DraftKings NFL Week 7: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 7 slate includes 10 games and features the Commanders-Cowboys matchup with a 54.5-point total. We'll also see the return of Chiefs star Rashee Rice, who's back from a six-game suspension and likely to be the most popular WR this week. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and follow ownership when in doubt. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Breece Hall vs. CAR ($6,300)

The Jets remain without Braelon Allen and now they're missing star WR Garrett Wilson, which means Hall will be even more of a focal point for their struggling offense. He should see 20+ touches while being involved in the passing-game and his salary is too cheap for that role. It's worth noting that the Panthers have shut down opposing RBs in recent weeks after they held Javonte Williams to 29 rushing yards and De'Von Achane to just 16. I won't be fading Hall in cash-games but there's a good argument for it in GPPs when you consider how popular he'll be. 

• WR Rashee Rice vs. LV ($5,600)

Rice will make his long-awaited return after missing last season through injury and sitting out the first six games this year through suspension. The Chiefs have a favorable home matchup against the Raiders, and Patrick Mahomes has been desperate for a No. 1 WR. Reports suggest Rice is 100 percent healthy and set for a big role. Underpriced, he projects as one of the top values on the board and will be exceedingly popular; a lock for cash-games. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jayden Daniels at DAL ($6,900)

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QB Caleb Williams vs. NO ($5,800)

RB Jonathan Taylor at LAC ($8,800)

RB De'Von Achane at CLE ($8,100)

RB Josh Jacobs at ARI ($7,800)

RB Javonte Williams vs. WAS ($6,700)

RB Breece Hall vs. CAR ($6,300)

RB Quinshon Judkins vs. MIA ($6,000)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. NO ($5,700)

RB Kimani Vidal vs. IND ($5,500)

WR CeeDee Lamb vs. WAS ($7,500)

WR Deebo Samuel at DAL ($6,200)

WR A.J. Brown at MIN ($5,800)

WR Rashee Rice vs. LV ($5,600)

WR Chris Olave at CHI ($5,400)

TE Trey McBride vs. GB ($5,700)

TE Tyler Warren at LAC ($5,200)

TE Zach Ertz at DAL ($3,800)

TE Michael Mayer at KC ($3,500)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. NYG ($3,500)

D/ST New England Patriots at TEN ($3,400)

D/ST Miami Dolphins at CLE ($2,700)

D/ST Carolina Panthers at NYJ ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Washington Commanders (28.25) at Dallas Cowboys (26.25)

COMMANDERS

Matchups with Dallas have been the perfect recipe for fantasy points this season. The Cowboys offense has been elite while the defense ranks last in yards surrendered and EPA per play. Their games have also yielded the most total points, so it's no wonder why this WAS-DAL matchup has the highest total on the board by a considerable margin. Jayden Daniels ($6,900) will be one of the most popular QBs, and rightfully so, with a depressed salary and high projected value. We'll have to wait and see about Deebo Samuel ($6,200) and Terry McLaurin ($5,800), both of whom are listed as questionable. It's likely maintenance related with Samuel, who missed practice last week as well before playing his normal allotment of snaps. I worry about McLaurin's ceiling potential if he's limited after being out since Week 3 due to a quad injury. If either miss, Chris Moore ($3,000) would see an increased role after catching three of five targets for 46 yards and a TD against the Bears on Monday night. Zach Ertz ($3,800) might be the safest option of the bunch. Daniels' favorite red-zone target caught another touchdown last week and projects as one of the better cheap values at the position. If you'd rather target the running game, Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($6,100) continues to show promise, and we just saw Rico Dowdle run wild in the same spot. 

COWBOYS

Dak Prescott ($6,500) has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three consecutive games, and he's done it without his top weapon in CeeDee Lamb ($7,500). Now with Lamb back to full health, the Cowboys passing attack should be better than ever. With a touchdown catch in five straight games, George Pickens ($7,300) really picked up the slack in Lamb's absence. As did Jake Ferguson ($5,500), who leads TEs in catches and has a touchdown in three straight. Neither will be overly popular, with their salaries up and Lamb back. Javonte Williams ($6,700) is coming off his worst game of the season, but the usage was still there with a season-high eight targets. He projects as one of the better values at RB and makes the most sense paired with Daniels.

• Favorite Commanders Stack: QB Daniels + WR Lamb + TE Ertz
• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + TE Ertz

Indianapolis Colts (23.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (25)

COLTS

How good has the Indianapolis offense been? Through six games they've scored the most points in franchise history, and that's saying something considering how long Peyton Manning played there. Daniel Jones ($6,000) has been stellar passing, and his four rushing touchdowns have helped him to big fantasy performances. Jonathan Taylor ($8,800) has been the best running back in football and now gets a great matchup against a Chargers defense that's been cooked on the ground in recent weeks. Tyler Warren ($5,200) already looks like one the most dangerous TEs in the league. They're using him in a variety of ways and he's found the end zone in three straight. As for the WRs, Michael Pittman ($5,100) is underpriced with Josh Downs (concussion) expected out and won't be overly popular. Alec Pierce ($4,100) could also benefit and can be considered for leverage in large-field GPPs. 

