This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
It is also why I spend a lot of time looking into Average Draft Position compared to end of season values for players. How does this relate to taxes? I'm glad you asked!
Fantasy players tend to have unstable memories when it comes to players at draft time before March. They'll use selective memory to ignore the bad previous season and keep drafting that player as if he'll bounce right back to where he was before the bad season. Conversely, they'll take a small sample size of six-to-eight weeks at the end of the season and will extrapolate that over a full season as they reach for a player. Those are what you call tax-free players and heavily-taxed players.
Last week, we looked at the
It is also why I spend a lot of time looking into Average Draft Position compared to end of season values for players. How does this relate to taxes? I'm glad you asked!
Fantasy players tend to have unstable memories when it comes to players at draft time before March. They'll use selective memory to ignore the bad previous season and keep drafting that player as if he'll bounce right back to where he was before the bad season. Conversely, they'll take a small sample size of six-to-eight weeks at the end of the season and will extrapolate that over a full season as they reach for a player. Those are what you call tax-free players and heavily-taxed players.
Last week, we looked at the overvalued and undervalued players at each position. This week, let's look at the players that are coming tax-free as we near 100 drafts of ADP data versus those that are coming at a heavy tax based off last year's performance.
Last season, 16 players finished with at least $30 of value in 15-team standard mixed leagues. Most of those players are being drafted as if they will repeat, with a few exceptions. The uncertainty around Victor Martinez and his knee has moved his ADP down to 38, and that is likely to continue until we get closer to Opening Day. Last season, only Mike Trout was a more valuable hitter to own than V-Mart. Johnny Cueto was the second-best fantasy producer for pitching last season, but he also had the fourth-highest difference between his actual ERA (2.25) and his FIP (3.30). There's that, and the fact he's coming off a huge season where he worked 243.2 innings. There is no tax being paid in this group, but there is quite a hit in value to Nelson Cruz. A season after he produced $33 of value, he's now a sixth-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues with an ADP of 62 as he moves from cozy Camden Yards to a more spacious Safeco Field.
The players that earned $20-29 last season show quite a bit of volatility in their current ADP's. Anthony Rizzo had a strong season and earned $28 last year and has parlayed that into being a first-round draft pick in many drafts already. He has gone as high as the ninth overall pick in NFBC drafts. Buster Posey is clearly the best catcher on fantasy baseball draft boards, and there's a tax to pay for that ranking as well. He has an ADP of 21 and has gone as high as 10th overall in drafts. Lastly, Edwin Encarnacion, a guy that I've loved like a son for many many many years, has an even higher tax rate on him. He missed time in the middle of the summer and hit just eight second-half home runs, but he is a rock solid first-round pick in nearly every draft and has gone as high as eighth overall. There's no child tax credit here if you want this 30 home run lock.
Conversely, there are quite a few tax-free players in this group as people doubt certain players can repeat their successful 2014 campaigns. J.D. Martinez finished in the top 40 of overall production last season, but currently owns an ADP of 115, even after hitting .292/.342/.478 over the second half of the season. Recently-sprung Jayson Werth was a slot behind Martinez in final 2014 value, but had an ADP of 154. At least with Werth, there's a reason for the discount in that he had shoulder surgery in early January and is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. Melky Cabrera rebounded nicely in Toronto last season after his disastrous 2013, and will be hitting near the top of a potent Chicago White Sox lineup in a very nice park. While he finished 48th in overall value last season, he has an ADP of 167 as he lives in a tax shelter. Justin Morneau is still playing in Coors Field, and he surprised many with a top-50 finish last season. Despite the good numbers, there are plenty of doubters as his ADP sits at 175. Denard Span, someone with speed who will be setting the table for the likes of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman, has an ADP of 174. Ben Revere, who has many of the same traits but has a worse supporting cast, is being taken 54 spots ahead of Span. That's quite a tax for players that were rather identical in 2014 with very different upsides in 2015.
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA Span 5 94 37 31 .302 Revere 2 71 28 49 .310
Rounding out the $20 category is Torii Hunter. He earned $20 in his age-38 season playing for Detroit and now moves to the west to play at age 39 in Target Field and with an ADP of 271, everyone is forecasting a big drop-off for a player that has been rather stable in recent seasons.
