NBA Category Strategy: Quantity vs. Quality

NBA Category Strategy: Quantity vs. Quality

This article is part of our NBA Category Strategy series.

The Toronto Raptors play five games, the Los Angeles Lakers play twice and every other team is scheduled for three or four games this week.

Every night this week encompasses six, eight or nine games. An extremely balanced schedule allows those in daily moves leagues the opportunity to stream a new player every night. If you're looking for available contributors with plenty of minutes at hand, comb through the Raptors' and Grizzlies' rosters in your fantasy league.

If your head-to-head playoffs begin Monday and lasts three weeks, check out this article. If it begins this week and runs through the end of the season, reference this article.

Toronto Raptors

Every fantasy source you consult will insist you consider adding Raptors players because of their five-game week. It makes sense if you're in a head-to-head league and the fantasy playoffs commence or have already begun.

It's a discussion of quantity versus quality. More games offers increased opportunity at accumulating stats. Would five potential games from Terrence Ross dwarf three games from Danny Green or four games from Mike Dunleavy? If all three met their averages since the All-Star break, you would expect these outputs:

Week 21 Projected Totals PTS REB AST STL BLK 3PT
Danny Green (3 games) 18.6 12.0 6.0 4.2 2.7 2.4
Mike Dunleavy (4 games) 41.2 15.2 6.8 1.2 1.2 7.2
Terrence Ross (5 games) 52.5 11.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 10.5

Ross would offer considerably more points and three-pointers than Green and Dunleavy, but Dunleavy
The Toronto Raptors play five games, the Los Angeles Lakers play twice and every other team is scheduled for three or four games this week.

Every night this week encompasses six, eight or nine games. An extremely balanced schedule allows those in daily moves leagues the opportunity to stream a new player every night. If you're looking for available contributors with plenty of minutes at hand, comb through the Raptors' and Grizzlies' rosters in your fantasy league.

If your head-to-head playoffs begin Monday and lasts three weeks, check out this article. If it begins this week and runs through the end of the season, reference this article.

Toronto Raptors

Every fantasy source you consult will insist you consider adding Raptors players because of their five-game week. It makes sense if you're in a head-to-head league and the fantasy playoffs commence or have already begun.

It's a discussion of quantity versus quality. More games offers increased opportunity at accumulating stats. Would five potential games from Terrence Ross dwarf three games from Danny Green or four games from Mike Dunleavy? If all three met their averages since the All-Star break, you would expect these outputs:

Week 21 Projected Totals PTS REB AST STL BLK 3PT
Danny Green (3 games) 18.6 12.0 6.0 4.2 2.7 2.4
Mike Dunleavy (4 games) 41.2 15.2 6.8 1.2 1.2 7.2
Terrence Ross (5 games) 52.5 11.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 10.5

Ross would offer considerably more points and three-pointers than Green and Dunleavy, but Dunleavy has the rebounding edge and Green runs away with steals and blocks. Again, this supposes they produce at a reasonable rate and play all their games. Injury or rest will ruin your preparation.

Ultimately, knowing your opponent's strengths and weaknesses is as important as constructing a solid roster this week. Ross may add 50 points and 11 threes to your total if he plays all five games, but if you're projected to win or lose either category by a significant margin, adding Ross doesn't alter the course of your matchup. Blindly adding someone because of their game count is improper roster management.

You don't have to keep these players on your team all week if you compete in a daily moves head-to-head league. It may be in your best interest to move off the Raptors before next week because they play three times in Week 22. Dropping them for someone on the Knicks or Clippers after the Raptors' fourth game Friday can maximize your games played because both coastal teams are scheduled for two games over the weekend. If all turns out well, you would have recorded six games played.

DeMarre Carroll (knee) may return by the end of the week. He ranks third on the team in minutes per game (31.9), and no one other than the Raptors' two All-Stars has cracked 29 minutes per game in Carroll's absence. Reintroducing Carroll will negatively impact Ross' playing time, as well as Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola given Carroll's ability to defend power forwards. Any chatter about Carroll's return for next Sunday's match assuages the argument for discarding the Raptors' reserves after their first four games.

The Raptors are two games behind the Cavaliers for the top spot in the East and all five games this week feature Eastern Conference opponents. I'm inclined to believe coach Dwane Casey will play his players their usual allotments, but a stretch of five games in seven nights could lead to unforeseen rest days.

Bismack Biyombo will provide solid block and rebound support; Ross is second on the Raptors in made threes while shooting a team-high 39.5 percent from downtown; Cory Joseph will add to your assist tracker; Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola are marginal options, but Patterson is third on the team in minutes per game since the All-Star break, elevating his status.

Instead of following through on last week's promise by suggesting every available Raptor for each category, I'm going to provide alternatives combined with data on Raptors to assist your decision-making process. I'll repeat one more time: don't blindly add someone; they may not enter your active lineup every night or their strong categories won't help swing your matchup. Know what you need and when to move on.

