Hoops Lab: Re-evaluating the Rookies

Last July, after I returned from the Las Vegas Summer League, I wrote an article projecting this year's lottery pick rookies. With the end of the season in sight, let's take a look at how this class is performing versus my expectations:

Karl-Anthony Towns: WAY exceeding expectation

Projected: 32 min, 12.0 pts, 8.0 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.5 blk, 0.8 stl, 0.4 3-ptrs, 47% FG, 76% FT
Actual: 31 min, 17.7 pts, 10.2 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.8 blk, 0.7 stl, 0.3 3-ptrs, 54.5% FG, 82.3% FT
Last 20: 34.6 min, 22 pts, 11.5 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.7 blk, 0.7 stl, 0.4 3-ptrs, 57.5% FG, 77.4% FT

Towns is far better than anticipated on offense, with a mid-range face-up game that makes him deadly from 18-feet and in. His moves are polished, his motor is high, and after a strong start he is actually accelerating through the finish line (check those numbers from his last 20 games). He will be a high-round draft pick in fantasy drafts starting next year, perhaps with consideration for a first-round slot.

D'Angelo Russell: Late bloomer now justifying draft slot

Projected: 34 min, 15.0 pts, 5.0 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.2 stl, 3.0 TO, 1.4 3-ptrs, 44% FG, 80% FT
Actual: 27.9 min, 13.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.4 TO, 1.7 3-ptrs, 42.7% FG, 71.1% FT
Last 10: 32.1 min, 19.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.1 stl, 2.1 TO, 2.7 3-ptrs, 47.9% FG, 73.8% FT

Russell struggled a bit with his offense in the Las Vegas Summer League, which tempered expectations a bit after he created such a huge pre-draft buzz that made him the No. 2 pick overall. He has played close to expectation all season, but in the last few weeks he seems to have reached another gear. As his numbers over the last 10 games show he is playing at a much higher level and is finishing off the season as an impact player.

Jahlil Okafor: As advertised

Projected: 32 min, 16.5 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.5 ast, 0.7 blk, 50% FG, 40% FT
Actual: 30 min, 17.5 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.2 blk, 50.8% FG, 68.6% FT

Okafor has been pretty much what we expected; his scoring ability and polish, his rebounding, his role in the offense, everything has gone pretty much according to plan. The biggest surprise has been his improved free-throw shooting, which has allowed him to be productive without the dreaded anchor category.

Kristaps Porzingis: WAY exceeded expectation, though hitting a wall

Projected: 20 min, 9.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 0.9 blk, 0.6 stl, 48% FG
Actual: 27.8 min, 13.9 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.9 blk, 0.8 stl, 42.4% FG

Porzingis jumped out of the gates in a huge way, earning a starting nod early in the season and showing that the flashes he displayed in Vegas were real. He was one of the most eye-catching rookies in Vegas, as I wrote at the time, but he was able to translate that to work against NBA-level competition earlier than expected. The Knicks fans that once booed are now overjoyed with their 2015 lottery selection.

Mario Hezonja: Underperforming expectation

Projected: 28 min, 11.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.5 3-ptr, 42% FG
Actual: 16.1 min, 5.7 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.1 ast, 0.8 3-ptr, 42.3% FG

Hezonja was billed as being NBA ready, but he has not been able to break into the rotation in a meaningful way in Orlando. He has gotten some extra run lately due to injuries to Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo, and he has shown flashes, but this was much more of a developmental year than anticipated.

Willie Cauley-Stein: Slight under-achiever

Projected: 26 min, 8.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.9 blk, 51% FG, 62% FT
Actual: 19.5 min, 6.2 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.0 blk, 60.2% FG, 61.5% FT

Cauley-Stein has been pretty close to expectation, though he's playing fewer minutes and his shot-blocking hasn't translated as expected.

Emmanuel Mudiay: Hitting stride

Projected: 34 min,13.0 pts, 6.5 ast, 3.8 reb, 41% FG, 1.4 stl
Actual: 30.4 min, 11.7 pts, 5.8 ast, 3.4 reb, 34.5% FG, 1.1 stl
Last 10: 31.4 min, 13.1 pts, 5.7 ast, 4.0 reb, 36.2% FG, 1.2 stl

Mudiay was expected to be an impact rookie, and he has been for most of the year. His shooting percentage has been ghastly all year, which has held him back, but his overall production is going according to plan and he seems to be picking things up a bit as the season winds down.

Stanley Johnson: Showed flashes

Projected: 23 min, 11.0 pts, 48% FG, 4.9 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 0.7 blk
Actual: 23.9 min, 9.0 pts, 39.1% FG, 4.2 reb, 1.6 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.2 blk

Johnson has shown flashes that suggest he is a long-term upside player for the Pistons, but his shooting and defense were both a bit worse than anticipated, which has kept him from being a viable roto option for most of the season.

Frank Kaminsky: At expectation

Projected: 18 min, 7.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 45% FG, 1.0 3-ptr, 0.7 blk
Actual: 21.1 min, 7.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 40.2% FG, 0.8 3-ptr, 0.6 blk

He is who we THOUGHT he was.

Justise Winslow: Underperformed

Projected: 25 min, 11.0 pts, 43% FG, 3.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.1 stl, 65% FT
Actual: 28.2 min, 6.1 pts, 42.7% FG, 5.3 reb, 1.4 ast, 0.8 stl, 69.1% FT

Winslow has been a bit of a disappointment, but really only as a scorer. His role and all-around game have gone similar to form, but there was a thought that he might be an impact rookie and his lack of scoring has kept that from being the case on the roto front.

