Leaderboard of the Week: A Barrel of Breakouts

A few weeks back, I noticed that some of the 2025 breakouts came from the Barrel per Plate Appearance leaderboard. Seeing a good player on this list should not be a surprise. Batters who make a lot of hard contact should be successful. This week, I'm going to focus on some of the lesser names.

To cull down the list, I removed any player drafted in the first 11 rounds of the too-early Meatball draft. The goal was not to point out superstars like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, but find potential sleepers.

In my article, I found the cutoff of 7.2% Barrels/PA to be the level for a breakout hitter. Additionally, I included the expected home runs per barrel (52.6% HR/Barrel) to show who might have been lucky or unlucky with their home runs. 

Here are the 53 guys who meet both conditions.

And here are some players and groups of players I found interesting. 

Constantly Hurt: Giancarlo Stanton, Yoan Moncada, and Tyler O'Neill

When healthy, these three can take over a game, but that rarely happens. Some other players could be added to this group, but these three have consistently displayed the inability to stay off the IL. 

Pirates: Alexander Canario and Henry Davis

As a team, the Pirates struggled with a just 38% HR/Barrel%. The Cardinals were the next lowest at 45% HR/Barrel. While the Pirates aren't the most talented team, they haven't struggled with hitting home runs in the past, once they barreled up the ball.

Should we just expect regression for the entire team? I'm not sure what to do. 

Strong-side platoon bats: Will Benson, Rowdy Tellez, Mickey Moniak, Brandon Lowe, Wilyer Abreu, Kody Clemens, Jesus Sanchez, Edouard Julien, Jake Bauers, Kyle Manzardo

I tried to keep this list to those who were platooned last season and not project future platoon considerations. I'm going to try my hardest to pass on this group until most of the regulars are drafted. 

Short-side platoon bats: Romy Gonzalez, Rob Refsnyder, Randal Grichuk

I'm staying away from these guys, except maybe in the last few rounds of a 15-team, 50-round draft champions league.

Catchers: Logan O'Hoppe, Tyler Stephenson, Luis Torrens, Francisco Alvarez, Ivan Herrera (may qualify depending on league rules with 14 C, 89 DH), Sean Murphy

I've always considered the replacement-level catcher to be a guy who bats about .220 with 12 HR. Everyone in this group could get to 20 HR. In draft-and-hold leagues, the Alvarez-Torrens pairing is enticing since both have shown steady power.

Thoughts on the rest (a.k.a. my target list)

Daulton Varsho: The 29-year-old has struggled to stay healthy, but seemed ready to go with 20 HR in 271 PA once he was mostly healthy. He posted a 89.9 mph AEV (a career high) along with several other elite hard-hit metrics. He is selling out for power with a career-low 72% Contact% (28% K%) and just two SB last season. 

Dominic Canzone: The 28-year-old moved in and out of a strong-side platoon role, but he posted a .712 OPS against lefties this year (league average is .719 OPS). He hit .300/.358/.481 this past season with 11 HR in 268 PA. If he could find a full-time role, he could post a 25-HR, five-steal, .265 AVG kind of season. Those are almost the exact numbers of Jorge Polanco. 

Jorge Polanco: And onto Polanco. I've stayed away in the past because he never seemed healthy, but I might be buying in now. He posted a career-high average exit velocity (90.8 mph), his best Contact% in four years (78%), and 524 PA, also a four-year high. Even though he'll be 32 years old next season, he could be a great 'buy-high'. 

Colson Montgomery: While a solid source of power, Montgomery's 21 HR off 25 Barrels will likely regress. All he has are those home runs with zero SB and a .239 AVG (29% K rate). I think 30 HR is a good expectation for next season.

Brett Baty: Baty's stock jumped as the season drew to an end. He was fighting for playing time with Mark Vientos and Jeff McNeil early, with Baty sitting against lefties, but he was benched not because he struggled against them (.678 OPS vs LHP in '25), but because the other options were seen as better. Baty started getting starts against lefties at the season's end. Additionally, the team plans to adopt a more defensive approach next season, and Vientos is a poor defender.

Otto Kemp: The Phillies are going through several roster changes, so Kemp might be able to work himself into more playing time. While he struggled to make contact in the majors (31% K rate), he had a combined 24 HR and 15 SB between the minors and majors in 561 PA. 

Brooks Baldwin: The 24-year-old took a major step forward with a three mph jump in average exit velocity (87.4 mph to 90.4 mph). At the same time he lowered his launch angle from 26 degrees to 15 degrees. At 26 degrees, every ball in play is potentially an easy-to-catch flyout. Additionally, he got better as the season went with a 24% K rate and .769 OPS in the second half. Baldwin has 25 HR/10 SB upside.

Ryan Mountcastle: He ended the season with 28 Barrels and just seven HR. He is just one of three players (Ty France and Romy Gonzalez) with at least 28 barrels but fewer than 10 HR. There is a good chance Mountcastle is on a new team in 2026, so he's a solid buy-low.

Davis Schneider: He dropped his strikeouts (32% to 26%) while hitting the ball harder (88.6 mph AEV to 90.8 mph). He was used mainly against lefties even though he hit righties better (.708 OPS vs .915 OPS). The biggest thing holding him back was that the Blue Jays were loaded around the infield with Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger and Bo Bichette, but Bichette could be in a different uniform in 2026.