2024 Wells Fargo Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on May 7, 2024

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

The PGA Tour action kicks into high gear this week with a Signature Event in Charlotte, North Carolina, for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. The lead-up to the PGA Championship includes a stacked field of 69 players for the no-cut event, with Scottie Scheffler (personal) and Ludvig Aberg (knee) being the only eligible players not teeing-it up, and Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite at 13-2 odds.

Last year, Wyndham Clark (75-1) picked up his first Tour win with a four-shot victory over Xander Schauffele.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday

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Course Overview

Par 71, 7,558 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Quail Hollow Winners since 2019

SG: Off-the-Tee: 18.7
SG: Approach: 7.7
SG: Around-the-Green: 40.0
SG: Putting: 2.3
SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.3
Driving Distance: 14.7
Driving Accuracy: 61.3

When you look at recent champions at the venue – Clark, McIlroy and Jason Day, it doesn't take much to notice that length is a clear advantage here. At over 7,500 yards it's easy to see why as one of the longer courses on Tour, and each set of nines only has one par-4 under 440 yards which can be set up to be driveable for the longer hitters. The fairways average 33.5 yards wide, pretty standard for the average venue and are surrounded by tree-lined fairways and minimal rough that puts much more of a premium on distance over accuracy. Iron play also stands out as a key statistic, and players will see a lot of approach shots in the 175-225 yard range. The course is known for its closing three-hole stretch known as 'The Green Mile', which features a difficult par-3 sandwiched in between two long par-4s, and all three holes have water in play. Make no mistake, this is a difficult venue in which only the three par-5s and two short par-4s play under par, so I'll also looking towards those play well at tougher setups and golfers that rank well in bogey avoidance in addition to the elite ball strikers.

Quail Hollow Quintet

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Quail Hollow over the last five years.

If you're looking at the course history angle, it's important to note that the 2022 event was held at TPC Potomac due to Quail Hollow hosting the Presidents Cup later that year and if you want to go back even further, it hosted the PGA Championship in 2017. With that said, Schauffele was last year's runner-up and was T14 in 2021, and he's gained shots in every strokes gained category both years. He comes in on the heels of seven straight top-25s and is the second favorite at 9-1 odds. Meanwhile, Homa has fond memories of the venue and event as a two-time Wells Fargo champion (one at TPC Potomac), and his first career PGA Tour victory came here in 2019. He recorded a T8 here last year as well, proving his success at Quail Hollow was no fluke. With a pair of top-10s over his last five events, he shouldn't be overlooked at 22-1 odds.

Best Ball Strikers

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.

Not only does Lowry enter the event having won the Zurich Classic team event alongside McIlroy in his last start, but he also features the best ball striking numbers in the field over the recent stretch. Although the short game has held him back, he ranks third in SG: Approach on the season and leads the Tour in driving accuracy. Lowry looks to be a nice value at 60-1 in the shorter field. One player that's a bit of an unknown heading into the week is Zalatoris, who withdrew before the start of last week's event due to a flare-up with his back. When healthy, it's difficult to ignore his iron prowess as he ranks eighth in SG: Approach on the year. The risk seems factored into his 35-1 price tag, and I'm going to assume he more so wanted to rest last week with two big weeks ahead.

Wells Fargo Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Collin Morikawa (22-1)

At a place where ball striking is critical to success, it sure doesn't hurt to back a guy that rarely misses fairways and has traditionally been one of the best iron players on Tour. He's also coming off back-to-back top-10s. Morikawa missed the cut here last year but lost over four strokes putting, so I'm not putting much stock into that.

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)

Fleetwood has played well in his last two trips to Quail Hollow, finishing tied for 14th in 2021 and T5 last year. He's won overseas this year but is still in search of his first PGA Tour win. We know the game is in good form as he finished in a share for third at Augusta.

Russell Henley (50-1)

Henley will get overlooked by most bettors this week as a shorter hitter, but he does everything else well – ninth in driving accuracy, 36th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 43rd in putting. With three top-5s on the year including one in a Signature Event, you can't count him out anywhere.

Wells Fargo Championship Bets: Other Wagers

Hideki Matsuyama
Top-5 Finish: 13-2

This has been an event Matsuyama has skipped the last couple times, but he did finish T5 when Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship in 2017. Prior to a mediocre T38 result at the Masters, he was one of the hottest golfers on Tour with four consecutive top-15 finishes.

Jake Knapp
Top-10 Finish: 8-1

Knapp will be making his Quail Hollow debut, and he looks to be a good fit considering he ranks 29th in driving distance and 11th in SG: Approach this year. He's coming off his fourth top-10 of the year.

Chris Kirk
Top-5 Finish: 11-1

Kirk has put together a quality year, with a win and four top-20s across 10 starts. However, he still doesn't get the level of respect he deserves. Two of those results came over his last two events, and these are some generous odds for someone that's sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2024.

Wells Fargo Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Viktor Hovland (-110) over Matt Fitzpatrick

I know, it hasn't been a good season for Hovland, but he's had three weeks to get his game in order since missing the cut at the Masters. He has a T3 finish at Quail Hollow and despite the slump, is still a better golfer than Fitzpatrick. Fitz has leveled off with the distance gains we saw from him a couple years ago and is a mediocre 70th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season.

J.T. Poston (-120) over Denny McCarthy

McCarthy did post a top-10 here last year, but he led the field in putting. That's going to be hard to duplicate, as evidenced by three missed cuts here previously. With driving play being his weakness, he's a fade for me this week. Poston is a North Carolina native and has four top-10s this year, including in his last start at the RBC Heritage.

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