This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
State of the Rookies Address
The NBA draft took place a month ago, giving a lot of teams a much needed infusion of youth and talent. Immediately afterwards, every sports outlet gave their prognostications about how each rookie would fit onto their team, with predictions about who were the best and worst picks.Here on RotoWire, Ken Crites made us laugh with a DraftJournal that took us through each pick in real time with jokes that contained more than a kernel of truth.
Nick Pitner broke down the lottery picks, citing the pick of D'Angelo Russell as the one that turned the draft, and he sees Kristaps Porzingis as one of the players that could develop into a force in the NBA.
We also had Nick Whalen give us his list of draft winners and losers, estimating which teams helped themselves the most and/or didn't take best advantage of their opportunities on draft night.
But now that we've had a chance to actually see the young guys play a little bit, it's time to take an honest stab at what they'll be in the NBA.
The Las Vegas Summer League wrapped up Monday, with the San Antonio Spurs' summer league team beating the Phoenix Suns' summer league team to win the Las Vegas tournament championship. There were technicallyy three back-to-back summer leagues, beginning in Orlando, continued in Salt Lake City a few days later and finally ending in Las Vegas.
I wrote last week about some of my observations from the games that I went to in Vegas, but now that all of the leagues are over, it seems like the perfect time to give a state-of-the-rookies address for the entire lottery from a fantasy perspective.
The Lottery
Karl-Anthony Towns
Thumbnail scouting: center with size, solid athletic ability, good shooting range, good rebounding, good defensive ability, good passing ability Nbadraft.net comp: mix of Andrew Bogut and Vlade Divac
Summer exploits: Vegas League – averaged 12.8 points, 7.2 rebounds. 2.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 0.8 steals in 31 minutes per game
Team role: The Timberwolves are a young team on the come-up. They have the last three No. 1 overall picks in the draft on their roster (Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, Towns), and they have high expectations for the most recent two. They already have two solid centers in Nikola Pekovic and Gorgui Dieng, but Pekovic is often (and currently) injured while Dieng seems more suited to be a good backup. As such, I'm expecting Towns to be the starting center for the Timberwolves very early, perhaps from day one.
Estimated output: 32 minutes, 12.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 0.4 three-pointers, 47% FG, 76% FT
D'Angelo Russell
Thumbnail scouting: big lead guard, good scorer, good passer, adequate/below-average defenderNbadraft.net comp: Penny Hardaway/Brandon Roy
Summer exploits: Vegas League – averaged 11.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 5.2 turnovers in 30 minutes per game
Team role: The Lakers drafted Russell in a bold move, passing on the chance to draft Jahlil Okafor to grab the highest-regarded perimeter player on the board. The rumor at the time was that the Lakers intended to sign a big-name frontcourt free agent, but to date, they've missed out on the frontline guys. Either way, Russell is considered a huge part of both their future and their present. It seems Russell will share the guard minutes fairly evenly with Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams, with Kobe Bryant likely playing more small forward.
Estimated output: 34 minutes, 15 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 3.0 turnovers, 1.4 three-pointers, 44% FG, 80% FT
Jahlil Okafor
Thumbnail scouting: center with size and girth, good strength, good post moves, strong scorer with decent rebounding, average-at-best defensive outlook, horrendous free-throw shooterNbadraft.net comp:Brook Lopez/Al Jefferson
Summer exploits: Vegas League – averaged 15.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 blocks, 0.8 steals in 31 minutes per game
Team role: Okafor was the consensus favorite to be the No.1 overall pick for most of the NCAA season, and though he slid a couple of slots in the draft, the fact that Okafor fell was more about the perception of what's good in today's NBA than an indictment of his skills. He slots in as the likely starting center and very possibly the leading scorer for the 76ers from opening day. But keep an eye on the atrocious free throw percentage. In today's "hack-a-whoever" league, Okafor could end up shooting quite a bit of them at that low rate.
