This article is part of our FanDuel PGA series.
TPC Twin Cities (7,468 yards, par-71)
$1,152,000 and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
The PGA Tour's inaugural 3M Open will serve as the midpoint along this summer's brief three-event midwestern swing, which began with Nate Lashley's emotional maiden win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit and ends in the land of Zach Johnson next week at the John Deere Classic. TPC Twin Cities is no stranger to professional golf, as the Champions Tour teed it up here for nearly two decades, but a skimpy $6.4 purse and a questionable weather forecast failed to draw in many big names for the event's first go-around at the top level. The 156-entrant field is highlighted by World No. 1 Brooks Koepka, but he and Bryson DeChambeau are the only representatives from the Official World Golf Ranking's top 15. Matching the implications of Lashley's victory will be borderline impossible, but the door is now open for another unsung hero to emerge.
Key Stats to Victory
Birdie or better percentage
When TPC Twin Cities hosted the Champions Tour from 2001-2018, par-breaker percentages for the seniors were among the highest you would see all season. Although the course has been lengthened and altered to introduce new challenges for the PGA Tour's more intense level of competition, expect more of the same in terms of lofty birdie or better rates. This will especially ring true with soft conditions resulting from scattered storms throughout the week and into the first two rounds. The greens are large and should hold approaches well, but thick rough and a slew of water hazards combine to form at least some form of defense.
FanDuel Value Picks
Brooks Koepka, $12,600 - It wasn't too tough to tell that Koepka put all his eggs in one basket for what was almost a third straight U.S. Open victory before simply putting on the cruise control en route to a T57 the following week at the Travelers Championship. He's now had some time to recuperate, but the questions surrounding his effort level in a non-major remain. Nonetheless, he heads to TPC Twin Cities as the betting favorite while leading the field in GIR percentage and proximity from over 200 yards throughout his last 24 rounds as well.
Hideki Matsuyama, $11,500 - Given how good Matsuyama's ball striking can be on a weekly basis, it's a mystery as to how he remains outside of the top 30 in both the FedExCup standings and OWGR at this point. Nobody has been better in this week's field in terms of SG: Approach or SG: Tee-to-Green than Matsuyama over their last 12 rounds, while he ranks top-10 on Tour in birdie average for the season as well. He's gained an average of 6.7 strokes from tee to green throughout his past 10 tournaments and will inevitably bust through for at least a podium finish if the putter remains even just slightly above average.
Jason Day, $11,400 - Day is no longer the world's top-ranked Aussie with Adam Scott overtaking those honors, but the former has still placed top-25 in all but one of his six starts dating back to the Masters. He's top-20 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, GIR percentage and birdie average, which are all key predictors of DFS upside at TPC Twin Cities this week. Day is coming off a T8 performance at the Travelers Championship where he gained over six strokes on approach shots and managed to lean on his ball striking en route to a top-10, but uncharacteristically lost strokes with the flat stick.
Patrick Reed, $10,700 - Reed is trending in the right direction, posting increasingly better results of T32-T30-T5 in three starts since the U.S. Open. Reed is seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds, and he strung together four consecutive scores of 70 or better at the Rocket Mortgage Classic en route to his best result of the season. Reed somewhat surprisingly gained an impressive 6.3 strokes on approach shots, which was his best showing in this metric since a career-best 8.4 at the 2018 Valspar Championship.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Rory Sabbatini, $10,000 - Sabbatini's career resurgence continues, as a T3 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic propelled him back inside the OWGR's top 100 for the first time since October of 2012. Not only is he up to 41st in the FedExCup standings, but Sabbatini has made 13 consecutive cuts, which is the fourth longest streak on Tour. Over his last 24 rounds, the 43-year-old ranks fourth in birdie or better percentage.
Sepp Straka, $8,700 - Straka landed in this section last week and delivered a T11, so we're not going to hop off the hype train now. The rookie has risen to a career-best 266th in the OWGR and he's top-10 among his peers in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds. Straka also ranks sixth in proximity from 150-175 yards and needs to make a push for the top-125 mark in the FedExCup standings sooner than later.
Peter Malnati, $8,700 - With just one missed cut over his last 12 starts, Malnati has provided quite a bit of value as a cash-game asset given his extremely affordable price on a weekly basis. He's now gained strokes on approach shots in five consecutive starts and consequently tallied five top-40s during this span. Malnati's greatest efficiencies lie with the flat stick as he ranks 17th on Tour in SG: Putting.
Max Homa, $8,300 - It's been awhile since that electric celebration on the 72nd hole of the Wells Fargo Championship, but Homa has managed to stay relevant with made cuts in four of five starts since the win at Quail Hollow. He ranks seventh in SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds and fourth in proximity from over 200 yards throughout his past 24 strolls around the course. Homa could be even better if he's able to correct his scrambling issues, having lost strokes around the green in four straight starts.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
As is the norm with an expected birdie-fest, target upside from a fantasy scoring perspective by selecting players with more ball-striking capabilities than short-game prowess and the length necessary to reach par-5s in two or short par-4s off the tee. In terms of pricing and lineup construction, certainly don't be afraid to splurge by selecting Koepka at the top, with only six options costing you more than $10,500.