned): Another Timberwolves player that has taken advantage of increased opportunity due to injury is Muhammad, who has averaged 15.1 points on 55% FG with 3.8 boards in only 21 mpg over the last two weeks. The production is unsustainable if his minutes remain low, but he has produced at least 18 points in each of his last four games, where he has played at least 21 minutes and could be playing himself into a larger role if he can regain his health (currently battling a sprained ankle).

Keeping up with the Professor

If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the RotoWire fantasy basketball podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on CLNS radio about once a month.