Estimated output: 32 minutes, 16.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 blocks, 50% FG, 40% FT
Kristaps Porzingis
Thumbnail scouting: extremely tall/long power forward with solid athleticism, needs to build strength, has good mid-range jumper and scoring ability inside, poor rebounder, solid ball-handling/passing, adequate defenseNbadraft.net comp:Andrea Bargnani/Pau Gasol
Summer exploits: 10.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.0 steals in 21 minutes per game
Team role: There is some mystery about Porzingis' role this year. His pick by the Knicks was met with derision from everyone from Stephen A. Smith to Carmelo Anthony, in large part because it was presumed that it would take years for Porzingis to develop. However, with his combination of extreme length, reasonable mobility/ball-handling, and a decent jumper, I think he should be able to contribute from the start even if he gets pushed around in the paint. The main question is whether the Knicks organization takes the tact of shelving the rookie and playing more vets in hopes of winning enough to appease Melo, but after seeing Porzingis in Vegas, I think he'll look better than expected in whatever minutes he receives.
Estimated output: 20 minutes, 9.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 0.9 blocks, 0.6 steals, 48% FG
Mario Hezonja
Thumbnail scouting: big wing, great athlete, good shooter, solid rebounder, decent passer, solid on-ball defender, international professional experience, more upside than provenNbadraft.net comp: Rex Chapman
Summer exploits: Two games, 13 points, 37.5% FG, one huge dunk, 14-of-24 total shot attempts from three-point range
Team role: The Magic needed a shooter in the worst way. Their starting point guard, their wings, their center…none of them can shoot, allowing defenses to pack the lane. Hezonja can shoot and shows flashes of brilliance, with a lot of inconsistency. But since the Magic have no chance to contend next season, it seems likely that they'll let him play and shoot through his mistakes. He's behind Tobias Harris on the depth chart, but a likely small ball lineup should allow Hezonja to play plenty of minutes.
Estimated output: 28 minutes, 11.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 three-pointers, 42% FG
Willie Cauley-Stein
Thumbnail scouting: center with good size, excellent athletic ability, great defense, okay rebounding, poor offense, questionable basketball IQNbadraft.net comp:Chris Andersen/Samuel Dalembert
Summer exploits: Las Vegas - five games - 11.4 points, 51% FG, 5.4 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 2.8 blocks in 22 minutes per game
Team role: Cauley-Stein is an old fashioned, rim-protecting big man that would have been an ideal defensive centerpiece a decade ago. With today's small ball movement, his utility is unclear enough that it likely dropped him at least a few draft spots from where he would have gone had he been drafted in 2005. The Kings have a dominant big man in DeMarcus Cousins, but Cousins is offensive oriented and has the ability to operate from the perimeter enough that he and Cauley-Stein could co-exist. He could look a bit like young Tyson Chandler or Nerlens Noel as a rookie.
Estimated output: 26 minutes, 8.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 51% FG, 62% FT
Emmanuel Mudiay
Thumbnail scouting: big point guard, good athlete, good quickness, questionable jumper, true point guard, good defenderNbadraft.net comp:John Wall
Summer exploits: Las Vegas - four games - 12.0 points, 38.5% FG, 3.5 assists, 5.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 31 mpg
Team role: Mudiay should be the man at point guard for the Nuggets, especially now that they've shipped Ty Lawson to Houston. Jameer Nelson and Randy Foye remain on the team as veteran presences, but the Nuggets seem destined for the lottery and a rebuild, so it makes sense for them to go to their rookie immediately to see what he's got. Plus, Mudiay went the Brandon Jennings route of foregoing college to go play professionally overseas (China), so Mudiay should be more NBA-ready than most rookies.
Estimated output: 34 minutes, 13.0 points, 6.5 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 41% FG, 1.4 steals
Stanley Johnson
Thumbnail scouting: wing with strong body, very long arms, good athleticism, and a lot of potential, versatile, plays good defense, solid rebounder, more of a slasher than a shooter Nbadraft.net comp:Kawhi Leonard/Ron Artest
Summer exploits: Orlando – five games - 16.2 points, 57.7% FG, 6.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.0 block in 27 mpg
Team role: Johnson likely begins the season backing up Marcus Morris, but Johnson has the higher upside and should earn more minutes as the season goes along. He had an excellent summer league, and the Pistons have a young team that could use more scoring from the wing. His defense may be what earns him more minutes on a Stan Van Gundy coached team.
