Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Baltimore Orioles
Day-To-Day
Injury Undisclosed
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Mountcastle was batting .227/.264/.431 when he was put on the IL in early June with vertigo. He had been in a bad slump in the weeks leading up to illness but it's unclear if they were related. After returning a month later, Mountcastle went on a roll, posting a .326/.407/.492 line the rest of the way. He missed some time in September with a shoulder injury but was able to return for the playoffs. Taken as a whole, it appears Mountcastle improved across the board compared to the previous season, but his batted ball metrics, and expected average and slug were nearly identical both seasons. To his credit, Mountcastle fanned at the lowest rate since his rookie year, which was the pandemic season. Mountcastle undershot his expected homers for the second straight season, which could be due to the renovations in Camden Yards, or a hint there is latent pop. Mountcastle's cost of acquisition should be reasonable, though there are durability concerns since he's never played more than 145 games. Even so, there is a draftable floor, with a chance 2021 is not Mountcastle's apex season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#234
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.14 million contract with the Orioles in January of 2024.
Scratched from lineup
1BBaltimore Orioles
Undisclosed
February 29, 2024
Mountcastle was scratched from the Orioles' Grapefruit League lineup for Thursday's game versus the Pirates, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The reasoning for the scratch is unclear at the moment, but the O's should offer some clarity soon. Tyler Nevin will sub in for Mountcastle at first base.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
12
28
16
6
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
16
21
8
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+19%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
+64%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+7%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+9%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .861 524 68 30 86 6 .280 .336 .525
Since 2021vs Right .724 1141 135 43 156 5 .247 .302 .421
2023vs Left 1.052 161 27 12 35 1 .338 .398 .655
2023vs Right .640 309 37 6 33 2 .235 .291 .349
2022vs Left .693 154 14 5 15 2 .239 .299 .394
2022vs Right .741 455 48 17 70 2 .254 .308 .433
2021vs Left .842 209 27 13 36 3 .266 .316 .527
2021vs Right .770 377 50 20 53 1 .249 .305 .465
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+3%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+22%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .806 822 95 42 130 5 .271 .321 .485
Since 2021Away .728 843 108 31 112 6 .244 .305 .423
2023Home .767 218 24 9 32 1 .262 .321 .446
2023Away .789 252 40 9 36 2 .276 .333 .456
2022Home .767 303 29 11 49 2 .274 .327 .440
2022Away .691 306 33 11 36 2 .227 .284 .406
2021Home .871 301 42 22 49 2 .274 .316 .555
2021Away .713 285 35 11 40 2 .233 .302 .411
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Stat Review
How does Ryan Mountcastle compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.35
 
