Fernando Tatis

24-Year-Old OutfielderOF

San Diego Padres

2023 Stats

AVG

.257

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Tatis may possibly be the biggest fantasy wildcard of 2023. He will be coming off an 80-game suspension for PEDs that will end earlier than initially projected since the Padres went deep into the NL playoffs. Tatis is now projected to be back on the active roster in late April, but he has also undergone two different surgeries this winter. He finally had that troublesome shoulder operated on as well as his left wrist. You add in the complexity of missing the entire 2022 season with his off-the-field antics leading to injury, the suspension and two surgeries, and we are left with the question of how early someone will take the risk on a top-five talent in a draft. The upside remains huge, but nobody can be blamed for passing on this maelstrom of risks, as we have rarely seen so many red flags at one time with a player, let alone one of his caliber. The projections will likely look conservative for his talents, but with good reason. Simply put, he is going to make or break many fantasy teams in 2023. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#17

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 217

DOB 1/2/1999

Born San Pedro de Macoris, DR

College None

Drafted 2015 CWS

On base three times in loss

OFSan Diego Padres

September 23, 2023

Tatis went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base in Saturday's 5-2 extra-innings loss to the Cardinals.

ANALYSIS
Tatis has picked things up at the plate and on the basepaths lately, going 13-for-39 (.333) with four steals over his last 10 games. He's up to 29 thefts in 33 attempts this season, putting him one shy of reaching the 30-steal mark for the first time. Tatis has added a solid .260/.326/.459 slash line with 25 home runs, 77 RBI, 87 runs scored, 32 doubles and a triple over 134 games.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+12%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+26%

OPS vs LHP

2022

No Stats

2021

+1%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.940	280	47	16	42	13	.295	.379	.561
Since 2021vs Right	.839	899	143	51	133	41	.261	.329	.511
2023vs Left	.915	146	24	7	21	9	.305	.384	.531
2023vs Right	.725	487	67	18	57	20	.244	.300	.425
2022vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021vs Left	.968	134	23	9	21	4	.284	.373	.595
2021vs Right	.978	412	76	33	76	21	.282	.362	.616
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

Even Split

2023

+23%

OPS at Home

2022

No Stats

2021

+22%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.863	568	91	32	76	30	.263	.347	.516
Since 2021Away	.864	613	99	35	99	24	.274	.336	.528
2023Home	.854	301	49	14	35	18	.283	.350	.504
2023Away	.696	334	42	11	43	11	.234	.296	.399
2022Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021Home	.875	267	42	18	41	12	.239	.345	.530
2021Away	1.069	279	57	24	56	13	.323	.384	.685
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Stat Review

How does Fernando Tatis compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.38

BB Rate

8.3%

K Rate

22.2%

BABIP

.299

ISO

.191

AVG

.257

OBP

.322

SLG

.449

OPS

.770

wOBA

.337

Exit Velocity

91.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

40.9%

Barrels/PA

7.6%

Expected BA

.282

Expected SLG

.511

Sprint Speed

23.9 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

47.1%

Line Drive %

19.2%

Fly Ball %

33.6%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Fernando Tatis Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

Tatis is now firmly entrenched in the conversation for the top player in fantasy baseball, but he is not without risk. Tatis scared us early in 2021 with a shoulder dislocation on a swing and the attached rumors he may need major surgery to correct it. It was the fifth time over the last calendar year Tatis had partially dislocated his shoulder. All he did around that was go out and post a monster fantasy season in 130 games and leave us wondering how awesome his numbers would have been if he played an entire season. Besides the ever-present fear of his shoulder popping out, his strikeouts are not getting much better, which puts a cap on how high his batting average can go in theory. Tim Anderson scoffs at that theory. Simply put, Tatis is an elite-level offensive talent who has the skills to put together the first 40-40 season since Alfonso Soriano in 2006, as long as his shoulder doesn't get worse.

