Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

27-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Houston Astros
2024 Fantasy Outlook
We are going to say it: Tucker was robbed in 2023. Since Khris Davis left the league, we have lacked a statistically consistent player and Tucker looked to have filled that need with what should have been his 30th homer on the final day of the season. That is, until the official scorer turned it into a triple with an error. That scurrilous decision robbed Tucker of a third consecutive 30 homer season and his first ever 30-30 season. All joking aside, Tucker had a monster fantasy season accepting his walks, rarely striking out, and stepping up as a run producer in the third spot of the lineup while Yordan Alvarez missed time. We have longed to have Tucker hitting in the upper third of the lineup and he did not disappoint with 47 RBIs in 56 games from that spot. Whereas Dusty Baker was reticent to make changes, Joe Espada may change things up to have Tucker hit second and have Bregman in between the lefty at bats. If that happens, Tucker is worth a top five overall pick. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
$Signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the Astros in January of 2024.
No firm extension offers
OFHouston Astros
February 19, 2024
Tucker said Monday regarding a potential contact extension with the Astros that there's been "maybe a little talk, but not a hard offer," Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Tucker will earn $12 million in 2024 and has one additional year of arbitration eligibility remaining before free agency. General manager Dana Brown went on record last week saying that the team would make Tucker a long-term contract offer at some point, but it does not appear to have happened yet. Tucker slashed .284/.369/.517 with 29 homers and 112 RBI for Houston in 2023.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
38
31
40
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
16
14
16
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+2%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+9%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+15%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+1%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .859 661 86 38 138 10 .271 .327 .532
Since 2021vs Right .875 1177 165 51 173 59 .283 .368 .507
2023vs Left .934 237 25 12 47 7 .300 .367 .567
2023vs Right .859 430 72 17 65 23 .275 .370 .489
2022vs Left .736 222 27 13 47 3 .228 .279 .456
2022vs Right .850 384 44 17 60 22 .275 .359 .491
2021vs Left .910 202 34 13 44 0 .286 .332 .578
2021vs Right .920 363 49 17 48 14 .299 .375 .545
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+7%
OPS on Road
2023
 
 
+25%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+15%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+21%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .842 894 122 37 143 33 .276 .343 .498
Since 2021Away .897 944 129 52 168 36 .281 .362 .535
2023Home .785 318 40 10 48 14 .251 .330 .455
2023Away .980 349 57 19 64 16 .315 .404 .576
2022Home .751 302 37 12 46 11 .251 .315 .436
2022Away .866 304 34 18 61 14 .264 .345 .520
2021Home 1.006 274 45 15 49 8 .332 .391 .615
2021Away .832 291 38 15 43 6 .259 .330 .502
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Stat Review
How does Kyle Tucker compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.87
 