BB Rate
7.9%
 
K Rate
22.8%
 
BABIP
.315
 
ISO
.182
 
AVG
.270
 
OBP
.328
 
SLG
.452
 
OPS
.779
 
wOBA
.339
 
Exit Velocity
91.4 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
32.9%
 
Barrels/PA
8.3%
 
Expected BA
.273
 
Expected SLG
.503
 
Sprint Speed
23.2 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
43.7%
 
Line Drive %
19.5%
 
Fly Ball %
36.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Ryan Mountcastle See More
Spring Training Job Battles: AL East
9 days ago
Ryan Boyer breaks down every job that's up for grabs in the AL East this spring, including a pair of spots in the Orioles' infield.
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9 days ago
When someone drafts your favorite target several rounds before his ADP, who should you turn to as a backup plan? Jason Collette shares his Plan B at every offensive position.
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22 days ago
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Farm Futures: Rookie Hitter Rankings 2.0
22 days ago
James Anderson releases volume 2.0 of his rookie hitter tiers for 2024 fantasy value only, in which Reds third baseman Noelvi Marte remains in the top spot.
The Z Files: Projectability of Hitter Strikeout Rates
27 days ago
Todd Zola look at how players like Adolis Garcia made significant improvements in their strikeout rates, and whether any lessons can be drawn that could help project 2024 breakouts.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Mountcastle's numbers don't express it, but he sported better skills than the previous season, but was shortchanged between six and nine homers, depending on which xHR mark is trusted. Looking at his spray chart, the discrepancy is more than the new Camden Yards dimensions. Mountcastle increased his fly ball exit velocity 1-mph, adding around four feet to his average fly ball distance. Yet, his HR/FB slipped from 20.4% to a snake bit 13.3%. Mountcastle chased less while being more aggressive in the zone, resulting in shaving a couple of points of his strikeout rate. The narrative will be moving the left field fences back in Camden Yards cost him power, but he was also unlucky in the home run department. This presents a buying opportunity as many will over adjust Mountcastle's new power baseline. He's still in the upswing of his career, hitting in the meat of an improving lineup.
After a surprise debut year in 2020 when he hit for a .333 average, the batting average stepped back some for Mountcastle in 2021, but fortunately, that was not the case with his power. After a slow start (.628 OPS on June 1), he heated up over the last four months (.878 OPS with 28 of his 33 homers). He gave up some contact for more power (.159 to .232 ISO, 87 to 89 mph avgEV). It's tough to gauge his talent going forward since his limited production keeps bouncing around (e.g. 1.183 OPS in Aug. with a .710 OPS in Sept.). He should not be a drag in batting average and provide 30 or so home runs with a half dozen steals. It's not game-changing talent, but Mountcastle should be considered a nice roster fill-in especially since he's qualified at first base and outfield.
Mountcastle is not the answer for the Orioles, but he is pretty clearly one of the best players on the current roster. Among Baltimore position players in 2020, Mountcastle finished third in fWAR behind Jose Iglesias (who's no longer with the team) and Anthony Santander. He achieved that finish despite not debuting until Aug. 21. His success over 35 games was fueled by a .398 BABIP, a number not supported in any way by his batted-ball metrics. In fact, Mountcastle's xBA was nearly 70 points below his actual BA, the third-greatest differential between expected and actual average. It's encouraging that he crushed same-handed pitching; hopefully the landing will be fine with some gains against lefties. Mountcastle will have dual eligibility in many leagues as he made 10 appearances at first base in addition to 25 in the outfield. The fact he plays at Camden Yards helps the appeal of his compiler profile.
Mountcastle is a prime example of why team context matters when valuing prospects for dynasty leagues. On any contending team or National League team with solid depth, he wouldn't be assured an audition as a regular. However, Baltimore gave Dwight Smith (-0.8 fWAR) almost 400 plate appearances last year, so Mountcastle should be given regular playing time for several years despite his obvious deficiencies. He is a below-average defender in left field, but that won't stop the O's from giving him time there while also giving him starts as the designated hitter. With a potentially plus hit tool and 4.3 BB% at Triple-A, Mountcastle is much more valuable in AVG leagues than OBP leagues. He could be a 25-homer threat, thanks in part to his home park, but won't be a threat on the bases. It's not an exciting fantasy profile, but he could spend most of 2020 hitting in the top half of the big-league lineup.
Mountcastle flopped in a 39-game run at Double-A to close 2017, but mastered the level in a return trip. Among qualified Eastern League hitters under 22, only Ke'Bryan Hayes and Brendan Rodgers topped Mountcastle's 121 wRC+. If he were a quality defensive third baseman, the profile would be straightforward, as he should hit enough to profile at the hot corner. Unfortunately, he will likely have to move to left field or DH, which means his bat (potentially plus hit tool with above-average power) needs to max out. Mountcastle's 6.1 BB% was the eighth-worst mark in the Eastern League, but he makes contact at a high clip (18.5 K%) and uses the whole field. A reasonable outcome would be a .280 hitter who hits 20-25 home runs. Fantasy managers would take that production, but if it comes with a low walk rate and below-average defense, most big-league teams would be unsatisfied. Fortunately, the Orioles are not most big-league teams.
Mountcastle had more home runs (18) than walks (17) in 2017, but was still able to break out as a legitimate fantasy prospect thanks to his innate bat-to-ball ability. He led the Carolina League with a .314 average while ranking fifth in home runs (15) and eighth in strikeout rate (16.1 percent), all while being one of the 10 youngest hitters in the league and playing just 88 games prior to a promotion to Double-A. The breakout party came to a screeching halt in the Eastern League, as his walk rate dropped to 1.9 percent, he became much more pull happy (54.8 percent), and simply put too many pitcher's pitches in play. He will head back to Double-A for his age-21 season, with plenty of time to make adjustments at the plate. Evaluators still see a hitter with the potential to flirt with .300 and provide 20-plus homer pop. Unfortunately, he is a below-average runner and doesn't have the arm for shortstop or third base, so left field makes the most sense long term.
Mountcastle was viewed by many as a reach at No. 36 overall in the 2015 first-year player draft, but if he puts it all together, he could be a major league regular at shortstop in three or four years. Standing 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, Mountcastle was touted for his raw power coming out of high school, but that raw power did not translate during his first calendar year in professional ball. He slugged just .393 between rookie ball and Low-A Aberdeen in 2015 and managed one home run over the first two months of 2016. Finally, Mountcastle began to put the ball over the fence in June and went on to hit nine homers over the final three months of his age-19 season. He'll need to develop a keener eye and make more consistent contact to have success at the upper levels, and speed is not a part of the package. Still, Mountcastle deserves to be monitored by those in long-term keeper leagues.
The Orioles used a 2015 compensatory pick on Mountcastle. They may have reached a bit in order to sign him under slot, though Mountcastle was a late blooming prospect whose reputation grew only over the year before he was drafted. Mountcastle is widely regarded to possess superior bat speed and profiles with above-average power. As with most players out of high school, Mountcastle's power may not be present, but he is expected to add more muscle over the next few seasons. It will not be surprising to see him retain a higher than average BABIP the way the ball jumps off his bat. Mountcastle started his professional career as a shortstop, but his defense probably will not be enough to stay put and he could move to third base or a corner outfield spot. He posted respectable numbers in Rookie League, earning a 10-game cameo in short-season ball. The Orioles are high on Mountcastle and he is advanced enough to be able to begin the 2016 season at Low-A.
More Fantasy News
Reaches deal with Baltimore
1BBaltimore Orioles
January 11, 2024
Mountcastle agreed to a one-year, $4.14 million contract with the Orioles on Thursday to avoid arbitration, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.
ANALYSIS
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Out of lineup Sunday
1BBaltimore Orioles
October 1, 2023
Mountcastle is not in Sunday's lineup against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Activated from 10-day IL
1BBaltimore Orioles
September 27, 2023
Mountcastle (shoulder) was activated from the 10-day injured list ahead of Wednesday's game against the Nationals, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Takes BP, nearing activation
1BBaltimore Orioles
Shoulder
September 26, 2023
Mountcastle (shoulder) took batting practice on the field Tuesday and is likely a couple days away from being reinstated from the 10-day injured list, Cordell Woodland of 105.7 The Fan Baltimore reports.
ANALYSIS
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Minimum IL stint possible
1BBaltimore Orioles
Shoulder
September 23, 2023
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said Saturday he believes Mountcastle (shoulder) will be able to return from the injured list when first eligible, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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