This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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Four wins, three weeks!
CHARLOTTE, NC
There couldn't be a better time for the Wells Fargo Championship. One of the most popular wins in RTL history came last year when Wyndham Clark won by three strokes over Xander Schauffele for a +7500 return. Considering we are in the midst of a four-win -- Nelly Korda, Korda + Scottie Scheffler parlay, Hannah Green, Taylor Pendrith -- three-week run, walking around Quail Hollow the vibes are very strong. Which is fun because this is a venue worthy of a major championship!
The sixth Signature Event of the 2024 PGA TOUR schedule is the Wells Fargo. Sixty-nine players -- Ludvig Aberg withdrew -- will compete for $20 million and $3.6 million for first place. No stranger to big events, I have been to Quail Hollow a couple of times to cover the Wells Fargo and the 2022 Presidents Cup. If Augusta National Golf Club sets the global tournament standard, the membership of Quail Hollow does their very best to impress. It is no wonder we will be back next year for another PGA Championship.
2024 Wells Fargo Championship: Queen City, King's course
The par-71 layout covers an enormous number of acres. Set just southeast of downtown Charlotte, this is probably one of my favorite Tom Fazio designs. The course has character. There are numerous elevation changes, an awesome variety of holes, and a finish that any championship course would envy. Sixty-one carefully placed bunkers and seven holes where water comes into play builds an amphitheater of excitement.
Since Wyndham's win, the course has seen some changes. Twenty-five yards were added to the sixteenth hole. I guess they needed to make one of the hardest holes on property even tougher. A couple of new tee boxes were added, and most intriguing was the description of "softening" twelve of the greens. As green textures and speeds continue to become more difficult, classic courses like Quail Hollow can get a little scary on those surfaces. You'll lose hole locations and stand a very good chance of things getting out of hand for an important championship.
We skipped 2017 and 2022 at QHC. The last 10 Wells Fargo editions take us back twelve winners. In those ten tournaments, the average details are:
- Winning score, 12 under par.
- Cutline, two over par.
- Winner's pre-tournament odds +12000.
That last one really stands out. Even when we hosted an elevated full field event last year (remember those?) the winner was long-shot Clark! Quail Hollow has provided us with seven winners over +4000 in the last 10 years. Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Clark all broke through at Wells Fargo. It's a very interesting note and one that will factor into our outright portfolio.
Twenty-two of the top 25 in the OWGR are competing. The only non-LIV golfer absent is one Mr. Scheffler. The most notable of competitors has now skipped the Wells Fargo two years in a row. It is also worth noting that in eight days the PGA Championship begins, and Meredith Scheffler is still pregnant. Timing is everything in life and we are about to see how badly Scottie wants to take a run at the Grand Slam.
No Scottie means we can play this Signature sojourn straight up. Considering the recent run at RTL, Scottie's absence couldn't come at a better time. Wells Fargo is a wonderful warmup for next week at Valhalla. Many of the player features I discuss below will also apply in a week's time. It's almost as if we are getting the perfect warm-up venue for a major championship. There's no doubt a Signature field will also reveal some serious clues going into the season's second major.
You can always click the real-time weather link above, but in summary the course is in great condition. What I have come to expect when on property at QHC. The region has been relatively dry the past few weeks and we will only receive a couple of showers this week. Overall, the forecast calls for mild conditions, temperatures in the mid-70s, and wind in the low teens. Thursday could get a little wet, but with a small field and late spring daylight, tournament officials can create a great competitive atmosphere.
The Quail Hollow Club is a very strong test. Nine par 4s are over 450 yards in length. The par 3s are treacherous and the finish is the hardest on TOUR. We learned last week on the seventy-second hole that NOTHING IS CERTAIN. Make sure you manifest until the last putt goes in the hole. The finishes at Quail Hollow have been electric at times. Just like so many of the winners they have crowned so early in their careers.
2024 Wells Fargo Championship: Drive for show, putt for dough
I believe winning at QHC is a very simple formula. Clark showed us perfectly last year and the analytics of the last 10 Wells winners at QHC back up his impressive victory. This is the fifth longest course on TOUR. The average driving distance is 301 yards. That's 17 more yards than the PGA TOUR average! Need more ball speed validation, the best driver of this generation, McIlroy, has won here three times. Two healthy inches of overseeded rough also dictate success.
The most interesting analytic clue comes on the putting greens. The last 10 winners have gained over six strokes on average versus the field with their flat stick. I picked Wyndham last year because he is a great putter. These greens are amazing. They are the closest putting surfaces you will see on TOUR to what tests the players at Augusta National. They really are cool, and these subtle new changes will only emphasize good putting even more. The field is finding out very quickly, they can make putts. Our outrights can all roll the rock. In the last decade, the winner has gained over five strokes eight times.
Over 50 percent of the incoming approach shots are played from over 175 yards. Thirty percent from over 200 yards. Tiger taught us for twenty years that long iron play is the quickest way to differentiate from the pack. Scheffler separates the same way with his long game. When Clark won last year, he gained nine strokes on the field with his approach play. Considering the landscape of these green complexes, proximity to the hole becomes very important. This is not TPC Craig Ranch, Wyndham made 23 sub-par score last year because his iron game was locked in.
This par 71 scorecard boasts 11 par 4s with an average length of 456 yards! Nine of them measure over 450 yards. Par 4 scoring always indicates success on difficult courses. Survive the par 3s at QHC, score on the 5s, and win on the par 4s. The last 10 winners have gained an average of 10 strokes on the field with their par 4 play. From the drivable fourteenth to the now 529-yard peninsula green sixteenth, these 11 holes are varied and tough. Get it done here and you'll be a major part of the conversation come Sunday afternoon.
Thirteen holes at QHC have a bogey rate over 15 percent. In comparison, just five holes have a birdie rate over that value. Three of those holes are par 5s. You'll hear endless amounts of talk about the finish (Green Mile) this week but pay attention to the start. Quail Hollow also has one of the toughest starts on the PGA TOUR. Holes one, two, and three play a half stroke over par. Avoiding bogeys early, late, and through the rest of your round is another key to success. Saving par around these immense green complexes takes short game savvy.
I'm taking a collection of athletes this week. Players who impress us with their physical skill and talent between the trees. Much like Augusta National, television cannot capture the terrain at Quail Hollow. Walking this course for a guaranteed four days is as much a mental test as it is a physical grind. Take a look at our team below as we go for four weeks in row!
2024 Wells Fargo Championship: Outright Winners
Wyndham Clark (+1800)
Clark won the Wells Fargo last year at 19-under-par and three clear of the field.
- In five Signature Events this year, Clark has a win, a runner-up and a third place finish. He was also runner-up at THE PLAYERS.
- Wyndham is first in the field for SG:Putt, BoB%, and opportunities gained.
- Clark in incredibly long off the tee and has been hitting a ton of GIRs during this run.
- Ranked second in short game, his bogey avoidance is impressive.
Sahith Theegala (+3000)
In those same Signature starts, Theegala has two runners-up, and a sixth place.
- Theegala also finished top 10 at WMPO and THE PLAYERS.
- In his last five starts, Sahith is gaining an average of three strokes T2G and another three strokes putting on the field.
- Theegala is now a top 20 T2G player and top 12 in ball striking.
- He's ranked second in the field for strokes gained putting.
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