MLB Bets Today: Same-Game Parlays and Props for Wednesday, Oct. 1
2025 Regular-Season Betting Record: 43-39-3 (+1.95 units)
2025 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 26-19 (+5.15 units)
The postseason is underway, and I'm honing in on this evening's AL and NL Wild Card Series matchups to highlight at least one same-game parlay and player prop in each contest.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bets
The Red Sox got the better of their bitter rivals Tuesday night in a game featuring a thrilling finish, instantly setting up an elimination scenario for the Yankees in their home park. The Bronx Bombers are unsurprisingly solid moneyline favorites to even up the series, but the Brayan Bello-Carlos Rodon pitching matchup sets up the expectation of a low-scoring game that could come down to a single at-bat or mistake pitch.
Bello did finish out the regular season in concerning form, taking three straight losses and pitching to a 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, middling 5.8 K/9 and elevated 4.3 BB/9 in the 25 innings covering his last five trips to the mound overall. One of the outings in the sample was a Sept. 13 encounter with these same Yankees at Fenway Park, where he surrendered four runs on five hits and three walks across five innings.
Bello was actually a bit better on the road than at home overall this season, but he did have more trouble with the long ball when traveling (1.1 HR/9) than at Fenway (0.7 HR/9). However, it's worth noting he tossed a pair of seven-inning shutouts, including one at Yankee Stadium, in his first two meetings with New York this season.
Rodon posted a career-best 18 wins in 2025, and both his 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHP were his best in his three seasons to date in the Big Apple. The veteran southpaw was even sharper at home with a 2.98 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, and he also posted 10 of his victories there. Rodon did pitch to a 1.3 HR/9 in the Bronx, but he didn't allow any ball to leave the park over the 5.2 innings he tossed against Boston on Aug. 24, his most recent encounter with the Red Sox. He's also done a good job overall against current Red Sox hitters, limiting them to a collective .228 average over 131 career encounters and surrendering a respectable four homers in that sample.
The Red Sox struggled plenty against left-handers on the road in the second half of the season, mustering a lowly .200 average, .264 wOBA and -14.8 wRAA in that split, along with a 24.7 percent strikeout rate. Consequently, I like a same-game parlay that banks on the favorite Yankees staying alive and the two starters keeping things reasonably under control in the first five innings, along with a prop that banks on Rodon getting to at least six strikeouts for the 17th time in 34 starts since the beginning of the season.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Yankees
- SGP: Yankees moneyline and Under 6.5 runs -F5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
The Dodgers' bats were in fine form in Game 1 on Tuesday night, with Dave Roberts' squad cruising to a 10-5 win behind an impressive outing from Blake Snell and a five-homer barrage from its fearsome lineup.
Los Angeles is unsurprisingly a heavy favorite to close things out Wednesday, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto enters his start pitching about as well as anyone in either circuit. The right-hander finished off the regular season in nearly unhittable form, pitching to an 0.79 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and 0.3 HR/9 over the 34 innings covering his final five starts of the campaign. Yamamoto was better in certain metrics on the road this season, but he still allowed less than a home run per nine innings (0.9 HR/9) at Dodger Stadium and also generated an 11.0 K/9 there.
Reds hitters have had little to no luck against Yamamoto in their respective careers, as he's held them to a collective .175/.267/.250 slash line in 45 career plate appearances, a sample where he hasn't surrendered a home run and has rang up 15 Ks. Cincinnati scuffled against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month of the season as well, posting a middling .231 average, .304 wOBA and -2.6 wRAA in that split, along with a 24.8 percent strikeout rate.
Yamamoto is opposed by Zack Littell, who did close out the season in solid form but also surrendered 36 homers this season and pitched to a 1.7 HR/9 on the road. He hasn't had much exposure to current Dodgers bats, but Max Muncy, who returned to action in Tuesday's Game 1 after sitting out the final four games of the regular season due to a lower-body issue, has a .400 average with a pair of round-trippers against him in six career encounters. With the Dodgers' projected run total already having been bet up from 4.7 at the open to 5.1, I like a prop banking on Muncy to be part of the offensive contributions. Our two SGPs also back the success of the hosts and Yamamoto specifically.
MLB Picks for Reds at Dodgers
- SGP: Dodgers moneyline - F5 and Under 6.5 runs- F5 (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Max Muncy Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7+ Strikeouts and Los Angeles Dodgers To Win (+115 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Yankees moneyline and Under 6.5 runs -F5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Dodgers moneyline - F5 and Under 6.5 runs- F5 (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Max Muncy Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7+ Strikeouts and Los Angeles Dodgers To Win (+115 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