CHARGERS

Justin Herbert ($6,200) has been so impressive this season, putting the Chargers on his back as they've dealt with injury after injury. Down both starting RBs, expect them to continue to throw at one of the highest rates in the league. They'll get a little help with the matchup on Sunday, as the Colts are expected to be missing top CB Charvarius Ward. Ladd McConkey ($6,000) is coming off his best game of the season with seven catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, though it came in the absence of Quentin Johnston ($5,900), who's expected back after practicing without limitations this week. Keenan Allen ($5,500) continues to see short-yardage volume but doesn't have the same upside as McConkey and Johnston. Despite pregame reports that Hassan Haskins would operate as the lead back, it was Kimani Vidal ($5,500) who took 18 carries for 124 yards against the Dolphins last week. He also added three catches and should stay involved the passing-game. 

• Favorite Colts Stack: QB Jones + RB Vidal + TE Warren
• Favorite Chargers Stack: QB Herbert + RB Taylor + WR Johnston or WR McConkey

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Rashee Rice + TE Michael Mayer

QB Jalen Hurts + WR Justin Jefferson + WR A.J. Brown

QB Jordan Love + WR Matthew Golden or WR Romeo Doubs + TE Trey McBride

QB Caleb Williams + WR Rome Odunze + WR Chris Olave or WR Rashid Shaheed

QB Justin Fields + WR Tetairoa McMillan + TE Mason Taylor

QB Spencer Rattler + RB D'Andre Swift or WR Rome Odunze + WR Chris Olave/WR Rashid Shaheed

High-Priced Heroes

• WR CeeDee Lamb vs. WAS ($7,500)

Lamb will return for the first time since suffering an ankle injury in Week 3. He said he could've played last week and will be "without limitations" against the Commanders. The matchup has a massive 54.5-point total and looks great for game stacks. On a slate that doesn't feature the likes of Puka Nacua and Ja'Marr Chase, Lamb possesses the highest ceiling at his position, and I'd like some exposure to that in tournaments. 

• RB Jonathan Taylor at LAC ($8,800)

The Chargers have been cooked by opposing RBs in back-to-back weeks: De'Von Achane took 16 carries for 128 yards last week after Jacory Croskey-Merritt took 14 attempts for 111 yards the week before. Their defense is allowing 4.9 yards per carry and Taylor has touched the ball at least 20 times in all six games. That sounds like a recipe for success for the best RB in the league, who's already hit three ceilings of at least 30 DraftKings points. 

• Honorable Mention: RB Josh Jacobs ($7,800)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB De'Von Achane at CLE ($8,100)

Fading Achane here is primarily about getting more exposure to Taylor and Jacobs, priced above and below him, respectively. The Browns have a good defense, and Achane's salary has reached a season-high despite the fact that his receiving numbers are down considerably from a year ago. It's only been six games, but he's topped 30 receiving yards just once, and that's such a big part of his value. I'd rather roster the other expensive RBs, who have more touchdown equity. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Quinshon Judkins vs. MIA ($6,000)

The Dolphins defense has been destroyed on the ground in recently: Kimani Vidal went for 124 yards last week after Rico Dowdle exploded for 206 the week before. Judkins looks be a serious talent, already impressive against the best of the NFC North. He rushed for 110 yards against the Vikings, 94 against the Packers and 82 against the Lions in successive weeks. Sunday's matchup against Miami is considerably better. It's great spot for Judkins for rush for over 100 yards and take the pressure off Dillon Gabriel. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Jaxson Dart at DEN ($5,200)

QB Spencer Rattler at CHI ($4,800)

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. GB ($4,500)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. NO ($5,700)

RB Kimani Vidal vs. IND ($5,500)

WR Romeo Doubs at ARI ($5,000)

WR Matthew Golden at ARI ($4,700)

WR Rashid Shaheed at CHI ($4,500)

WR Jerry Jeudy vs. MIA ($4,400)

TE Harold Fannin vs. MIA ($3,900)

TE Zach Ertz at DAL ($3,800)

TE Michael Mayer at KC ($3,500)

TE Mason Taylor vs. CAR ($3,400)

TE Oronde Gadsden vs. IND ($3,300)

TE Chig Okonkwo vs. NE ($3,300)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Deebo Samuel at DAL

Samuel (heel) is listed questionable and reports suggest "real uncertainty" about his chances of playing. If he misses, Chris Moore ($3,000) would look like a decent value option after being heavily involved last week. Luke McCaffrey ($4,100) would become viable as well. I'd give a bump to Zach Ertz ($3,800) too and put him clearly above Michael Mayer ($3,500) based on the matchup. 

Weather

• Windy in Cleveland. Sustained at 20-25mph with gusts up to 40mph. Possible rain too.
• Possible rain and wind in Chicago. Not as severe as the stuff in Cleveland. As always, I'm writing this on Friday morning and weather is tough to predict that far out. Check the forecasts closer to kickoff if you're targeting the passing-games in these spots.