Willson Contreras

Contreras' first year in St. Louis was a bumpy one with a .438 winning percentage being the organization's worst since 1995. The drama started early with his new team, as he was pushed out from behind the plate in May due to poor defensive metrics, since the Cardinals apparently didn't realize he's always been a bat-first catcher. He still ended up making 97 appearances at catcher compared to 30 at designated hitter, but the early-season issues set the tone for what ended up being an awful season for St. Louis. Individually however, Contreras was his usual productive self offensively, as he delivered a fourth straight 20-homer campaign (the shortened 2020 season notwithstanding) and a 127 wRC+, which tied for best in baseball among catchers with at least 450 plate appearances. Volume is the only real concern for fantasy managers at this point -- his 495 plate appearances in 2023 being the second-highest total of his career -- with the lack of opportunities keeping his run production at modest levels (55 runs, 67 RBI last season). Despite that ceiling, Contreras should be locked in as one of the better fantasy catchers again in 2024.

Contreras posted a career-high 132 wRC+ which could have been even better, except he had to deal with a multitude of injuries, most notably recurring hamstring and ankle woes. Even so, Contreras managed 487 plate appearances, the third most of his career. Serving as the designated hitter 39 times helped keep Contreras' bat in the lineup when he was hurt. Fueling the career year was a personal-best 21.1% strikeout rate and a career-high 48.6% hard-hit rate. Contreras 21.2% HR/FB was typically high, but a 33% flyball rate limits Contreras' power. Many expected Contreras to be dealt at the trade deadline, but he finished the season with the Cubs before declining their qualifying offer. Contreras signed a five-year, $87.5 million deal with the rival Cardinals and will presumably hit in a favorable spot in a far superior lineup -- the park move was neutral. The top end of the catcher pool is improving, but Contreras still warrants upper tier status.

Contreras is facing an uncertain 2022 given it's the final year of his contract and the Cubs are all but certain to move the veteran catcher. Contreras resumed his power-hitting abilities in 2021, but did so while posting a career-worst 28.6% strikeout rate which pulled his average down to a career-low .237. His plate discipline was mostly consistent with previous efforts and the strikeouts were more correlated to him taking called strikes (16% rate was also a career worst). Sensing a trend here? Being a veteran who was around for the good times only to see all of your friends leave cannot be easy. A new location may not offer the same playing-time guarantees that Contreras enjoys in Chicago. Regardless a change of scenery should serve him well in 2022.

Contreras is capable of better than what he produced at the plate in 2020, as his 109 wRC+, the product of a .243/.356/.407 slash line, represented the second-lowest mark of his five-year career. In the context of a rather weak catcher pool, however, those numbers were perfectly adequate. He chipped in with seven homers, tying him for fourth at the position. His 25.3 K% was the worst mark of his career but was barely worse than his 24.9 K% from 2019. When he did hit the ball, he actually hit it harder than ever before, generating a career-high 47.8% hard-hit rate that helped him to a .441 xSLG. Contreras has pretty much settled into a stable spot in the catcher hierarchy through five big-league seasons, sitting not quite at the top of the pile but not far from it. Since his debut season, he ranks in the top seven among backstops in all five standard fantasy categories.

Contreras was an above-average offensive catcher in 2019 for the third time in four seasons. The one "down" season saw him perform at a league-average level relative to his position. Last year looked a lot like the guy we fell in love with in 2017, which is what owners who bought him on the cheap wanted to see from the catcher. He maintains his excellence against left-handed pitching, but the bounce-back numbers from 2019 came from his resurgence against righties as he improved his OPS against them by 150 points over 2018. The Statcast numbers do not validate the performance as most of Contreras' expected statistics are nearly a full deviation below his actual outcomes from 2019. That's despite the fact his 42% hard-hit rate was easily the best of his four-year career. Bake in some regression in the numbers, but the skills here have proven to be relatively stable even if the outcomes are a bit wonky.

Contreras was one of many disappointing catchers as 2018 was an off year for the position. His primary downfall was a precipitous drop in power, fueled by a plummeting HR/FB mark. Contreras hits over half of his batted balls on the ground so he needs to maintain a lofty HR/FB level to generate power. While some pullback from 2017's 26% was likely, falling to a meek 9% was a shock, though supported by a drop in hard-hit rate in a year where the average rate increased. Contreras' plate skills held steady as did his BABIP, so his batting average drop was due to homers converted to outs. Contreras will be 27 years old this season, so chances are 2018 was more fluke than fact. Expect a power rebound, though capped by a 30% flyball rate. Since he'll remain a bell cow behind the dish, hitting in the meat of the Cubs' order, Contreras is a strong candidate to return top-five backstop status, likely at a discounted price.

Although he was limited to just 117 games last season, mainly due to a hamstring injury which cost him almost a month, Contreras still finished as a top-six catcher in standard formats. He posted a mighty healthy .223 ISO, which would have been a top-50 overall mark in baseball had Contreras logged enough plate appearances to qualify, and he improved both his strikeout (22.9 percent) and walk (10.5 percent) rates from his already strong marks as a rookie. The 25-year-old barrels the ball up consistently and he hits same-handed pitching well, as evidenced by his .273/.347/.486 career line against righties (.292/.379/.514 against lefties). Contreras has established himself as a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat in a good offense, and his ability to play the outfield and first base in a pinch helps pad his counting totals a little more than other starting catchers. Buster Posey may go ahead of Contreras in a lot of drafts, but Contreras could outproduce the veteran in 2018.

After taking a big step forward at the plate during his 2015 campaign at Double-A, Contreras raked at Triple-A Iowa to begin the season and forced his way onto the Cubs' 25-man roster in short order. Especially for a 24-year-old, his performance was impressive, as he continued to show a discerning eye (9.2 percent walk rate) while flashing 20-25 home run pop. Additionally, Contreras proved to be an above-average defender, which should give him the starting job again in 2017 regardless of what the team does with Miguel Montero. Although his overall line fell during the second half, Contreras cut his strikeout rate from 26.9 percent to 22.1 percent during that span. Moreover, Contreras demonstrated the ability to handle righties and lefties, swatting 10 of his 12 homers against the former while maintaining a slightly higher OPS against the latter (.854). Contreras' pop and run-production potential give him a chance to finish as a top-five catcher in 2017.

Contreras spent the whole year with Double-A Tennessee in 2015 and easily had the best season of his professional career. The 23-year-old backstop batted .333 with 75 RBI and 71 runs for the Smokies and has played his way into the Cubs' long-term plans. With Kyle Schwarber possibly sticking in the outfield, another good year in the minors for Contreras could put him in contention for a spot on the 2017 roster. His BB:K ratio was abysmal coming into 2015, but he learned to take pitches last year, and it paid off in spades. That 57:62 BB:K is appealing, especially coming from a catcher, but he'll need to do it again before we should get too excited.