Josh Downs

Downs lasted until pick 79 of the 2023 NFL Draft, with massive usage his final two seasons at North Carolina (195 catches for 2,364 yards and 19 TDs) balanced out by an underwhelming physical profile (4.48-second 40-yard dash time at 5-foot-9, 171 pounds). Fortunately for Downs, he's playing in an era where tough legislation of defensive penalties and trends favoring quick passes have helped many undersized receivers find success. He might just be the latest case, especially if one assumes that a mid-season knee injury held him back in the second half of his rookie campaign. Downs averaged 5.3 catches for 63.3 yards on 7.0 targets over his first eight games, before hurting his knee and playing just 26 totals snaps Weeks 9 and 10. He never missed a contest but averaged just 3.6 catches for 35.4 yards on 5.4 targets in seven games after a Week 11 bye. Downs took at least 64 percent of his snaps from the slot in all 17 games, and his 601 routes ranked 13th among wideouts (teammates Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman were eighth and 12th, respectively). Over the first eight weeks, Downs was targeted on 17.8 percent of routes and produced 1.50 yards per route run -- mediocre by starting-wideout standards but pretty good for a 22-year-old. Over the final seven weeks, Downs plunged to a 14.4 percent target rate and 0.94 YPRR. Pittman, meanwhile, was at 27.5 percent and 2.25 YPRR over the same stretch, unencumbered by quarterback Gardner Minshew's mediocrity. The Colts have huge hopes for Anthony Richardson in 2024, but even if he pans out, it won't necessarily boost the cumulative receiving production. After all, an offense with Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor both healthy would likely rank near the top of the league in rush attempts and run rate near the goal line. Downs thus faces a tricky breakout path even though he appears locked in as a starter, and he won't be helped by the fact that he's recovering from a high-ankle sprain, which could threaten his availability for Week 1. Read Past Outlooks