Willson Contreras

31-Year-Old CatcherC

St. Louis Cardinals

2023 Stats

AVG

.220

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Contreras posted a career-high 132 wRC+ which could have been even better, except he had to deal with a multitude of injuries, most notably recurring hamstring and ankle woes. Even so, Contreras managed 487 plate appearances, the third most of his career. Serving as the designated hitter 39 times helped keep Contreras' bat in the lineup when he was hurt. Fueling the career year was a personal-best 21.1% strikeout rate and a career-high 48.6% hard-hit rate. Contreras 21.2% HR/FB was typically high, but a 33% flyball rate limits Contreras' power. Many expected Contreras to be dealt at the trade deadline, but he finished the season with the Cubs before declining their qualifying offer. Contreras signed a five-year, $87.5 million deal with the rival Cardinals and will presumably hit in a favorable spot in a far superior lineup -- the park move was neutral. The top end of the catcher pool is improving, but Contreras still warrants upper tier status. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#91

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 225

DOB 5/13/1992

Born Puerto Cabello, Venezuela

College None

Drafted 2009 CHC

Gets Sunday off

CSt. Louis Cardinals

May 28, 2023

Contreras is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians.

ANALYSIS
Contreras has struggled mightily at the plate as of late, as he hasn't picked up a hit since May 20. He'll get a chance to rest against Cleveland on Sunday with Andrew Knizner handling catching duties and hitting ninth.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+14%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+8%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+7%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+21%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.849	302	41	19	47	3	.245	.328	.521
Since 2021vs Right	.747	878	106	29	90	10	.233	.341	.407
2023vs Left	.710	47	5	3	10	0	.205	.255	.455
2023vs Right	.657	163	16	2	15	4	.225	.319	.338
2022vs Left	.859	123	15	8	14	1	.219	.325	.533
2022vs Right	.801	364	50	14	41	3	.251	.357	.444
2021vs Left	.891	132	21	8	23	2	.284	.356	.534
2021vs Right	.734	351	40	13	34	3	.219	.333	.401
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+7%

OPS at Home

2023

+63%

OPS at Home

2022

+1%

OPS at Home

2021

+4%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.800	610	86	28	85	10	.242	.339	.460
Since 2021Away	.747	571	61	20	52	3	.230	.336	.411
2023Home	.829	106	14	4	18	4	.271	.340	.490
2023Away	.510	105	7	1	7	0	.167	.276	.233
2022Home	.821	257	39	10	33	4	.259	.362	.459
2022Away	.809	230	26	12	22	0	.224	.335	.474
2021Home	.764	247	33	14	34	2	.212	.316	.448
2021Away	.792	236	28	7	23	3	.264	.364	.428
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Stat Review

How does Willson Contreras compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.49

BB Rate

10.9%

K Rate

22.3%

BABIP

.267

ISO

.145

AVG

.220

OBP

.308

SLG

.366

OPS

.674

wOBA

.302

Exit Velocity

91.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

42.9%

Barrels/PA

7.0%

Expected BA

.263

Expected SLG

.463

Sprint Speed

23.1 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

48.6%

Line Drive %

17.1%

Fly Ball %

34.3%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Contreras is facing an uncertain 2022 given it's the final year of his contract and the Cubs are all but certain to move the veteran catcher. Contreras resumed his power-hitting abilities in 2021, but did so while posting a career-worst 28.6% strikeout rate which pulled his average down to a career-low .237. His plate discipline was mostly consistent with previous efforts and the strikeouts were more correlated to him taking called strikes (16% rate was also a career worst). Sensing a trend here? Being a veteran who was around for the good times only to see all of your friends leave cannot be easy. A new location may not offer the same playing-time guarantees that Contreras enjoys in Chicago. Regardless a change of scenery should serve him well in 2022.

Contreras is capable of better than what he produced at the plate in 2020, as his 109 wRC+, the product of a .243/.356/.407 slash line, represented the second-lowest mark of his five-year career. In the context of a rather weak catcher pool, however, those numbers were perfectly adequate. He chipped in with seven homers, tying him for fourth at the position. His 25.3 K% was the worst mark of his career but was barely worse than his 24.9 K% from 2019. When he did hit the ball, he actually hit it harder than ever before, generating a career-high 47.8% hard-hit rate that helped him to a .441 xSLG. Contreras has pretty much settled into a stable spot in the catcher hierarchy through five big-league seasons, sitting not quite at the top of the pile but not far from it. Since his debut season, he ranks in the top seven among backstops in all five standard fantasy categories.