Myles Turner: Came as advertised after Vegas

Projected: 27 min, 12.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 53% FG, 1.6 blk

Actual: 22.6 min, 10.4 pts, 5.1 reb, 50.4% FG, 1.5 blk
Last 20: 29.2 min, 12.4 pts, 6.4 reb, 47% FG, 1.7 blk

Turner was one of the most impressive rookies in the summer leagues, and that has carried forward into the season. He's a plus scorer and an excellent shot-blocker, even as a rookie, and he should be on everyone's fantasy radar moving into next season.

Trey Lyles: About as expected

Projected: 18 min, 7.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 43% FG, 1.0 3-ptrs, 0.7 stl
Actual: 16.2 min, 4.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 41.9% FG, 0.4 3-ptrs, 0.2 stl

Lyles performed about as expected, with too small of a role for much fantasy relevance.

Devin Booker: Injuries cleared way for him to bloom

Projected: 23 min, 10.0 pts, 42% FG, 1.3 3-ptr, 3.7 reb, 1.5 ast, 0.7 stl
Actual: 24.8 min, 11.4 pts, 42.8% FG, 1.2 3-ptr, 2.2 reb, 2.1 ast, 0.5 stl
Last 20: 35 min, 16.5 pts, 38.0% FG, 1.9 3-ptrs, 3.0 reb, 3.9 ast, 0.6 stl

Booker got his big chance due to injuries in the Suns' starting backcourt, and he has taken advantage of it. For the season, his numbers are almost exactly on projection, but over his last 20 games he has outperformed those numbers as he has settled in to his role as the starting shooting guard and one of the primary offensive threats for the Suns.

Cameron Payne: Smaller role than expected

Projected: 19 min, 7.0 pts, 4.5 ast, 2.0 reb, 0.8 3-ptrs, 0.8 stl
Actual: 11.5 min, 5.1 pts, 1.9 ast, 1.6 reb, 0.7 3-ptrs, 0.7 stl

Payne hasn't played enough to be fantasy relevant.

Around the NBA

• Jimmy Butler returned Saturday from an 11-game injury layoff, but he experienced swelling in his knee after the game that forced him to miss out Monday. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg said that Butler's knee is feeling better, but it is still unknown whether he will be able to play Thursday.

• Nikola Vucevic has missed the last two games with a groin injury that made him a surprise scratch Sunday. The injury isn't expected to be serious, but he is day-to-day, with Jason Smith replacing him in the starting lineup.

• Eric Gordon re-broke his right ring finger and underwent season-ending surgery. With Gordon joining Tyreke Evans on the sideline for the season, it would seem that Jrue Holliday should be the big recipient of perimeter offensive opportunities for the Pelicans.

• Michael Carter-Williams has a torn labrum in his left hip and will miss the rest of the season. Carter-Williams had already moved to a role off the bench, allowing the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo to turn into Magic Johnson.

• Bradley Beal has missed the last couple of games with an injured pelvis but hopes to return for the final two games of the current road trip. The injury doesn't seem serious, so he should be able to return sooner rather than later.

• Lou Williams has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss at least one more. His absence has allowed the Lakers' young backcourt of D'Angelo Williams and Jordan Clarkson to get more minutes together and show some impressive synergy. It could be argued that the Lakers would be better served if both Williams and Kobe Bryant were to fade more to the background to let the youngsters run things down the stretch, but for now the plan seems to be for the veterans to get healthy and resume their usual roles.

Back-to-backs 3/8 – 3/15
TW: Knicks, Jazz
WT: Cavaliers, Suns
TF: Bulls
FS: Hornets, Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Grizzlies, Heat, Pelicans, Thunder, Magic, 76ers, Trail Blazers, Wizards
SS: Hawks, Pacers, Bucks
SM: Cavaliers, Jazz
MT: Nuggets, Raptors

New Additions and DFS Values

Gary Harris (41 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues): Harris has picked up the scoring slack since Danilo Gallinari went down, averaging 17 points (50% FG, 75% FT), 3.2 boards, 2.2 made treys, 1.8 steals and 1.7 assists per game over his last six. He's playing major minutes, 39 per game over that stretch, and shows no sign of slowing down.

Mario Chalmers (35 percent): Chalmers was already playing good as a spark-plug scorer off the bench (14 points, 3.2 assists, 3.0 steals, 2.0 boards, 0.8 treys per game over five contests leading into Monday) but he stepped it up Monday in a spot start replacing the injured Mike Conley, finishing with 17 points, seven assists, four steals, four boards and a trey. Conley is out for at least one more game, if not longer, so Chalmers is worth some run.

Patty Mills (16 percent):Tony Parker is out with a toe injury, and the Spurs have absolutely no impetus to rush him back. The Spurs just sat all of their veterans (Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan) on Tuesday and will continue to rest them as needed to keep them fresh for the playoffs. Andre Miller is starting for Parker, but Mills has better scoring ability and could end up playing more minutes as Miller also has old legs.

JayMichael Green (13 percent): With Marc Gasol done for the year and both Zach Randolph and Brandan Wright struggling with their own injuries, it has left the floor open for Green. Over the last two games, Green is averaging 16.5 points (55% FG, 78.6% FT), 7.5 boards, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. Green is young and thriving, and it seems like he should maintain a somewhat larger role.