This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: May 24th Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 11-11, -1.761 Units
Back to .500 on the year, whelp. It turns out the Boston Red Sox had mapped out a short start for Garrett Crochet, unbeknownst to me, or Crochet himself. In all fairness, I needed him to get an out in the seventh to cash, and he had gone 85 pitches through five innings, so he likely only had one more inning, at best, anyway. Oh well, let's get it back Saturday!
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Marlins at Angels
I never expected to type "Marlins at Angels" and "interesting matchup" in the same sentence. But, here we are, and it's somewhat of an interesting matchup. The Marlins roll out a lineup of names no one outside of deep Fantasy leagues would have ever heard of. But, hey, I play in too many deep Fantasy leagues, and I've heard of all of them. And, they have hit reasonably well. On the season, Miami ranks 12th in MLB with a .249 team batting average, 18th at 4.1 Runs/game and 17th with a .311 wOBA. Great? Hardly. But, I fully expected to see them as a bottom five sort of offense, and they're pretty much league average.
They've also cashed tickets for Overs bettors. On the season, Miami is 30-19 for a 16.9% ROI, including 14-7, 27.3% on the road. Again, it's not a lineup that will terrify any pitcher, but they've gotten a monstrous .319/.392/.566 161 wRC+ 10 homer start from Kyle Stowers and six homers in just 108 plate appearances (PA) and a .535 SLG from DH occasionally masquerading as C Agustin Ramirez.
Meanwhile, the Angels have the hottest offense in the league, scoring 6.38 Runs/game over the last two weeks with a league-best .502 SLG and 133 wOBA. Taylor Ward started slowly, but it's a distant memory now. He's clubbed five homers in the past week, and nine overall back to May 6th with a .324 average and 26 RBI's in just 17 games. Logan O'Hoppe is on a tear as well, with five homers and 12 RBIs in the past week. Zach Neto missed the beginning of the season, but he has mashed since returning with a .287 average and eight homers in 139 PA's.
Overs by the Angels have been money as well, 29-20-1 12.7% ROI on the season. Further, we don't exactly get the scariest pitching matchup ever. L.A. starts Jose Soriano, who throws high 90's gas but only has an 18.5% K%. He gets by as an extreme groundball pitcher, as his -1.9 Launch Angle leads all qualified pitchers. That can work, of course, as he's only yielded three homers, though on 16 barrels. It can also go badly, as he gives up hard contact at a 90.2 EV and his 1.48 WHIP is not the greatest. The Marlins counter with Cal Quantrill, who frankly is just there to eat some innings and get something back in a trade for a rebuilding team. He's only managed to chow down on 41 IP though in nine starts as he carries a 6.37 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with a paltry 16.4% K%. He has yet to go past five innings in a start, and Miami's 5.09 bullpen ERA ranks 6th worst in MLB. The worst pen ERA? That would be the Angels at 6.57.
So, long story short at this point, let's go for some plays on a high-scoring game.
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MLB Best Bets
- Over 8.5 - Marlins at Angels (-115 BetMGM)
- Cal Quantrill Under 14.5 Outs Recorded +136 (FanDuel)
- Taylor Ward 2+ Total Bases (+120 DraftKings)
- Zach Neto 2+ Total Bases (+120 DraftKings)
