This article is part of our FPL Bargain Bin series.
People use data for all sorts of reasons. Data can be used to explain why something has happened. It can also be used to try to predict why something will happen. This last part is not new to anyone following sports in the past decade. American sports have pushed to use data to find leverage in any way possible. Teams will use data to find the best way to win (see: Money Ball). Casinos and their gamblers will use it to try to make money. And most importantly here, fantasy owners will use data to get a leg up on their competition.
It is safe to say that sports are experiencing a data renaissance of sorts. The best place to see this is in the number of attendees at the annual Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. When the conference started in 2007 there were 175 in attendance. Over the years that number has gradually increased, reaching over 2,000 at this past year's convention.
In the soccer world, most of the stats that get talked about are goals scored and goals allowed. This works out well for two reasons: first, these numbers are very repeatable. The last five Premier League seasons have all finished with a 2.8 goals per match average. Even after a goal drought to start last season, the streak still continues. Through the first seven gameweeks this season, the 196 total goals scored averages out to 2.8 goals per match. When numbers follow such a nice pattern, it makes using them to predict the future that much easier and more reliable.
The second reason why goals scored and goals allowed are important is because they are the stats that butter the bread in most fantasy scoring systems. Case in point: look how many players at the top of your leagues own Diego Costa as opposed to Mario Balotelli, despite the latter having more shot attempts this season. And even with that, he is not the one helping many lead their fantasy leagues so far this season.
The Bargain Bin is here to help you find the best possible investments. Look for players that have underperformed through the early part of the season like Romelu Lukaku, Emmaunel Adebayor, and Wilfried Bony. All three of these guys average roughly one goal in 40 percent of their matches. Each are currently producing at a lower rate and they will likely spend the rest of the season getting their scoring-rate closer to their career averages.
Lukaku, Adebayor, and Bony are all great adds for the rest of the season. They have not seen a big increase in cost due to their low output so far this season, which alone makes them bargains compared to where they are expected to finish the season. Also, if you don't currently own Graziano Pelle, go sign him up right now before his cost gets even more expensive than the trio of guys just mentioned. It's hard to find a better situation for a player to continue to contribute goals. That may change when Jay Rodriguez returns, but for now he should continue to find the back of the net for Southampton. Consider this your weekly reminder.
For great bargain-cost adds for the upcoming gameweek, here is this week's Bargain Bin:
Goalkeeper
Fraser Forster vs. Sunderland
Forster is part of a log-jam atop the clean sheet standings with three so far this season. Take away his first match of the season against Liverpool and he has allowed three goals in six matches. Forster has done well to enter the argument as one of the best signings of the summer through the first seven matches of the season. In Gameweek 8, Forster and Southampton host Sunderland, who have scored just two away goals so far this season, and those both came back in Gameweek 1 against West Bromwich Albion. Since earning promotion for the 2007-08 season, Sunderland have averaged just 0.89 goals per away match. Only two seasons have seen them average more than one goal per match on the road. History tells us they are a great matchup for Forster this gameweek.
Honorable Mention: Adrian at Burnley – Insert goalkeeper playing Burnley here.
Defender
Ryan Bertrand vs. Sunderland
If Forster is a good option to keep a clean sheet, then so is Bertrand. What makes Bertrand such an intriguing option is how he spends his time on the pitch. As a left-back for Southampton, he spends much of his time pressing forward rather than sitting back. This can be seen in the fact that he has six assisted shots and just eight clearances on the season. Just last week, his average position on the pitch was ahead of midfielders Victor Wanyama and Morgan Schneiderlin. Clean sheets are always clean sheets, regardless of where you are on the pitch to earn them. Any kind of offensive bonus is what you are after. Bertrand also is not much of a risk to lose you points due to a booking, having only received six yellow cards over the last four seasons (71 appearances).
Honorable Mention: Phil Jagielka vs. Aston Villa – Villa have not scored in their last three matches and only Leicester City have conceded more goals to opposing defenders this season.
Midfielder
Niko Kranjcar vs. Liverpool
It used to be dangerous to pick someone to score against Liverpool, but that has not been the case recently when they are on the road. The four Premier League seasons previous to this one, Liverpool have seemingly walked alone on defense and allowed an average of 1.5 goals per road match. This season has been even worse as they have allowed an average of 2.0 goals per road match. Allergic to the clean sheet, they travel to face Queens Park Rangers this gameweek. Waiting will be the youngster, Kranjcar, who has looked very impressive since making his debut in mid-September. In fact, since he made his debut, he has been in the top-10 for shot attempts and displayed a fine ability to finish by scoring against Stoke City. More than likely someone will score for QPR, and more than likely that will be Kranjcar.
Honorable Mention: Stewart Downing at Burnley – Insert midfielder playing Burnley. Still leads the league in assisted shots and has a red-hot forward (see below) finishing shots these days.
Forward
Diafra Sakho at Burnley
Since being added to the West Ham starting XI, Sakho has scored in every match. The run of four consecutive games with goals has been impressive after Senegalese striker broke out by scoring 20 goals last season with Ligue 2 side Metz. His ability to finish has translated nicely to the Premier League, as he has continued to score at a blistering pace. His ability to be accurate with his shots has allowed him to take advantage of some good match ups, and those good match ups continue with a trip to Burnley this weekend.
Honorable Mention: Papiss Cisse vs. Leicester City – Four goals in three matches has all but cemented his place in a front line looking for answers at Newcastle. Health is the question with Cisse, not the fact that no one allows more shots or shots on target in away matches than Leicester City.
