Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

31-Year-Old OutfielderOF
New York Yankees
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Despite missing 56 games due to hip and toe injuries, Judge cracked 37 homers in 2023, finishing fourth in the American League. The stars aligned in his historic 2022 MVP season and nobody should expect that level of production again, particularly in the stolen-base department (his SB total fell from 16 to just three last season). That being said, Judge is arguably the most prolific power hitter in baseball, and he chased pitches outside the strike zone less than ever last season (career-low 22.5 O-Swing%). He returned to hit .245/.408/.557 with 18 homers and 53 walks in his final 57 games, and manager Aaron Boone said in August that Judge would not need offseason surgery on his right big toe. There is no questioning his hitting ability, though it's fair to question whether the hulking outfielder/DH can hold up to the rigors of a full MLB season as he approaches age 32. Judge has reached 150 games played only twice in his career. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#13
ADP
$Signed a nine-year, $360 million contract with the Yankees in December of 2022.
Could play first base in emergency
OFNew York Yankees
February 23, 2024
Judge worked out at first base over the offseason and hasn't ruled out playing there this season if he's needed, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Judge has worked out at first base before and played the position during his freshman season at Fresno State, so it's not totally foreign to him. That said, it seems like it would only happen in an emergency situation, with Anthony Rizzo set as the starter and DJ LeMahieu offering depth at the position. For fantasy purposes, Judge picking up first base eligibility would appear to be highly unlikely.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
84
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
18
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+1%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+4%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+13%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+12%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left 1.009 427 74 37 83 2 .285 .389 .620
Since 2021vs Right 1.019 1356 227 101 221 23 .293 .406 .614
2023vs Left 1.056 74 14 8 16 0 .274 .378 .677
2023vs Right 1.011 384 65 29 59 3 .266 .411 .600
2022vs Left 1.010 165 31 14 35 1 .274 .388 .622
2022vs Right 1.142 527 102 48 96 15 .322 .436 .706
2021vs Left .990 188 29 15 32 1 .298 .394 .596
2021vs Right .886 445 60 24 66 5 .283 .364 .522
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+15%
OPS on Road
2023
 
 
+17%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+6%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+26%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .948 885 141 62 138 10 .276 .383 .565
Since 2021Away 1.086 898 160 76 166 15 .307 .420 .666
2023Home .938 226 36 17 37 1 .249 .376 .562
2023Away 1.100 232 43 20 38 2 .286 .435 .665
2022Home 1.081 348 65 30 60 7 .308 .417 .664
2022Away 1.141 344 68 32 71 9 .313 .433 .708
2021Home .810 311 40 15 41 2 .259 .350 .459
2021Away 1.019 322 49 24 57 4 .314 .394 .625
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Aaron Judge compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.68
 
