Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes’ 2025 campaign was cut short by a Week 15 ACL/LCL tear that ended a major bounce back in fantasy. After finishing 2024 as QB12, he was QB11 last year even though he played only 14 games, ranking QB4 in per-game scoring. His was a two-pronged improvement. First, Mahomes rushed for 422 yards and five touchdowns, both career highs. Second, he threw deep more often than he had in recent years -- a five-year-high 11.4 percent of his attempts went at least 20 yards downfield (8th). His average target depth rose to 7.8 yards, also a five-year high, resulting in 7.1 YPA, a three-year high. The rushing production already figured to regress this year, and that's now a near-guarantee after Mahomes injured his knee and the Chiefs signed RB Kenneth Walker. With fewer rush attempts and extra risk for missed games, Mahomes will need to stretch the field even more often (and more successfully) in order to outperform even his reduced ADP. The dink-and-dunk approach might work fine for Kansas City, but it won't add up for fantasy managers when Mahomes isn't scrambling and doesn't have an elite group of pass catchers. It's also not certain he'll be ready for Week 1, though both Mahomes and the Chiefs have made it clear that's the goal. To the surprise of many, the Chiefs haven't upgraded Mahomes' receiving weapons, instead focusing on their backfield and defense this offseason. Rashee Rice is highly effective on screens and other short passes, but he still hasn't been used much downfield -- an area where Xavier Worthy's 4.22 speed was supposed to help (still waiting). The Chiefs otherwise retained TE Travis Kelce and part-time deep threat Tyquan Thornton, ensuring that they have pass catchers with varied skillsets, if nothing else. Betting against Mahomes in real life has never been wise, but fantasy has been more of a mixed bag in recent years, even without the challenge of an ACL rehab. Read Past Outlooks