Brandon Lowe

29-Year-Old Second Baseman2B

Tampa Bay Rays

10-Day IL

Injury Oblique

Est. Return 4/19/2024

2024 Stats

AVG

.185

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Lowe's 2021 season happened, but boy howdy does it look like quite the outlier against his other seasons. That season, Lowe showed what he is capable of when his body can remain healthy, something it has not done since that season. 2022 was derailed by troubles in his back, and those resurfaced in 2023, albeit in a different form. Those struggled led to him hitting .209/.307/.401 in the first half of the season with 9 homers and 31 RBIs before the rest at the break was just was the doctor ordered. Lowe went on to hit .253/.348/.484 in the second half with 12 homers and 37 RBIs before a foul ball fractured his knee cap and ended his season. Beyond his health limitations, Lowe still struggles to hit lefties (1 HR, .170) and continues to strike out below the league average rate. He has the ability to hit 30 homers, but given we have seen just one full season from him as he enters his age 29 season, this is not a player you should be reaching for in drafts. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#265

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'10"

Weight 185

DOB 7/6/1994

Born Suffolk, VA

College Maryland

Drafted 3rd Rd 2015 TB

Lands on IL with oblique strain

2BTampa Bay Rays

Oblique

April 12, 2024

The Rays placed Lowe on the 10-day injured list Friday with a right oblique strain, Ryan Bass of Bally Sports Sun reports.

ANALYSIS
The grade of the strain hasn't yet been revealed, so it's unclear at this point how much time Lowe might miss. Curtis Mead has been filling for him at second base and should continue to do so most days. The Rays also recalled Niko Goodrum from Triple-A Durham to take Lowe's spot on the 26-man active roster, and he'll be an option at the keystone as well.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+18%

OPS vs RHP

2024

-100%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+59%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+19%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.637	112	12	4	17	1	.210	.277	.360
Since 2022vs Right	.753	620	80	26	80	7	.228	.326	.427
2024vs Left	.000	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
2024vs Right	.622	29	3	1	4	0	.192	.276	.346
2023vs Left	.512	63	7	1	8	0	.170	.286	.226
2023vs Right	.814	373	51	20	60	7	.241	.335	.478
2022vs Left	.793	48	5	3	9	1	.261	.271	.522
2022vs Right	.666	218	26	5	16	0	.212	.317	.349
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+15%

OPS at Home

2024

+25%

OPS at Home

2023

+8%

OPS at Home

2022

+30%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.787	355	46	15	55	5	.247	.335	.452
Since 2022Away	.685	377	46	15	42	3	.205	.302	.382
2024Home	.653	18	1	1	4	0	.188	.278	.375
2024Away	.523	12	2	0	0	0	.182	.250	.273
2023Home	.800	212	27	10	40	4	.242	.349	.451
2023Away	.744	224	31	11	28	3	.221	.308	.436
2022Home	.785	125	18	4	11	1	.263	.320	.465
2022Away	.604	141	13	4	14	0	.182	.298	.306
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Stat Review

How does Brandon Lowe compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.29

BB Rate

6.7%

K Rate

23.3%

BABIP

.211

ISO

.148

AVG

.185

OBP

.267

SLG

.333

OPS

.600

wOBA

.271

Exit Velocity

90.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

35.0%

Barrels/PA

6.7%

Expected BA

.242

Expected SLG

.457

Sprint Speed

Ground Ball %

40.0%

Line Drive %

15.0%

Fly Ball %

45.0%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Brandon Lowe Prospect Ranking History

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Additional Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Chance to be moved?

2BTampa Bay Rays

October 22, 2023

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed Lowe, who closed the season on the injured list with a fractured kneecap, as a potential trade piece for the Rays if they look to shed some salary during the offseason.

ANALYSIS
Lowe inked a six-year, $24 million extension with the Rays in 2019 and is set to earn $8.75 million in 2024. The deal also includes club options for 2025 and 2026 worth a combined $22 million. The 29-year-old delivered an .863 OPS as an everyday player in 2021, but he struggled to a .691 OPS last year while being limited to 65 contests due to back issues. Lowe regained some of that stronger form in 2023 with 21 homers and a .231/.328/.443 slash line, but he played in just 109 games due to back and knee injuries. The injury issues would certainly affect his value on the trade market, but Lowe is still likely to be coveted by plenty of teams if made available by Tampa Bay.