Tatis was arguably the best player in baseball for much of the 2020 campaign, but a late-season swoon (.164/.242/.291 slash line over his final 62 PA) cost the youngster a legitimate shot at the NL MVP award. Still, Tatis solidified his reputation as one of the game's most exciting stars, finishing among a group of six players to register double-digit homers (17) and steals (11) in the shortened campaign. There's little Tatis doesn't do well; he consistently smashes the ball, ranking first among qualified hitters with a 62.2 Hard% and 95.9 mph average exit velocity and placing second with a 19.5% barrel rate last season. He also ranked in the 98th percentile in sprint speed, portending many years of juicy power-speed numbers to come. That's the kind of combination fantasy managers salivate over, so don't be surprised if Tatis goes first overall in a fair number of leagues ahead of the 2021 season.

In his rookie campaign, Tatis blew away the lofty expectations that accompanied his rise up the prospect rankings. Among players with 300 or more plate appearances, Tatis placed 11th in wRC+ (150) while ranking in the top 15 in traditional metrics such as batting average (.317), slugging percentage (.590) and OPS (.969). The phenom was limited to 84 games due to a pair of stints on the injured list, but when healthy he flashed an impressive combination of speed and power, swatting 22 home runs and utilizing baseball's 18th-best sprint speed (29.3 ft/s) to swipe 16 bases. Tatis' high strikeout rate (29.6%) and unsustainable BABIP (.410) portend some batting-average regression, but he'll be only 21 years old on Opening Day and should improve his plate discipline as he matures. Even with some imperfections, Tatis possesses the necessary tools to be a legitimate 30-30 threat for many seasons to come.

Tatis has had a lot of success (133 wRC+ at Double-A as a 19-year-old) relative to age and level, but there are red flags in his profile that are not shared by the game's other elite prospects. He has a 27.9% strikeout rate at Double-A and only 26.7% of his hits went to the opposite field last year. His physical gifts can't be taught (easy plus power, above-average speed and athleticism) and he didn't turn 20 until Jan. 2, but his approach undeniably needs some work. Tatis could eventually provide Trevor Story-esque production at shortstop, but there will likely be some bumps along the road against big-league pitching. He missed the final six weeks of 2018 with a broken thumb, but was ready for winter ball and will open 2019 at Triple-A. The Padres say they will keep him on a fast track, but unless there is significant skills growth with his approach, he should not be expected to hit for a high average against big-league pitching if he debuts this summer.

Tatis became the first 18-year-old in the modern era to post a 20-20 season in the Midwest League. The 6-foot-3, 185-pound quick-twitch athlete may have slightly misled dynasty-league owners with his 21-homer, 29-steal campaign. He projects to be a 30-homer threat in the majors, but his steal totals should decline annually as he continues to mature physically. It is extremely rare for players his age to hit for that kind of power at Low-A while also showcasing a quality approach (124:75 K:BB). He could struggle to hit much higher than .275, but given his age, athleticism and aptitude for making adjustments, anything is possible on that front. The same could be said for his ability to stick at shortstop, as many expect him to eventually end up at third base, but such a move is unlikely to be made for at least a couple years. He is on track to enter 2019 alongside another junior (Vladimir Guerrero) as a top-three prospect in baseball.

At the time of the trade, it seemed that the Padres were simply getting salary relief and a low-level minor league throw-in from the White Sox for James Shields. Now, general manager A.J. Preller can point to his acquisition of Tatis as one of his best moves in what has been a calendar year full of excellent maneuvers. He was an above-average hitter as a 17-year-old in both the Arizona and Northwest leagues last year, and is still just scratching the surface of his potential. Tatis is already 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, so he will likely grow out of shortstop, but his bat should be good enough for him to profile as at least an average regular at third base. So far he has shown more speed than power, but that will not be the case for much longer. Tatis could offer 25-30 homer pop as he continues to mature physically. His future value will hinge on the continued development of his bat, but he is well ahead of schedule.

More Fantasy News

Adds another steal

OFSan Diego Padres

September 18, 2023

Tatis went 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base and one run scored in Monday's 11-9 win over the Rockies.