Contreras was an above-average offensive catcher in 2019 for the third time in four seasons. The one "down" season saw him perform at a league-average level relative to his position. Last year looked a lot like the guy we fell in love with in 2017, which is what owners who bought him on the cheap wanted to see from the catcher. He maintains his excellence against left-handed pitching, but the bounce-back numbers from 2019 came from his resurgence against righties as he improved his OPS against them by 150 points over 2018. The Statcast numbers do not validate the performance as most of Contreras' expected statistics are nearly a full deviation below his actual outcomes from 2019. That's despite the fact his 42% hard-hit rate was easily the best of his four-year career. Bake in some regression in the numbers, but the skills here have proven to be relatively stable even if the outcomes are a bit wonky.

Contreras was one of many disappointing catchers as 2018 was an off year for the position. His primary downfall was a precipitous drop in power, fueled by a plummeting HR/FB mark. Contreras hits over half of his batted balls on the ground so he needs to maintain a lofty HR/FB level to generate power. While some pullback from 2017's 26% was likely, falling to a meek 9% was a shock, though supported by a drop in hard-hit rate in a year where the average rate increased. Contreras' plate skills held steady as did his BABIP, so his batting average drop was due to homers converted to outs. Contreras will be 27 years old this season, so chances are 2018 was more fluke than fact. Expect a power rebound, though capped by a 30% flyball rate. Since he'll remain a bell cow behind the dish, hitting in the meat of the Cubs' order, Contreras is a strong candidate to return top-five backstop status, likely at a discounted price.

Although he was limited to just 117 games last season, mainly due to a hamstring injury which cost him almost a month, Contreras still finished as a top-six catcher in standard formats. He posted a mighty healthy .223 ISO, which would have been a top-50 overall mark in baseball had Contreras logged enough plate appearances to qualify, and he improved both his strikeout (22.9 percent) and walk (10.5 percent) rates from his already strong marks as a rookie. The 25-year-old barrels the ball up consistently and he hits same-handed pitching well, as evidenced by his .273/.347/.486 career line against righties (.292/.379/.514 against lefties). Contreras has established himself as a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat in a good offense, and his ability to play the outfield and first base in a pinch helps pad his counting totals a little more than other starting catchers. Buster Posey may go ahead of Contreras in a lot of drafts, but Contreras could outproduce the veteran in 2018.

After taking a big step forward at the plate during his 2015 campaign at Double-A, Contreras raked at Triple-A Iowa to begin the season and forced his way onto the Cubs' 25-man roster in short order. Especially for a 24-year-old, his performance was impressive, as he continued to show a discerning eye (9.2 percent walk rate) while flashing 20-25 home run pop. Additionally, Contreras proved to be an above-average defender, which should give him the starting job again in 2017 regardless of what the team does with Miguel Montero. Although his overall line fell during the second half, Contreras cut his strikeout rate from 26.9 percent to 22.1 percent during that span. Moreover, Contreras demonstrated the ability to handle righties and lefties, swatting 10 of his 12 homers against the former while maintaining a slightly higher OPS against the latter (.854). Contreras' pop and run-production potential give him a chance to finish as a top-five catcher in 2017.

Contreras spent the whole year with Double-A Tennessee in 2015 and easily had the best season of his professional career. The 23-year-old backstop batted .333 with 75 RBI and 71 runs for the Smokies and has played his way into the Cubs' long-term plans. With Kyle Schwarber possibly sticking in the outfield, another good year in the minors for Contreras could put him in contention for a spot on the 2017 roster. His BB:K ratio was abysmal coming into 2015, but he learned to take pitches last year, and it paid off in spades. That 57:62 BB:K is appealing, especially coming from a catcher, but he'll need to do it again before we should get too excited.

More Fantasy News

Getting day off

CSt. Louis Cardinals

May 25, 2023

Contreras is not in the lineup for Thursday's game in Cincinnati, 101 ESPN St. Louis reports.