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Lowe took hold of an everyday role in 2021 and delivered an .863 OPS and 39 homers in 149 games, but a nagging back injury limited him to only 65 games last year. He batted .221 but finished 2022 with a slightly-above-average 104 wRC+, and he also cut his strikeout rate nearly five percentage points to 22.9 percent. It's unclear exactly how much the back injury affected the second baseman's production, and it's worth keeping an eye on whether the issue resurfaces again during 2023. He fared better against left-handed pitching with a .793 OPS, though that success may not indicate much since it covered only 48 plate appearances. A return to his 2021 form shouldn't be expected, but Lowe should be in store for a bounceback season in 2023.

Lowe was finally given his chance to function as an everyday player, and he rewarded the club's faith in him by having a career year at the plate despite his flaws. He fell just shy of joining Marcus Semien last season, and historically Rogers Hornsby and Ryne Sandberg, as the only second basemen to ever hit 40 or more homers while scoring 100 runs and driving in 100. Around the excellent run production, Lowe still has too much swing-and-miss in his game (bottom seventh percentile), but the strikeout rate has improved over the ugly rate from the 2019 season. The full-time playing time also meant increased exposure to lefties, and while he did hit 10 of his 39 homers against lefties, his .198 average and 34.0% strikeout rate against them in 188 plate appearances explain why his batting average tumbled from the prior two seasons. His 2022 should be another above-average offense campaign, but it will be tough for him to hit even .250 against southpaws.

Lowe is 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds, yet continues to barrel the baseball like few others in the game. Lowe hits what the local radio team calls "Helium Balls" because they tend to just stay in the air longer than most flyballs until they find the seats. For the first six weeks of the 2020 season, Lowe was a leading candidate for the AL MVP as he had a .273/.371/.612 slash line with 10 homers, 26 runs, and 27 RBI heading into September. He cooled off a bit with a .264/.345/.458 line the rest of the way, but then was downright abysmal in the playoffs, hitting .118/.183/.276 around the two-homer game in the World Series with a 34% strikeout rate. He hit .300 with six homers against lefties in 2020, somewhat quieting the concerns of him being platooned, but the postseason slump is definitely concerning. The strikeouts limit his batting average upside, but he does accept his walks and hits with power to all fields.

Lowe inked a six-year, $24 million extension last March, ensuring he would hold a vital role for the Rays right away after a strong 43-game cameo in 2018. Injuries effectively kept Lowe out of the mix after the All-Star break, but his big first half still made his season an unequivocal success. Initially tabbed for a utility role, the 25-year-old settled at the keystone and was among the top fantasy options at the position when healthy, slashing .276/.339/.523 with 16 homers and five steals before the break. If injuries hadn't intervened, Lowe may have been headed for a drop-off, as his 33.9 K% and .381 BABIP loomed as major signs that the .276 average would fall. Lowe's ability to rack up counting stats appears more repeatable based on his Statcast metrics, so as long as fantasy managers can deal with a sub-.250 average and the Rays benching him versus lefties, there's still value to be had.

It's difficult to make heads or tails of Lowe. He totaled 28 homers and posted wRC+ marks of 156 and 178 at Double-A and Triple-A, respectively, last season. Lowe was also 13% better than league average, offensively, in his first foray into the major leagues. However, he was relatively old for those levels in the minors and had a 25.7% strikeout rate in the big leagues. Statcast suggests he was a .220-ish hitter. His 77.4% zone-contact rate was way below league average and is a red flag looking ahead to 2019 and beyond. There is some speed here to go along with the pop, and Lowe has shown that he will accept his walks. After the Rays traded Mallex Smith, general manager Erik Neander said publicly that Lowe will be in the mix for a spot on the Opening Day roster, but a starting spot seems unlikely barring multiple injuries in front of him on the depth chart.

More Fantasy News

Sent for MRI on oblique

2BTampa Bay Rays

Oblique

April 10, 2024

Lowe will undergo an MRI on his right oblique and won't be available for Wednesday's game against the Angels, Tricia Whitaker of Bally Sports Sun reports.