This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to avoid: Detroit Pistons vs Denver Nuggets: The Pistons currently rank fifth in the NBA in team defensive rating, in large part because they are third in the NBA in opponent EFG% -- they make it hard for opponents to make shots. Meanwhile, their Saturday opponents the Nuggets are bad shooters anyway, currently seventh-from-the-bottom in the league. Seems like a bad combo for Nuggets players on Saturday.
Offense(s) to Use: Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks: The Kings and Bucks are currently tied for the seventh-worst defensive ratings in the league at 107.8 points allowed per 100 possessions. There is good value from high-end to low-end on both teams, and neither defense is likely to do much to prevent the other from getting what they want.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Nuggets, Bucks, Kings
Second game: Hawks, Bulls, Clippers, Spurs, Wizards
Guards
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs SAC ($9500):James Harden and Russell Westbrook are playing on Saturday and have higher scoring likelihood than Antetokounmpo, but their prices are sky-high which makes it hard to build around them (plus, Westbrook has the early game and isn't available on all DraftKings game options for Saturday). Chris Paul is a lower-priced option, but he's on the second night of a back-to-back and has to face the Spurs, which lowers his likelihood to explode. Antetokounmpo has a mega-explosion potential against a nonchalant Kings defense, and his price is still low enough to be able to put other talent around him as well.
Evan Fournier, ORL vs WAS ($6100): Fournier has been playing consistently well (22.7 points, 3.7 assists, 2.7 treys, 2.7 boards over last three games) and the Wizards flatly stink guarding opposing wings (29th against opposing shooting guards, according to DraftKings).
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET vs DEN ($4900): KCP's average is still a bit depressed because he was held to only five points, one board and one assist in the season opener. In the three games since, though, he has averaged 18.3 points, 5.3 boards, 2.7 treys, 2.3 steals and 2.3 assists which is much more reflective of his expected value.
Forwards
Kawhi Leonard, SA vs LAC ($8800): Kawhi just keeps rolling along, averaging 29.5 points, 9.0 boards and 3.0 assists in a home-and-home with a tough Jazz defense. He is being relied upon to handle the ball a bit more, with Tony Parker injured. Outside of an occasionally expected Popovic DNP-Rest, Leonard is a consistent monster right now.
Rudy Gay, SAC at MIL ($6800): Gay had a bit of an off game in his last outing, scoring only 16 points with two boards and two assists against the Magic. In his three games before that, though, he averaged 26.7 points with 6. Boards and 2.7 assists. Plus, he faces a shaky Bucks defense on Saturday.
Otto Porter, WAS at ORL ($5000): Porter has had trouble getting consistent shots in a Wizards offense that has so many options, but on Saturday lead-option John Wall will be sitting to rest his knee. This gives Porter the opportunity to improve on his current 23.8 fantasy points/game average with more offensive responsibilities.
Centers
Andre Drummond, DET vs DEN ($7700): It was tempting to put Dwight Howard here in a revenge game against his former team the Rockets, but Howard is on the second night of a back-to-back and is no spring chicken anymore, while Drummond is rested and facing a Nuggets frontline that is big enough for him to match-up well against but that struggles to hold down opposing centers (20th in production allowed to opposing centers, per DraftKings).
Jusuf Nurkic, DEN at DET ($6500): While Nikola Jokic has the bigger name of the two, it has been Nurkic that has been the best big man in Denver this year. The giant is averaging 16.5 points, 10.3 boards and 2.3 blocks and has been consistently strong in every contest this season.
Joel Embiid, PHI vs CLE ($5600): Embiid is playing limited minutes and missing B2Bs, but when he's on the court he's so electric that it doesn't even matter. His per-minute stats are impressive, as he's averaging 17.3 points, 6.3 boards and 2.7 blocks despite only playing 20.6 minutes per game on the year. He is coming off of his highest minutes total of the season (25), in which he casually produced 18 points, 10 boards, four blocks and three assists against the Hornets.
