This article is part of our Premier League Projections series.Gameweek 30 brings with it a bunch of mismatches in the projections this week. Manchester City is expected to outscore West Brom by nearly two goals and are a good candidate for a clean sheet, but even they are outdone.
Both Southampton and Tottenham are heavy favorites based upon projections for this weekend. Southampton are expected to win by 4+ goals while Tottenham are nearly as impressive with a 3+ goal advantage expected against Burnley and Leicester City, respectively. Sure, Burnley shocked the world last weekend with their upset of Manchester City, but that was at home. The calculations are not as kind to Burnley with an away match this weekend.
Defensively, the computers really like Manchester City and Southampton to keep clean sheets. Some Southampton players get an extra boost in projections since they are expected to put up a high number of goals in their match against Burnley. This makes both Ryan Bertrand and Nathaniel Clyne intriguing options. Aaron Cresswell should also get plenty of consideration, as West Ham are the third most likely team to keep a clean sheet, and he will have a great chance to pick up an assist against Sunderland.
The projections are very bullish on Southampton and Tottenham midfielders as well. Players like Christian Eriksen, Dusan Tadic and Sadio Mane have higher goal expectancies than Eden Hazard or David Silva. Nacer Chadli also makes for a good option, but be sure that he is included in Tottenham's starting XI, as his projection is based on his inclusion. On the other end of the spectrum, Manchester United are not projected to match their offensive output from last weekend in their trip to Liverpool this weekend. This pushes players like Marouane Fellaini and Angel Di Maria down the list.
The high goal expectancy for Tottenham makes Harry Kane the No. 1 projected forward for the weekend. It's not surprising and he should be considered here in all formats. The uncertainty in the front line for Southampton has led to the both Graziano Pelle and Shane Long not being as high as you would expect. Ahead of both players are good options in Charlie Austin and Diafra Sakho, as both Queens Park Rangers and West Ham United are expected to score multiple goals. On the flip side, Romelu Lukaku and Everton are not high in the projections despite a trip to QPR, as they have struggled on the road and the computers have taken notice.
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