This might sound like hyperbole, but this is one of the best sports days of the year. It's one of the rare times that every game on a slate is an elimination game. Seeing these types of winner-take-all games is a dream for any sports fan, and we'll be treated to three of them here! That's as good as it gets, so let's go ahead and look at it from a DFS standpoint.
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Pitching
Jack Flaherty, DET at CLE ($8,000)
With limited pitching options on this short slate, let's pick an arm with massive upside as our favorite per-dollar play. Flaherty has just that, posting a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last season. His 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this year are far from par for Flaherty, but his 10.5 K/9 rate and 3.69 xFIP indicate that he's been unlucky all season. Flaherty also finished the season with a 2.22 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 rate across his last four starts. Two of those were against Cleveland, with Flaherty scoring at least 34 FanDuel points in five of his seven starts against them since last year. That's no surprise since they were last in xwOBA and 29th in OBP during the regular season. There's a chance he might not even make it to the fifth inning, but it's possible that no starter on this slate does that either.
Slade Cecconi, CLE vs. DET ($8,400)
This slate is nearly impossible to dissect from a pitching perspective with no player projected to get past the fifth inning, but Cecconi is a solid option. He's the home pitcher in a pick 'em matchup which is projected to be the lowest-scoring game on this slate. That's already a recipe for success, especially since Cecconi has collected a 2.19 ERA and 0.69 WHIP across his last four starts. It's not like Detroit's lineup is too daunting, with the Tigers ranked 22nd in runs scored and 24th in OBP in the second half. Not to mention, Cecconi scored 31 and 43 FD points in his two matchups with the Tigers this season.
Top Targets
Aaron Judge, NYY (vs. Payton Tolle) $4,700
There's been a ton of silly skepticism regarding Judge's postseason performance, but this is an excellent time for him to quiet those notions. The two-time AL MVP had another massive campaign, maintaining a .457 OBP and 1.145 OPS in another ridiculous run. His splits were even better, sporting a .491 OBP and 1.279 OPS against southpaws. That won't bode well for a rookie who has a 6.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. This is one of the few times we don't have to pay up for pitching, so spend that salary on a stud like Judge. We don't mind a full-on Yankees stack, with Jazz Chisholm ($3,600), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500) and Ben Rice ($3,200) all in play.
Michael Busch, CHC (vs. Yu Darvish) $3,300
Many people outside of Chicago might not realize this, but Busch is one of the best hitters in the NL. This third-year player has been the everyday leadoff hitter against right-handers, registering a .272 AVG, .554 SLG and .910 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. That's hard to overlook when examining his recent form, totaling a .403 OBP, .923 SLG and 1.326 OPS across his final 15 regular-season games. Darvish is also one of the best matchups on this short slate, and we'll discuss that more in the stacks section!
Bargain Bats
Ryan O'Hearn, SD (vs. Jameson Taillon) $3,000
O'Hearn quietly had an All-Star campaign in his time with Baltimore, and he should have plenty of opportunities in this stacked San Diego lineup. He'll hit behind numerous superstars, posting a .281 AVG, .366 OBP and .803 OPS in a career year. O'Hearn has also had his way with right-handed pitching, providing a .280 AVG and .791 OPS against them over the last three years. That's a large sample size of raking, and it shouldn't be an issue against Taillon's 4.66 FIP. If you want to stack San Diego, Fernando Tatis ($4,000), Manny Machado ($3,700) and Jackson Merrill ($3,300) are all good pairings with O'Hearn.
Masataka Yoshida, BOS (vs. Cam Schlittler) $2,800
Yoshi has missed a ton of time due to injuries since signing a few years ago, but he always dominates when he's out there. Yoshida has a .282 career AVG and .762 OPS. That's an impressive start to his career, but it looks even better since Yoshi has a .295 AVG and .795 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That's all you can ask for from a sub-$3K player, especially since he's hitting cleanup for a sneaky Sox lineup. Schlittler can be a scary matchup, but a rookie facing the Red Sox in a deciding game is always an iffy proposition.
Stacks to Consider
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish): Kyle Tucker ($3,900), Seiya Suzuki ($3,600), Busch ($3,300), Pete Crow-Armstrong ($3,200)
It saddens me to recommend bats against Darvish because he's been one of my favorite pitchers over the last decade. Father Time always prevails in the end, and he's showing his teeth to Darvish. The 39-year-old has a career-worst 5.38 ERA while generating a 7.26 ERA on the road this season. That's concerning against Chicago, with the Cubs sitting top-10 in runs scored, OBP and home runs.
We have to kickstart our stack with Tucker because he's been one of the best bats in baseball for five years. He had 22 homers and 25 steals across 136 games this year while totaling a .875 OPS since 2019. Suzuki was one of the hottest hitters in baseball to close the regular season, homering in his final four games en route to a 2.005 OPS. PCA is the final piece of the stack, providing 31 homers and 35 steals while accruing a .838 OPS against righties.