POINTS
Lance Stephenson (SG/SF)

Terrence Ross is averaging 10.5 points per game since the All-Star break. If he hits his average this week, you'll register 52 points. Stephenson witnessed a 24-percent jump in ownership this week, and he's owned in 36 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 27.8 percent of ESPN leagues. In fact, JaMychal Green is owned in more ESPN leagues than Stephenson, but Stephenson is owned in more ESPN leagues than Matt Barnes. All three Grizzlies are owned in fewer ESPN leagues than Marc Gasol (knee) at 35.4 percent. Recommending Stephenson is more of a reminder to check your free agent pool than it is a sly maneuver. Consider Ross a fallback option if all the viable Grizzlies have been scooped up already.

REBOUNDS
JaMychal Green (PF)
Biyombo has averaged 7.0 rebounds in 21 minutes per game since the All-Star break, potentially leading to 35 rebounds this week in five games. Alternatively, Green's ownership rose 30 percentage points to 32 percent by Friday morning in Yahoo! leagues and nestled in at 36 percent by Saturday night. The Grizzlies play four games this week, and Green corralled 41 rebounds over the last four games without Zach Randolph (knee) and Chris Andersen (shoulder). Green leads the Grizzlies in minutes (179) over the past seven games, resulting in the rebounding spike. However, he averaged three fewer rebounds per 100 possessions compared to Biyombo, who'll graciously buffer your blocks. Assuming neither are available, Steven Adams benefits from four games, three of which feature Eastern Conference foes.

ASSISTS
Shelvin Mack (PG)

Cory Joseph has averaged 3.3 assists per game since the All-Star break. At five games, you're banking on 16 assists this week. Mack has recorded at least four assists in six straight games and leads the Jazz with 4.2 assists per game since the All-Star break. Utah plays one fewer game than the Raptors this week, and both Joseph and Mack may end up tallying similar, yet unremarkable numbers. Neither inspires confidence, and assist staples Dennis Schroder and Donald Sloan are limited to three games this week. This was the toughest category to prognosticate. At least with Joseph, you may receive one game when Kyle Lowry rests.

STEALS
Corey Brewer (SG/SF)

Aside from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, no one on the Raptors averaged at least one steal per game over the last month; Cory Joseph had moments, but that's not his forte. Brewer was moved into the starting lineup Saturday night to begin the second half, and he's averaged 1.5 steals per game since the All-Star break. He's one of 25 players this season with at least five games of four or more steals, all of which occurred in fewer than 27 minutes. Tony Allen and Brewer are prototypical boom-or-bust players, but Allen has assumed larger offensive responsibility and likely isn't available in your league.

BLOCKS
Ian Mahinmi (C)

Biyombo has averaged a team-high 1.5 blocks per game since the All-Star break. Jerami Grant will be a great option if he clears concussion protocol by Tuesday's game. However, those in weekly lock leagues can't wait for the news. I chose Mahinmi even though the Pacers play three times this week. My other option aside from Biyombo was Jusuf Nurkic due to coach Mike Malone's pledge to get Nurkic more involved the rest of the season. Nurkic responded with 17 points and two blocks in 18 minutes Saturday night. Although the Nuggets hold the edge in games this week by one, Nurkic averages 6.7 fouls per 36 minutes. There's no guarantee he'll play in both games of the upcoming back-to-back set, so if you're choosing between Mahinmi and Nurkic, pick Mahinmi for security purposes. If it's straight blocks you desire, Biyombo becomes the primary target with the caveat that he would start in your locked lineup or play all five games in your daily moves head-to-head league. If you discover Biyombo likely won't be in your active lineup all five contests, he loses his games advantage and can be treated like all other players with four games this week.

THREE-POINTERS
Isaiah Canaan (PG)

Ross has averaged 2.1 threes in 24 minutes per game since the All-Star break. As previously disclosed, DeMarre Carroll's return may curtail Ross' opportunity this week. Given the rash of injuries emanating out of Philadelphia, Canaan is the preeminent choice if you're targeting bulk three-pointers. He started Saturday night and made four threes in 33 minutes. Without Jahlil Okafor (knee) for the rest of the season, Robert Covington (concussion) for at least one more game and Jerami Grant (concussion) for an undetermined amount of time, Canaan's playing time and immediate fantasy value elevates. The uncertainty regarding the Sixers' injured players makes Ross the safer option.

Both Canaan and Ross are one-week rentals. Jerryd Bayless is the long-term add in rotisserie leagues and most head-to-head formats following season-ending injuries to Michael Carter-Williams (hip) and O.J. Mayo (ankle).

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
J.J. Calle
J.J. Calle is a fantasy basketball prognosticator with mesmerizing hair who also aggregates obscure stats. Allegiances reside with the New York Knicks, New York Mets, Houston Texans, Penn State Nittany Lions, St. John's Red Storm, and Gael Monfils.
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