This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Defense to Avoid:
Memphis Grizzlies vs. New York Knicks: At this time of the year, you have to be scared of bad teams facing good ones. That's just what we have here, as a 19th-ranked Knicks offense faces a third-ranked Grizzlies defense. What makes New York players even more difficult is the fact that they continue to rest players and play youngsters, as it makes the rotations very erratic and tough to predict. That's the last thing DFS owners want to see and those strange rotations should only get more bizarre with the Knicks playing the second half of a back-to-back set. Blowout potential is a factor too, with Memphis being a projected double-digit favorite in this game.
Offense to Use:
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets: Denver is always a great defense to stack against, as they've really fallen apart on that end of the floor. In fact, Denver ranks last in defensive efficiency and they've been even worse recently. The Pelicans are a team that leans on just three players for all their fantasy production, so that makes the picks much easier to make for fantasy. There is also talk that DeMarcus Cousins or Anthony Davis could be rested here with a back-to-back set on the horizon, which would make one of those guys extremely intriguing with all the usage headed to just one player. Not to mention, the Pelicans are averaging 116 points per game in three contests against Denver this season.
Teams on Back-to-Back Set:
First Game: Heat, Jazz, Pelicans and Spurs
Second Game: Hawks, Knicks and Timberwolves
DraftKings.com Player Recommendations
Jrue Holiday, NOP at DEN ($7,500): With the status of Davis and Cousins up in the air, that makes Holiday all the more intriguing. With one of them out, Holiday would see a major increase in usage and with both of them out, he'd be the value play of the day. Holiday has been posting some great numbers recently too, scoring at least 27 fantasy points in 11 straight games, while averaging over 35 fantasy points a game in that span. Denver is obviously a spectacular matchup too, allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards.
Ish Smith, DET at HOU ($6,200): Smith has been awesome since taking over starting point guard duties, and this price is still below where it should be. Over his last eight, Smith has scored at least 26 fantasy points six times, while averaging over 32 fantasy points per game. Houston makes for a great matchup too, as it has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing point guards across the last 10 games.
J.R. Smith, CLE vs. ATL ($4,400): Smith has been terrible for the majority of the season, but he's starting to find his form. In fact, Smith has scored at least 23 fantasy points in five straight games, averaging nearly 34 minutes per game. Many people don't realize three-pointers earn bonus points on DraftKings, but that's a huge factor for a player like Smith, with him averaging over four per game in that span.
Kevin Love, CLE vs. ATL ($7,900): Love just returned from injury and it's lowered his price to a friendly number. Over his last four, Love is averaging 43 fantasy points per game, while averaging 40 on the season. That's great value for a player south of $8,000 and it comes in a great matchup too. Usually, Love would have to face Paul Millsap, but with him resting, Love will get the fortunate task of squaring off with a weaker defender in Ersan Ilyasova
Serge Ibaka, TOR vs. MIA ($5,400): Ibaka hasn't given us much reason to use him, but this price is too cheap for his potential. Ibaka has shown the potential to be a $7,000 talent in the past, and he can do that on any given night. It's not like he's been terrible either, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. The Heat have a weak spot at power forward as well, they'll play an undersized Luke Babbitt or James Johnson for most of those minutes.
Ersan Ilyasova, ATL at CLE ($4,900): With Millsap likely sitting this game out, that means Ilyasova should get the start. When he's given that role, Ilyasova has been great, scoring at least 24 fantasy points and averaging 30 minutes in the previous eight games without Millsap. Cleveland have been terrible on defense recently as well, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency across its last 11 games.
Marc Gasol, MEM vs. NYK ($7,500): Gasol missed a few games due to a foot injury, but it lowered his price to an attractive $7,500. In his two games since returning, Gasol averaged over 39 fantasy points in limited minutes. Also, the Knicks have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Andre Drummond, DET at HOU ($7,400): Drummond has been in a minor scoring slump recently, but this matchup is too good for a player of his ability. What makes Drummond so good is his ability to rebound and defend, which is something Houston struggles with. The Rockets are actually allowing opposing centers to average 15.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 2.8 blocks per game, which all rank bottom-five in the league. Drummond should be able to thrive off Houston's weaknesses the same way he did last time out when he he dropped 43 fantasy points against them.
Clint Capela, HOU vs. DET ($5,700): Houston needs someone to match up with Drummond, and that should allow Capela to approach 30 minutes of action. That was clear in their one meeting against Detroit this season, as Capela scored 38 fantasy points in a season-high 35 minutes. In well under 30 minutes per game, Capela has surpassed 27 fantasy points in eight of his last nine contests, as he continues to do work at a cheap price.