BB Rate
19.2%
 
K Rate
28.4%
 
BABIP
.300
 
ISO
.346
 
AVG
.267
 
OBP
.406
 
SLG
.613
 
OPS
1.019
 
wOBA
.429
 
Exit Velocity
97.6 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
54.2%
 
Barrels/PA
14.4%
 
Expected BA
.289
 
Expected SLG
.712
 
Sprint Speed
21.7 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
30.4%
 
Line Drive %
19.6%
 
Fly Ball %
50.0%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Judge See More
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42 days ago
The RotoWire Roundtable crew shares their latest rankings, with changes as high as the early first round.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Judge and the Yankees were unable to agree on a contract extension prior to the 2022 campaign, and the slugger delivered a recording-breaking season in his final year before free agency. The outfielder, who will turn 31 years old in April, set an American League record with 62 home runs and also totaled 111 walks, 131 RBI and 133 runs scored with a .311/.425/.686 slash line. The thing that really vaulted him into rarefied fantasy air was a surprise 16 steals on 19 attempts after previously having a career-high nine steals back in 2017. He endured his share of injury issues in the past but played in a career-high 157 games and has missed only 19 contests across the past two seasons. Judge is unlikely to deliver a repeat performance in 2023, though he should remain one of the most productive hitters in MLB after landing a huge nine-year deal to stay in pinstripes. If he remains aggressive on the bases and stays relatively healthy, Judge should return first-round fantasy value even with regression across the board.
Judge set a high bar for himself in 2017 with 52 homers, and mostly likely, every subsequent season will be a disappointment when compared to that year. The fact is that the league adjusted to him and he's never going to be able to repeat without major adjustments himself. The biggest change is that pitchers began throwing their non-fastballs for strikes against him and he's not punishing them. The percentage of fastballs against him dropped from 51% in 2017 to just 45% last year. He saw almost as many sliders as four-seamers in 2021 (697 vs 757), and he hit 18 homers off the fastballs and just five off the sliders. Since pitchers are filling the zone, his walk rate has dropped from 18.7% to 11.8%. The strikeout rate dropped this past season to a career-low 25%, but unless he makes further adjustments entering his age-30 season, he's likely capped at around 40 homers and a .275 average.
Judge looked like an MVP candidate through the first few weeks of the abbreviated 2020 campaign, slashing .290/.343/.758 with nine home runs and 20 RBI over his first 17 games. However, he missed significant time for the third straight season when a calf strain forced him to the bench for all but one of the following 31 contests. Upon his return, Judge struggled to find a rhythm at the plate, hitting a meager .194 with no homers over 43 PA to end the regular season. It stands to reason that the injury was largely responsible for Judge's disappointing overall 11.6% barrel rate, 92.2 mph average exit velocity and 40.6% hard-hit rate (all precipitous drops from his career norms), and it's wise to expect those numbers to rise over a larger sample this season. Nonetheless, fantasy managers considering an investment in Judge must balance his massive power potential with his history of missed time.
For the second consecutive season, Judge's campaign was interrupted by injury as he missed two months with an oblique strain suffered in mid-April. When he was on the field, however, Judge was again one of the most fearsome sluggers in baseball, topping the league in average exit velocity (95.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (53.8%) while ranking sixth in barrel rate (10.7 Brls/PA). Though Judge has yet to repeat the elite 10.4 AB/HR he posted as a rookie in 2017, his 14.6 AB/HR and 54 total long balls over the last two injury-plagued seasons tease at the power numbers he is capable of producing. In addition, Judge's ability to smoke the ball off the bat has produced a healthy .273 career batting average despite a woeful 31.6 K%. In his prime and entrenched in New York's potent offense, Judge should rank among the leaders in homers and run production in 2020 if he is able to stay healthy for the entire season.
Regression was probably inevitable for Judge after he took the baseball world by storm as a rookie, but his 25-home run decline was harsher than most anticipated. The fractured wrist that sidelined Judge for nearly two months bears much of the blame, as his batted-ball profile otherwise revealed the outfielder performed like one of the game's top sluggers. For the second straight year, Judge lit up the Statcast leaderboards, ranking first in average exit velocity (94.8 mph) and hard-hit percentage (53.8%) and 20th in barrel rate (8.6 Brls/PA). Judge's thumping ways should regularly translate to high BABIPs, thereby giving him more batting-average stability than others who strike out as often as he does (career 31.6 K%). Further wrist issues would obviously affect Judge's outlook, but the fact that he ended 2018 on the field and didn't require a follow-up procedure over the winter indicates the Yankees are confident he'll anchor a talented lineup in 2019.
After a disappointing debut in 2016, Judge exploded for 52 home runs, finishing second in the AL MVP voting and arguably becoming the new face of baseball. He ranked first or second in most traditional hitting categories and modern technology confirmed what was obvious to the naked eye: Judge crushed the ball. He finished first in the majors in barrel rate (12.8 Brls/PA) and second among qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (45.3 percent). While Judge still struck out at a relatively high clip (30.7 percent), he made significant improvement in that regard from the previous season and trailed only Joey Votto in walk rate (18.7 percent). While his batting average could fade as he sees a heavier dose of breaking pitches, we've already seen enough to safely say Judge will be at least a three-category stud for many years to come. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in November, but is expected to be a full go for the start of spring training.
Long viewed as one of the top prospects in the Yankees system, Judge got a chance to make his major league debut last season. Following the trade deadline departure of Carlos Beltran, the 6-foot-7, 275-pound Judge was immediately inserted into an everyday role in right field. After smacking 19 home runs in the minors, Judge got off to a terrific start in the majors with homers in his first two games while hitting over .300 in his first week, but a lot of worrisome issues cropped up after that. The 24-year-old struck out at an alarming 44.2 percent clip and ended up hitting just .179 before a Grade 2 oblique strain ended his season. While his elite raw power was never questioned in the minors, he had some seasons where he posted strikeout rates above 25 percent, and the worry was always that big league pitching would be able to exploit his size, resulting in low batting averages. That appears to be exactly what happened last season. Winning the starting right field job is all but guaranteed, and Judge could be a solid source of power, but the questions about his hit tool make this an extremely volatile profile.
Viewed as the top prospect in the Yankees' system, Judge will likely get his chance to make his big league debut in 2016. The 23-year-old has great raw power, helped in large part by his 6-foot-7, 230 pound frame, which he flashed en route to hitting 20 home runs across both Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. Though his average dipped after the promotion, Judge projects to be more than just a pure power hitter. Barring any offseason trades, the Yankees' outfield appears to be totally accounted for, with Carlos Beltran occupying Judge's natural right field spot for the 2016 season and Aaron Hicks available to spell him. In order to give Judge everyday playing time, the Yankees will likely have him spend the first half (if not the entire season) back at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
At 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, Judge was understandably labeled a high-risk/high-reward proposition when he was drafted by the Yankees with the 32nd pick in the 2013 draft. Now, following an excellent first full season as a professional, the idea of Judge actualizing his immense potential is starting to look a lot more realistic. He has 80 raw power, which one might expect out of such a herculean specimen. But, somewhat surprisingly, he also had no problem hitting for average and getting on base in 131 games between Low-A and High-A. He split his time right down the middle between the two stops, and combined to post a .308/.419/.486 slash line with 17 home runs. There’s no doubt that more power will come in time, and by showing good on-base skills in 2014 he has earned the label of best position player prospect in the Yankees’ system. After capping his impressive debut season by putting on a show in the Arizona Fall League, few prospects will enter 2015 with more helium.
Judge, one of the Yankees' first-round picks in the 2013 draft, is a massive human being at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds, but he has a good arm and moves around well enough that he should stick in the outfield. He has a short swing that hasn't yet generated much in-game power, so it seems likely that the Yankees will want to work with him on his mechanics to unleash some of that power potential. He'll make his pro debut in 2014, and may be brought along relatively slowly for an older bat drafted out of college.
More Fantasy News
Toe will require maintenence
OFNew York Yankees
February 20, 2024
Judge said Tuesday that his right big toe injury will likely require "constant maintenance" for the remainder of his career, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
ANALYSIS
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In line to bat third
OFNew York Yankees
January 19, 2024
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said in an interview Friday with the "Foul Territory" podcast that Judge will "probably" bat third this season.
ANALYSIS
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Toe injury 'resolved'
OFNew York Yankees
December 7, 2023
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Thursday that Judge's toe injury is "a resolved issue," Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could be everyday center fielder
OFNew York Yankees
December 6, 2023
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Judge being the team's everyday center fielder in 2024 is "in play," Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting out finale
OFNew York Yankees
October 1, 2023
Judge is not in Sunday's lineup against the Royals.
ANALYSIS
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