This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
San Antonio Spurs, vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Despite a hiccup against the Bucks in their last game, the Spurs are still giving up the second-fewest points (97.8) per game. They should have plenty of motivation to put their rather surprising defeat to Milwaukee behind them and will be on their home court. The Lakers have also been a much less potent offense on the road, with their 101.1 points per game away from the Staples Center ranking significantly lower than their 108.7 figure at home.
Offense To Use
San Antonio Spurs, vs. Los Angeles Lakers: San Antonio also looks to be in a highly favorable position on the other side of the ball Thursday, as the Lakers have given up 109.7 points per contest on the road, along with the highest shooting percentage (47.6) in the league. The Spurs are shooting 47.0 percent at home, and have scored 110 to 127 points in seven of their last nine games overall.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Nets, Pistons
Second game of a back-to-back: Knicks
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Eric Bledsoe, PHO vs. DAL ($7,100): Bledsoe is distinctly behind the likes of Russell Westbrook and James Harden in terms of both hype and price at the guard position on a nightly basis, but his recent production is considerably beyond his current cost. Bledsoe has averaged 44.4 fantasy points over his last four games and a robust 41.9 in 17 home contests this season. He's gone over 50 fantasy points in three of his last six, including his most recent game, a 52.0-fantasy point outing against the Cavs last Sunday. With three full days of rest, the veteran point guard should be primed for a tussle with a Mavs defense that's been increasingly vulnerable to point guards lately. Dallas has given up 57.5 fantasy points to the position over the last five, a number that Bledsoe had a hand in generating, seeing as he posted 38.0 fantasy points on Jan. 5 against them. The Mavs have also given up 22.3 points per game and a 45.3 shooting percentage to the position on the season, with the last two figures ranking in the bottom half of the league.
Deron Williams, DAL at PHO ($5,600): Williams makes for a nice underpriced play, himself, on the other side of the Suns-Mavs matchup. As good as Bledsoe has been on the offensive end, his defense has been lacking, as the Suns give up the sixth-most fantasy points (56.8), most points (25.7), second-most three-pointers (2.7) and fifth-highest field-goal percentage (45.3) to point guards. Meanwhile, Williams has been a steady play outside of a couple of recent outings when he's been just under 20 fantasy points, scoring 21.0 to 42.5 fantasy points in eight of his last 10. He also touched up this same Suns squad for 33.5 fantasy points on Jan. 5, the one previous meeting between the two teams this season.
Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN vs. NO ($3,500): Dinwiddie's profile within the Nets' offense has been steadily increasing, as he's played 22 to 32 minutes in four of the last six. He's mostly been parlaying those opportunities into meaningful production for his price tag, as he's averaged 20.1 fantasy points over his last five games by clearing the 20-fantasy point mark in three of those contests. He'll draw a matchup ripe for more of the same Thursday, as the Pelicans give up the third-most fantasy points (58.9), second-most points (25.3), second-most rebounds (6.8), fifth-most assists (9.0) and most three-pointers (2.9) per game to point guards.
Anthony Davis, NO at BKN ($11,800): This suggestion is naturally made with the assumption that Davis will overcome his current questionable designation due to a hip injury and take the court. Although Davis appears to be very close to probable, Kawhi Leonard ($8,600) would be my default choice in the top tier at forward if Davis is ultimately unable to go. If he does take the floor, he'll draw one of the best matchups for power forwards, as the Nets surrender the third-most fantasy points (50.6) and third-highest shooting percentage (48.7) on the season to the position, along with the fourth-most rebounds (12.2). It's no secret that Davis' upside is sky-high, with his injury-shortened 73.5-fantasy point outing against the Knicks over just 29 minutes serving as the latest example.
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. LAL ($7,100): Aldridge's yo-yo production caused plenty of hand-wringing for fantasy owners earlier in the season, but he generally seems to have evened things out recently. The veteran has scored 36.75 to 53.25 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games, and also went for 43.0 fantasy points against this same Lakers squad in his one previous encounter with them this season. Los Angeles remains as vulnerable as ever to fours, as they're surrendering the second-most fantasy points (52.1), sixth-most points (20.7), most rebounds (13.3), most steals (1.9) and second-highest field-goal percentage (48.8) to power forwards on the season.
Tyreke Evans NO at BKN ($4,200): There's a host of potential value in the affordable tier at forward Thursday, despite the short slate, with Marcus Morris ($4,700), T.J. Warren ($4,400), David Lee ($4,100) and Denzel Valentine ($3,300) all worthy of consideration. Evans makes for a strong play in his own right, considering his minutes finally seem to be creeping up, and with that, his production has followed suit. He's hit the 20-minute mark in his last two games, tallying 20.25 and 20.0 fantasy points, respectively. He could see another slight bump in playing time Thursday and if so, he'll be matched up against a Nets squad that's been generous to both backcourt positions, giving up the most fantasy points (62.3) per game to point guards and sixth-most (43.3) to two-guards on the season.
Andre Drummond, DET at GS ($7,500): Drummond has scored 33.75 to 58.5 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 and has posted double-doubles on six occasions over that span. Meanwhile, the Warriors, who started off the season as one of the stingiest defenses against centers, have regressed significantly in that category. Golden State surrenders the most fantasy points to the position (68.5) over the last five games, along with the fifth-most rebounds (15.5) and third-most assists (3.3) on the season. In a game in which the Pistons will be forced to remain aggressive throughout, Drummond could well be in line for another 5x-7x return the likes of which he's been generating lately.
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL at PHO ($5,800): Nowitzki finally exploded for the type of performance he's proven highly capable of in the past, tallying 40.75 fantasy points against the Timberwolves on Monday. He's been at 30 and 31 minutes, respectively, over the last two games, and has scored 22.25 to Monday's 40.75 in the last four. The Suns could well facilitate more favorable production Thursday, considering they've yielded the sixth-most fantasy points (48.2) to power forwards on the season.
Zaza Pachulia, GS vs. DET ($3,400): Pachulia has averaged 23.0 fantasy points over the last five games on the strength of four outings with more than 20 fantasy points during that span. The Pistons have been better defensively this season against centers than in seasons past, but have been increasingly generous lately, having given up the third-most fantasy points (59.6) over the last 10 games. Pachulia also stands a good chance of seeing a solid amount of playing time in a game where the Warriors shouldn't have the luxury of going small too often, giving him plenty of opportunity to provide a satisfactory return on a near-minimum price.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