As we get into the players that earned $10-19 in 2014, we see even more volatility. 15 such players make up 20% of the top-75 ADP spots in 2015, led by Hanley Ramirez at 24. He, Ryan Braun, and Stephen Strasburg are each going in the top 30 despite recent health issues for all three. A season after many thought Billy Hamilton busted while earning $16, he's being taken before the 50th pick in most drafts. Devin Mesoraco fell off quite a bit in the second half of the season, but he's being drafted as a top-80 player.
This grouping also has several values, starting with James Loney. The first baseman is ranked 30th by ADP at first base at 354, meaning he's there for the taking in any league. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer is being taken at 233 and is the 22nd first baseman by ADP. Compare their 2014 numbers:
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA Loney 9 59 69 4 .290 Mauer 4 60 55 3 .277
Does Mauer have a very high batting average floor? No doubt. Does he have any kind of power ceiling? No. 2009 was a complete aberration and Target Field is not going to suddenly become friendly to guys whose natural swing is to the other gap. Why pay the name tax on Mauer when you can get the same guy for nothing in the reserves?
The same applies for Leonys Martin. He isn't even slated to hit in the top half of the Texas lineup, but Martin is gone before pick 160 in leagues. Rajai Davis is going nearly 80 picks later. Here's the tax difference on the two:
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA Martin 7 68 40 31 .274 Davis 8 64 51 36 .282
Davis out-produced Martin nearly across the board and did it in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances. Davis has a very good shot at repeating his playing time if Victor Martinez's 2015 season is delayed or Anthony Gose does not take the next step up at the plate.
Or, how about this tax being paid on a pitcher that was red hot down the stretch in 2014. Each pitcher on the table below finished 2014 with $11 of production.
ADP K% BB% HR/9 ERA WHIP 143 27% 6% 0.5 2.55 0.99 211 23% 4% 0.9 3.04 1.07
The higher ADP belongs to Carlos Carrasco while the lower one belongs to Matt Shoemaker. Both worked around 135 innings last season, but their skills are at least within the same neighborhood of one another. Carrasco is ranked 28 among starting pitchers by ADP and is coming off the board before the more-proven Gio Gonzalez while Shoemaker is going 54th behind the likes of Jose Fernandez and Mike Fiers. Do you want to shop in New York or Delaware?
Let's drop down another tier and look at players that earned less than $10 in 2014 and look at a trio of pitchers by the same measures.
ADP K% BB% HR/9 ERA WHIP 111 26% 8% 0.5 2.69 1.14 183 25% 8% 0.7 3.63 1.29 397 24% 8% 0.9 3.78 1.40
Here, we have three pitchers with similar skills, but one stands out from the crowd in terms of ratios, and that is Jacob deGrom. If you are willing to wait six rounds in a 12-team draft, you can pick up nearly the same skills with Ian Kennedy. Kennedy improved his strikeout rate four full percentage points last season, but a career-high BABIP inflated his ratios. In the reserve rounds, you can roster similar skills in Shane Greene and hope the move out of Yankee Stadium and into Comerica Park into a starting role will help him blossom.
There are 10 players that earned less than $10 that have ADP's in the top 100, nearly all of which are coming back from injury: Bryce Harper, George Springer, Carlos Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Chris Davis, Jason Kipnis, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mark Trumbo, and David Wright. Previous track almost dictates this, but there are a few other players with some serious helium in them right now without that track record.
PLAYER HR R RBI SB BA 102 12 52 42 20 .249 267 9 55 54 6 .289
The higher ADP belongs to Kolten Wong while the much lower one belongs to Scooter Gennett. Neither has more than 750 plate appearance in their career, but one is in a much higher tax bracket and is nearly in the top 100 while the other is struggling to stay in the top 300. One of these guys is a career .300/.331/.449 hitter over 704 plate appearances and the other one is .236/.280/.360 over 495 plate appearances. Long term, Wong has the higher ceiling, but he's being drafted as if he is already there, much like Mookie Betts (ADP 106). Did we not learn anything last year with Xander Bogaerts?
Happy shopping, folks. Spring training is here!
