Hoops Lab: NBA Playoffs Cheat Sheet 2014

NBA Playoffs Cheat Sheet 2014

People call the playoffs the REAL season because that's when things are ultimately decided. But in the NBA it's more than that…the playoffs are the real season because it is the first and only time all year you can be sure everyone is going all out on a nightly basis. No more superstars missing games to rest for the postseason (wooo-hooo!). No more having to scan the waiver wire for backups that could be potential studs when the nominal starter shuts it down for the year. No more teams sitting their entire starting lineups (like the Pacers did last week). No, in the postseason you'll be getting everyone's max effort, which will make a big difference.

But the second big difference is that, in many NBA postseason leagues, you have to choose your players based upon who you think will do the best in the postseason before the playoffs even begin. And games count, so it does little good to pick the No. 1 fantasy player in the league if he's out in the first round after five games. Instead, it might be smarter to invest in a top-20 guy who has a shot to make the Finals and play in 20-plus games. NBA postseason fantasy leagues make you, the fantasy owner, try your hand at predicting what will happen on the court with consequences if you're wrong.

The Matchups

There's a significant difference in the caliber of the average postseason team in the Western Conference vs. the Eastern Conference. Out West, the average playoff team has 55 wins, while in the East the average playoff team has 47 wins. Said another way, the average Eastern Conference team wouldn't even have made the postseason out West…or alternatively, the ninth seed in the West would have had home court advantage in the East. It's just an entirely different world. The upshot is that it is much more difficult to predict which teams will come through the West than it is in the East. This comes into play as we try to figure out which players are more likely to play more postseason games. Here are the seeds in both conferences:

East
1) Indiana
2) Miami
3) Toronto
4) Chicago
5) Washington
6) Brooklyn
7) Charlotte
8) Atlanta

West
1) San Antonio
2) Oklahoma City
3) LA Clippers
4) Houston
5) Portland
6) Golden State
7) Memphis
8) Dallas

Team Tiers

1) Miami, San Antonio
2) Indiana, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers
3) Brooklyn, Houston, Chicago, Toronto, Portland
4) Golden State, Dallas, Memphis, Washington
5) Charlotte, Atlanta

My tier system is based upon who I feel has the best odds to make it the furthest. Miami has clearly been the class of the East, especially since Indiana had such hard times down the stretch. The Nets, Bulls, Wizards and Raptors look to be tough outs in the East but a clear step down. I feel it unlikely that the Bobcats or Hawks will win a round.

Out West, San Antonio is the class of the conference. The Thunder and Clippers are the other contenders, followed by the Rockets and Blazers. The Warriors, Mavs and Griz are unlikely to win their first round matchup, but anything is possible.

The tiers reflect the number of expected games. For uniformity, let's say that tier one is expected to play 18 games, tier two 15 games, tier three 12 games, tier four nine games and tier five six games. The estimates are not meant to be exact but instead to give general expectations for the rankings.

Points system and rankings

These rankings are based on a points-based scoring approach, as opposed to rotisserie. Each points-based league has its own scoring system, but these rankings were generated from this system:

1 point scored = 0.3 fantasy point (fp)
1 assist = 0.5 fp
1 rebound = 0.4 fp
1 steal = 0.7 fp
1 block = 0.7 fp

Based on this scoring system, how the players performed this season, and the team-tier levels above, here are our postseason rankings: