FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

With the NFL taking center stage Sunday evening, the NBA presents a compact five-game slate Sunday afternoon that serves as an excellent appetizer to the Big Game. There should be some competitive matchups across the ledger, with the Jazz-Pacers and Celtics-Suns showdowns especially standing out. However, the injury report - while short overall - includes some notable names that will make lineup construction even a bit more challenging than it already would be with just 10 teams in action.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the three games that will likely carry the highest projected totals on Sunday's slate: 

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets (Projected total: Off the board)

It's certainly not going out on a limb to predict the Wizards' game will carry the slate's highest projected total considering Washington is allowing an NBA-high 121.2 points per game and 48.7 percent shooting, including 49.0 percent on the road. The Hornets are allowing 111.7 points per contest in their own right and also giving up 46.7 percent shooting at home, so both teams could enjoy plenty of strong offensive performances. Finally, consider the Wizards will significantly push the pace for Charlotte as they average almost five more possessions per contest than the Hornets.

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers (Projected total: 228.0 points)

The Kings are allowing a Western Conference-high 118.8 points per game and 48.2 percent shooting. Sacramento will bring a nice bump in pace for the Clippers, as they're averaging 105.3 possessions per game compared to Los Angeles' mark of 99.9. The Clippers will be without Paul George (foot) again Sunday, but they put up 115 versus the Celtics without him Friday and are averaging an impressive 115.1 points per home contest.

Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns  (Projected total: 215.0 points)

The Celtics' defense has been lacking at times this season, and that's likely to continue with both Jaylen Brown (knee) and Marcus Smart (calf) out again Sunday. Boston is giving up 111.1 points per road game and 112.7 over the first three games of its current road trip and are also allowing 47.7 percent shooting on the road. The Suns are a much more formidable defensive unit (107.5 PPG allowed), but Brad Stevens' squad has been hot since getting to the West Coast by averaging 113.7 points per game.

Other high-scoring game to be aware of: Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers (Projected total: 227.0 points)

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Paul George, LAC (foot)/ Status: OUT 

George's second straight absence will afford Luke Kennard another start at shooting guard and should lead to another considerable usage boost for Kawhi Leonard. 

Jimmy Butler, MIA (foot)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Butler is expected to suit up and handle his usual high-usage role in a very tough defensive matchup against the Knicks. 

Jaylen Brown, BOS (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Brown's second straight absence will lead to another big usage bump for Jayson Tatum and - to a lesser degree - the remaining members of the Celtics' starting five. 

Mike Conley, UTA (hamstring)/ Status: OUT

Conley's absence could lead to Joe Ingles reentering the Jazz's starting lineup, with Donovan Mitchell possibly shifting to point guard. Jordan Clarkson could also see increased responsibility off the bench. 

PJ Washington, CHA (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Washington sits out a third straight contest, Miles Bridges should remain in the starting five. 

Devonte' Graham, CHA (groin)/ Status: OUT 

Graham's absence is likely to lead to LaMelo Ball entering the starting lineup, possibly boosting his already robust value. 

Other notable injuries: 

Patrick Beverley, LAC (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Marcus Smart, BOS (calf)/ Status: OUT 

Raul Neto, WAS (groin)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Cameron Payne, PHO (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE

Elite Players

There are only two players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's small slate, with Bradley Beal ($10,800) and Jayson Tatum ($10,200) holding that distinction. If there were more games on the ledger, Beal would potentially take a slight hit in popularity after his seven-point dud against the Heat on Thursday. But with only 10 teams in action, he should still find himself on plenty of rosters. Meanwhile, Tatum should continue to be very popular with Jaylen Brown (knee) out of action again and Tatum sporting a 35.3 percent usage rate while averaging 1.35 FD points per minute without his teammate on the floor.  

There are also several players with salaries in the high four-figures that offer the ability to deliver elite scores, beginning with Kawhi Leonard ($9,900) - who'll be without Paul George (foot) - and continuing with Russell Westbrook ($9,700), Domantas Sabonis ($9,400), Julius Randle ($9,000), Bam Adebayo ($8,800) and De'Aaron Fox ($8,700).

Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton ($8,300), Donovan Mitchell ($7,800), LaMelo Ball ($7,800) and Gordon Hayward ($7,600) are also borderline elite candidates due to their matchups. The Hornets duo is especially poised to benefit from a big bump in pace against the defensively challenged Wizards – as well as the absence of Devonte' Graham - and Mitchell is set to have the ball in his hands even more than usual if he moves over to point guard in place of the absent Mike Conley (hamstring).

Expected Chalk

All the names mentioned in Elite Players section are naturally going to be very popular Sunday, and differentiation in tournaments is going to be a bit of an uphill battle with a modest slate and a couple of big names out of action. In terms of injury-influenced chalk, the healthy members of the Celtics, Hornets and Jazz starting five should all see bumps in their rostering rates to varying degrees given the confirmed absences of Jaylen Brown, Devonte' Graham and Mike Conley. And naturally, with Paul George sitting out for the Clippers, other L.A. first-unit players in addition to Kawhi Leonard should also be popular.

Key Values   

Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA at IND ($6,200)

Bogdanovic comes into a matchup against his old Pacers teammates running hot having scored 27.7 to 46.9 FD points over his last five contests. The veteran has significantly shored up his previously lackluster shooting during that span by draining 60.0 percent of his attempts, including an outstanding 58.5 percent of those from three-point range. The Pacers just happen to check in allowing an NBA-high 39.7 percent shooting from behind the arc, and it's also worth noting Bogdanovic boasts a solid 23.1 percent usage rate with Mike Conley (hamstring) off the floor this season. 

Cody Zeller, CHA vs. WAS ($5,800) 

Zeller has scored 35.8 to 44.4 FD points in three of the last six games and has exceeded 20 FD points in eight straight. The big man draws a matchup conducive to extending that success Sunday, as the opposing Wizards come in allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to centers (35.5 percent) along with the fifth-most FD points per game to the position (39.8). It's also worth noting Washington and its NBA-high 107.1 possessions per game brings a significant boost in pace for Charlotte (102.2 possessions per home contest), giving Zeller some extra opportunities to accrue fantasy production.

Tristan Thompson, BOS at PHO ($4,200)

Thompson is starting to pick it up on the offensive end, as he'll come into Sunday's matchup with three straight double-digit scoring efforts - including one double-double. The veteran big man has encouragingly logged between 22 and 27 minutes in those contests and has come within one-tenth of an FD point of delivering at least a 5x return on his current salary in eight of 19 games this season. Thompson is unsurprisingly starting to acclimate to Brad Stevens' system the more he plays and should once again benefit Sunday from a slight increase in usage with Jaylen Brown (knee) sitting out again. Additionally, the Suns rank in the bottom-half of the league in rebounds per game allowed in the paint (26.0) and to frontcourt players (32.5) as well as FD points per game surrendered to centers (38.5) over the last 10 contests.

Other value plays to consider: RJ Barrett, NY vs. MIA ($6,000); Serge Ibaka, LAC vs. SAC ($5,800); Lou Williams, LAC vs. SAC ($5,500); Jordan Clarkson, UTA vs. IND ($5,000); Reggie Jackson, LAC vs. SAC ($5,000)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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