Estimated output: 23 mpg, 11.0 points, 48% FG, 4.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks
Frank Kaminsky
Thumbnail scouting: center with good height, needs strength, lacks athleticism, excellent jumper, good ball-handler, solid post moves, ok rebounder, not great defenderNbadraft.net comp:Nenad Krstic/Sean Marks
Summer exploits: Orlando - five games - 15.2 points, 43.8% FG, 39% three-pointers, 7.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.0 blocks in 33 mpg
Team role: The Bobcats have a crowded frontcourt, which means Kaminsky will have to battle with Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams, and Spencer Hawes for minutes at power forward next to Al Jefferson. Kaminsky is a more polished scorer than any of them but will have to show that he has the athleticism to keep up on both offense and defense in a league that is increasingly going smaller and quicker.
Estimated output: 18 minutes, 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 45% FG, 1.0 three-pointers, 0.7 blocks
Justise Winslow
Thumbnail scouting: wing with good size, excellent athletic ability, good defender, good finisher at rim, strong on fast break, left-handed, struggles with consistency, poor free throw shooterNbadraft.net comp:James Harden/Wilson Chandler
Summer exploits: Orlando - four games - 11.5 points, 34.3% FG, 2.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.0 blocks in 25 mpg
Team role: Winslow was widely considered the biggest steal of the draft, going 10th to Miami when many thought he had the talent to challenge for the top four picks. The Heat retained starting wings Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng this offseason, which means that Winslow likely comes off the bench. But he has a game that would fit next to either of the Heat's starting wings, and he likely earns more minutes as the year goes along.
Estimated output: 25 minutes, 11.0 points, 43% FG, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 65% FT
Myles Turner
Thumbnail scouting: center with good size, strong defense, good jump-shooter, solid rebounder, lacks elite athleticism and quicknessNbadraft.net comp:Raef LaFrentz
Summer exploits: Orlando - three games - 18.7 points, 60.5% FG, 8.3 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 4.3 blocks in 29 minutes
Team role: The Pacers said goodbye to starting center Roy Hibbert and starting power forward David West this summer, which could open up minutes for Turner to contribute immediately. He had an excellent summer league, and Pacers coach Frank Vogel said that if Turner impressed this summer he could be a "big-minute guy" for the Pacers this season.
Estimated output: 27 minutes, 12.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 53% FG, 1.6 blocks
Trey Lyles
Thumbnail scouting: power forward with good size, excellent length, solid athleticism, solid rebounder, solid jump shot, solid upside, solid-across-board but nothing eliteNbadraft.net comp:Carlos Boozer
Summer exploits: Las Vegas - five games - 11.6 points, 31.3% FG, 6.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks in 25 minutes
Team role: Lyles will be a stretch power forward, which makes him a solid change-of-pace from the more traditional big men starters in Utah. He'll be battling Trevor Booker for minutes, and he has the higher upside, but Utah has playoff aspirations which could lead to the veteran Booker getting more minutes.
Estimated output: 18 minutes, 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 43% FG, 1.0 three-pointer, 0.7 steals
Devin Booker
Thumbnail scouting: shooting guard with good size, solid athleticism, a good jumper, good scorer, nice upside, not great at defense, passing, or ball-handling, high basketball IQNbadraft.net comp:Gordon Hayward/Klay Thompson
Summer exploits: Las Vegas - seven games - 15.3 points, 40.2% FG, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 block in 30 minutes
Team role: Booker had an excellent summer league, but with Brandon Knight returning to the Suns, Booker will likely be coming off the bench. The Suns have playoff aspirations, so they won't just turn the ball over to the rookie, but he should get some solid run off the bench, and he could claim an immediate niche role as a shooter/scorer from the backcourt with size.
Estimated output: 23 minutes, 10.0 points, 42% FG, 1.3 three-pointers, 3.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals
Cameron Payne
Thumbnail scouting: point guard with solid size, not a great athlete, solid defender, good floor general, solid jumper, solid passing ability, needs to add strength, not explosiveNbadraft.net comp:George Hill/Devin Harris
Summer exploits: N/A (fractured finger)
Team role: Payne will likely be stuck behind D.J. Augustin in his rookie season, but the Thunder drafted him to be a scorer off the bench. He's a solid floor general, and will likely spend some minutes playing with Russell Westbrook as well as running the squad when Westbrook goes to the bench, but most of his minutes will come in blowouts during garbage time.
Estimated output: 19 minutes, 7.0 points, 4.5 assists, 2.0 rebounds, 0.8 three-pointers, 0.8 steals
Keeping up with the Professor
If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the RotoWire fantasy basketball podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on www.clnsradio.com about once a month.
