PPR Rankings: QB

Allen was the top fantasy quarterback last year for the third time in four seasons (he was second in his “off” year) thanks to another campaign of high-volume passing and rushing. He was the only QB ranked top 5 in both pass and rush attempts last season, and no QB has more than Allen’s 173 combined pass/rush TDs the last four years. While he threw a four-year low 29 TD passes, Allen tied Jalen Hurts with 15 rushing scores, an NFL record for quarterbacks. A midseason shoulder injury and a change at offensive coordinator didn’t bother him much, and though he threw a career-high 18 interceptions (2nd), his efficiency dipped only slightly. He dumped it off a bit more than usual, but he still threw deep on 11.4 percent of attempts (9th), as his average target depth and YPA ranked third and 10th, respectively (even if both were three-year lows). Allen didn’t get a lot of help from his receivers, either. Stefon Diggs (eight drops) disappeared and Gabe Davis disappointed. Both are now gone, but it’s uncertain how much the receiving group improved this offseason. Third-year Khalil Shakir has 4.43 speed but seems miscast as the No. 1 WR. The team signed journeyman Curtis Samuel and drafted Keon Coleman, a second-round pick who is 6-3 but had only a 55 percent catch rate last year at FSU. Promising second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid might be the No. 2 target. But even if his passing efficiency dips -- and his rushing TDs are certain to regress -- Allen’s pass/rush volume still makes him a fantasy lock.

After ranking as a top-5 fantasy quarterback four of his five years as a starter (twice as No. 1), Mahomes fell to a career-low QB8 last season. He got little help from his wide receivers, who struggled to stretch the field and dropped a league-high 28 passes -- 12.0 percent of catchable targets. A quarter of Mahomes’ attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage and two-thirds were within 10 yards of the line, both career highs, as his average target depth dropped to a career low 6.5 and his YPA followed suit at 7.0. Mahomes also saw a predictable decrease in red-zone pass attempts after last season’s NFL-record 123, which led to 10 fewer TD passes inside the 20-yard line. Having perhaps the greatest tight end in NFL history covers a lot of ills, however, and Mahomes will again have Travis Kelce as his favorite target this season. No. 1 WR Rashee Rice, who came on strong late last year, could be suspended, but the team signed fleet-footed Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy, a first-round pick who ran a 4.21 40 at the Combine -- the fastest since at least 2003. That’s potentially a better group than Mahomes had to begin last year, which, coupled with positive regression in red-zone attempts and rushing scores (none last season), has him poised for a return to the top 5 in fantasy quarterbacks.

Hurts isn’t a necessarily a prolific passer -- 13th in TD passes last season, 14th in yards -- but the Tush Push cheat-code makes him an easy fantasy bet. After ranking third among QBs in 2022, Hurts moved up a spot to second last season thanks to 15 rushing touchdowns, an NFL record for QBs later tied by Josh Allen. Hurts led quarterbacks with 16 goal-line carries and scored 11 touchdowns on QB sneaks. The Tush Push also keeps drives alive. Hurts converted 24 of 27 QB sneaks on third-and-short and fourth down last season, giving him more fantasy opportunities. Passing wise, Hurts replicated his accuracy of the previous season and his average target depth jumped to 8.7, fourth in the league. His YPA dropped from 8.0 to 7.2 because he was a little less accurate on attempts of 20-plus yards and his receivers didn’t gobble up as many yards after the catch. In 2022, 50.8 percent of Hurts’ yards came via YAC, compared to only 44.9 percent last season. But that’s little concern for a QB who gets about 160 rushing attempts a year. The addition of running back Saquon Barkley likely will sap some goal-line carries, and center Jason Kelce’s retirement is a consideration, as he was the tip of the Tush Push spear, but penciling in Hurts for double-digit rushing scores isn’t wish-casting. And as long as his rushing production remains steady, Hurts has a shot at finishing as the top fantasy QB, even if his passing never reaches higher levels.

Jackson stayed healthy last season for the first time in three years and, perhaps not surprisingly, won his second NFL MVP award. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken gave Jackson a career-high 457 pass attempts in 16 games (he sat out a meaningless Week 18), which he combined with elite rushing production to finish fourth among fantasy QBs. His downfield rate, average target depth and accuracy were basically unchanged from the last few years, but Jackson got more help from his receivers, whose 3.7 percent drop rate and 49.0 yards-after-catch percentage were the best he’s had. That propelled his completion percentage (67.2, 8th) and YPA (8.0, 4th) to career highs, which he turned into 3,678 yards, also a career high. He only threw 24 TD passes, but a league-leading 5.6 rushing average that resulted in a QB-high 821 yards and five scores more than made up for it. His TD total was depressed a bit thanks to Gus Edwards’ 13 scores (3rd among RBs). That perhaps gives Jackson TD upside this year, as new running back Derrick Henry, even with a solid season, likely won’t match Edwards’ TD total, nor is he likely to dominate touches like he did in Tennessee. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are top-notch targets, and if Rashod Bateman, or another receiver, emerges, so much the better. He might not win the MVP again, but as long as Jackson stays healthy, he’s an easy top-5 fantasy QB.

The knock on Stroud entering last year’s draft was his supposedly sub-par processing ability. It took about two games to kill that narrative. The No. 2 pick in the draft went 191 attempts before throwing his first interception -- in Week 6 -- to set a rookie record and two weeks later sowed up Rookie of the Years honors when he passed for a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns. Stroud’s 4,108 yards -- in 15 games, mind you -- ranked third all-time for a rookie, his 23:5 TD:INT was the second-best ratio by a rookie since the merger and his 8.2 YPA was the highest of any rookie since 1970 with at least 300 attempts. The strong-armed Stroud continually pushed the ball downfield with a 9.0-yard average target depth, second in the NFL, and excelled throwing deep, completing 58.8 percent of his attempts of at least 20 yards (2nd) with eight touchdowns and no interceptions. His accuracy (22nd in on-target percentage) should improve in his second year, and the addition of Stefon Diggs gives the Texans one of the league’s better WR trios with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, whom Stroud turned into fantasy weapons last season. TE Dalton Schultz returns to give Stroud a fourth playmaking target and the trade for RB Joe Mixon will benefit the running game. At 6-3, 218, Stroud moves well in the pocket, but using his legs a bit more would make him less reliant on his arm for fantasy value (QB9 last year).