THURSDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+5.5), o/u 43.0
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Steelers have effectively defaulted their way to the top of the AFC North — not that they've played badly at 4-1, but that's as many wins as the rest of the division has put together. Pittsburgh has a plus-12 point differential; second place is Baltimore at minus-50. The Ravens could yet pick themselves off the mat once Lamar Jackson gets healthy, assuming the defense gets itself straightened out, and make it a race, but right now, not even the Buccaneers have a clearer path to a division crown. Aaron Rodgers seems to be enjoying not being required to carry the load every week. He has yet to attempt more than 33 passes in a game as a Steeler, and his 68.8 percent completion rate would be his highest mark since 2021 and the third highest of his career. A 10:3 TD:INT in five games isn't too shabby either. DK Metcalf has scored in four consecutive games and has been his only reliable weapon, though that's generally how Rodgers likes it anyway. Jaylen Warren's still looking for a breakout game as the RB1, and the two-headed monster at tight end is suddenly a three-headed Cerberus with Darnell Washington starting to horn in on Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth's action. While the offense sorts itself out, though, the defense is doing Pittsburgh things, tied for second in sacks and tied for third in takeaways — those are volume stats, mind you, and the Steelers have already had their bye.
Well, Zac Taylor hasn't been fired yet, so I guess trading for Joe Flacco was a success. The Bengals still haven't won a game since Joe Burrow got hurt, dropping four straight by an average score of about 35-14, but last week's 27-18 result against the Packers was a marginally more competitive loss. Ja'Marr Chase has been getting his regardless of who's been under center (16-204-3 on 22 targets the last two games), but Tee Higgins saw a season-high eight targets from Flacco — though it's hard to imagine this struggling offense supporting two impact wideouts every week. Samaje Perine has started to cut into Chase Brown's workload in the backfield, and it might not be long before rookie Tahj Brooks gets a real look, but nobody will have much luck running the ball behind this O-line. The defense is still the team's biggest issue, though. Cincy is 29th in yards per play allowed, 30th in points per game allowed, 29th in third-down efficiency against, a tied for 30th in red-zone efficiency against. Trading for a 40-year-old QB isn't going to solve those problems.
Key Info
PIT injury report: WR Calvin Austn (out, shoulder), S DeShon Elliott (questionable, personal)
CIN injury report: QB Joe Burrow (IR, toe), TE Mike Gesicki (IR, pectoral), RG Lucas Patrick (IR, calf), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (questionable, hip)
Strong lean: RB Jaylen Warren (CIN 30th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-27th in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight lean: WR Ja'Marr Chase (PIT 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Scotty Miller (CIN fifth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: WR Tee Higgins (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR2)
NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 24-24 (23.7-23.7, to be exact), average margin of victory 13 points. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single score. PIT has won three straight meetings at Paycor Stadium
The Scoop: Warren pops for 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Metcalf. Brown leads the CIN backfield with 40 yards. Flacco throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Noah Fant while getting sacked four times and picked off twice. Steelers 24-13
Last week's record: 10-5, 8-7 ATS, 9-6 o/u
2025 record: 60-32-1 (.652), 49-42-2 ATS (.538), 39-53-1 o/u (.424)