BB Rate
12.0%
 
K Rate
13.8%
 
BABIP
.289
 
ISO
.233
 
AVG
.284
 
OBP
.369
 
SLG
.517
 
OPS
.886
 
wOBA
.378
 
Exit Velocity
90.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
38.6%
 
Barrels/PA
7.7%
 
Expected BA
.292
 
Expected SLG
.530
 
Sprint Speed
20.1 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
38.4%
 
Line Drive %
19.1%
 
Fly Ball %
42.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Kyle Tucker See More
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4 days ago
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40 days ago
The RotoWire Roundtable crew shares their latest rankings, with changes as high as the early first round.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Tucker broke out during the shortened 2020 campaign with an .837 OPS and has established himself as a key cog in the Astros' lineup over the past couple years. During 2022 he hit exactly 30 home runs for the second straight season and also stole 25 bases while being caught only four times in 150 games. He saw his batting average and ISO drop about 40 points each to .257 and .221, respectively, but he showed minor improvements in both his strikeout (15.7 percent) and walk rates (9.8 percent). Tucker's solid defense in right field further cements his spot in the everyday lineup, and his 129 wRC+ in the heart of Houston's potent order will continue to provide ample opportunities to rack up counting stats during his age-26 season in 2023.
Tucker flourished in his first season as a regular as he not only matched the performance from his first three partial seasons, he took it to the next level. Fewer strikeouts and more walks drove the improvement as Tucker was more aggressive swinging within the zone while also increasing contact. Additionally, Tucker simultaneously hit more flyballs while increasing his average exit velocity on flyballs, fueling his increase in power. Tucker continued to be an efficient base stealer, getting caught just twice in 16 attempts. He has 20-steal upside if the Astros let him run more. Tucker batted sixth or lower in 100 of 140 games, so more opportunities could follow if he hits higher this season. Most of the games Tucker missed were from two stints on the COVID-19 list. With 10 defensive runs saved, Tucker thrives with the glove as well. Tucker is a burgeoning fantasy stud with five-category potential.
Tucker was already slated to see a lot of playing time last season, but with Yordan Alvarez missing just about the entire year, Tucker appeared in 58 out of 60 games. His slash line was nearly identical to his short stay in 2019 but he did It without the benefit of the livelier ball. Tucker's K% improved which is key for someone so young, providing a batting average floor for his enticing power/speed upside. There's a lot of red in Tucker's Statcast profile, indicating his performance is supported by strong batted-ball skills, notably average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Icing on the cake is a tidy 8-for-9 in stolen-base attempts, prorating to a 20-steal campaign. Tucker is assured of regular playing time, hitting in the middle of a potent order. Entering just his age-24 season, Tucker checks all the boxes for the classic five-category stud, with future first-round, $30-plus potential.
The Astros stuck by Josh Reddick throughout the 2019 season, much to the chagrin of Tucker's fantasy owners. He did finally get some run in September and enjoyed his first taste of big-league success, and even earned a spot on the postseason roster through the World Series. On account of being stuck at Triple-A and accumulating 536 PA with Round Rock, Tucker put up a 30-30 season, leading the PCL in stolen bases. He walked at an 11.2% clip while striking out 21.6% of the time. The latter number jumped to 27.8% against big-league arms and it is a long, unconventional swing, but the batted-ball numbers were excellent and his track record suggests he will be able to make enough contact. The big question is: how much will he run? Houston as a club stole 67 bases all year (17th in total attempts), though Tucker was active on the basepaths and it's possible the Astros run more under a new manager.
Tucker was the second-youngest player and third-best hitter (155 wRC+) in the Pacific Coast League. He had three short stints in the big leagues (MLB debut on July 7) but never got going at the dish. In the 28 Triple-A games (including PCL playoffs) that followed his MLB debut, he hit .388/.463/.750 with 12 home runs and eight steals, so it is safe to say he has nothing to prove at that level. Tucker has plus power and should have no trouble hitting 20-plus homers once he is playing every day. His stolen-base totals oversell his pure speed, but he has good instincts on the bases and should be a double-digit contributor there as well. His batted-ball profile at Triple-A was ideal (35.8 GB%), and while he may not be a .300 hitter, he will do a lot of damage as a .270 or .280 hitter. To manipulate his service time to maximize their years of control, the Astros would need to hold Tucker down until mid-May, which would be disingenuous, but also can't be ruled out.
Reasonable minds could disagree about whether power, speed or batting average will be Tucker's most valuable fantasy contribution, and that's the selling point. He's good at everything. In 2016 he stole 32 bases on 44 tries. He only stole 21 bags last year, but launched 25 homers across stops at High-A and Double-A, putting an end to the "will he hit for power" debate. A .286 BABIP suppressed his Texas League batting average, but his hit tool has the potential to be special -- his swing receives Ted Williams comps. Tucker has been unduly pull happy (49.1 percent pull rate at Double-A) for a prospect with the raw talent to compete for batting titles. His newfound over-the-fence power may have momentarily compromised his approach, but with more upper-level instruction, he should eventually display an all-fields approach. He is the Astros' best hitting prospect since Alex Bregman and capable of playing all three outfield spots, so while the big-league roster is crowded, the velvet rope will be lifted when he's ready to join the mix this summer.
Drafted fifth overall in 2015, Tucker spent much of last season with Low-A Quad Cities but reached the High-A level for the final 16 games of his age-19 campaign. The brother of Preston Tucker (also in the Astros organization), Kyle didn't miss a beat following the promotion. In fact, he surged at the dish, going 20-for-59 (.339 average) with 11 extra-base hits and a 10:6 BB:K with Lancaster. Not only does Tucker demonstrate an advanced approach and discerning eye for his age, he has plus speed and there's plenty of room for power growth as he fills out his 6-foot-4 frame. He is already a top-20 prospect for fantasy purposes and he has the skill set to rise quickly through the system, so Tucker should be treated as a hot commodity in any long-term keeper league with minor league roster spots.
Tucker, the fifth overall pick of the 2015 draft, joined the same organization as his older brother Preston when the Astros selected him last June. One of the top hitting prospects in the 2015 class, the 6-foot-4, 190-pound outfielder struggled in rookie ball, hitting only .246/.294/.353 in 63 games between the Gulf Coast League and Greeneville Astros. He did help Greeneville win the Appalachian League title, however, alongside 37th overall pick Daz Cameron.
More Fantasy News
Avoids arbitration
OFHouston Astros
January 11, 2024
Tucker signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the Astros on Thursday to avoid arbitration, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hitting sixth again in Game 4
OFHouston Astros
October 19, 2023
Tucker will bat sixth again Thursday in Game 4 of the ALCS versus the Rangers.
ANALYSIS
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Dropped to sixth in lineup
OFHouston Astros
October 18, 2023
Tucker will start in right field and bat sixth Wednesday in Game 3 of the ALCS versus the Rangers.
ANALYSIS
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Could be moved down in order
OFHouston Astros
October 17, 2023
Astros manager Dusty Baker said he is considering dropping Tucker down in the lineup for Wednesday's ALCS Game 3 versus the Rangers, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Reaches 30-steal mark
OFHouston Astros
September 30, 2023
Tucker went 1-for-3 with a walk, a stolen base and a run scored in Saturday's 1-0 win over the Diamondbacks.
ANALYSIS
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