DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks
DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

Tuesday night's slate is kind of weird in that almost every game has one decent-sized favorite. That means there are a lot of good pitchers on good teams against bad pitchers on bad teams. Because of that, it may not be needed to spend everything on Gerrit Cole. Maybe.

PITCHING

Fade Gerrit Cole at your own peril. The righty hurler can't be stopped, hitting double-digit strikeouts in each of his last seven starts, resulting in at least 30 fantasy points in those outings. One of those was a monster 49.4-point performance against the Mariners, who own a 27.1 K% against righties in September. No one else has the same upside, but there are other ways to go if you don't want to spend that much. Mike Clevinger ($11,800) has at least 24 fantasy points in his last seven and the White Sox have a 26.3 K% against righty arms this month. Max Scherzer ($11,000) also has a good matchup, but I think Eduardo Rodriguez ($10,400) is the better cash play with 22 Ks in his last two starts. He's been a safe option and has a chance to put up huge numbers against the Rangers, who own a 24.0 K% and .281 OBP against southpaws in the last month. Jack Flaherty ($9,800) is in that same mold and has gone eight innings in three of his last four outings, and the Diamondbacks are near the bottom of the table with a .286 wOBA against righty arms this month.

If you don't spend on those guys, success will be hard to come by, at least in cash games. Homer Bailey ($8,400) is probably the cheapest I'd go for my top pitcher, as his strikeout numbers have lacked consistency. However, the Angels are depleted and have a 25.0 K% and .280 wOBA against righties in September. 

The top value options based on matchup are Julio Teheran ($7,500) and Dylan Bundy ($7,400). Neither instill much confidence, but they're posting somewhat positive numbers. Teheran has at least 13 points in five of his last six starts and Bundy has 16 points in three of his last four. Both the Royals and Blue Jays are striking out a ton with a 28.1 K% and 30.6 K% against righty arms this month, respectively. If you want to test your luck, Jeff Hoffman ($4,800) should be set for at least 10 fantasy points against the Giants, who have a 26.0 K% and .252 wOBA against righties this month.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

The Astros, Dodgers and Yankees are all sizable favorites and a mix of them will be included in most cash lineups. Tommy Milone has a 2.79 ERA in 19.1 innings against Houston this year, but he also has a .347 wOBA allowed to lefty bats. That points to Yordan Alvarez ($5,600) if you're prepared to spend, as well as Michael Brantley ($4,100) and Josh Reddick ($3,500) at slightly better rates. Ronald Bolanos hasn't shown much in his few outings and has allowed a .394 OBP to 33 lefties faced. The Dodgers are full of lefties from Cody Bellinger ($5,400) and Corey Seager ($4,500) to Joc Pederson ($4,100) and Gavin Lux ($3,800). Last and maybe most popular are the Yankees against Yonny Chirinos, who had a bullpen session over the weekend in his return from injury. While his pitch count may be limited, it's hard to ignore what he's done against the Yankees in the last three meetings, allowing 19 hits and 10 runs in 18 innings. DJ LeMahieu ($5,000) has two homers in 13 career at-bats against Chirinos, while Luke Voit ($4,400) is 5-for-10 and Gio Urshela ($4,100) is 6-for-7 in this matchup.

If you don't want to spend on the big favorites, there are a slew of other places to turn. Dillon Peters is allowing 2.23 HR/9 and a .387 wOBA to righty bats, and The A's have five regulars who sport an OBP above .400 against southpaws in the last month. Marcus Semien ($5,200) is at .467 in his last 45 plate appearances while Jurickson Profar ($3,700), Khris Davis ($3,600) and Josh Phegley ($3,600) aren't far behind and come at better rates. The Indians are in a similar position against lefty Hector Santiago, who probably shouldn't be starting anymore. He's struggled in limited appearances this year and had xFIPs above 5.00 against both sides of the plate last year. Carlos Santana ($4,900) and Jordan Luplow ($4,500) are the leaders in terms of OBP with Roberto Perez ($3,800) close behind.

The Orioles-Blue Jays game has one of the higher over/unders at 10 runs and is worth diving into. In GPP, I'd focus a little more on the cheaper Baltimore players, especially since Bundy has better numbers on the road, allowing a decent .307 OBP. Austin Hays ($3,800) will be a popular play while Dwight Smith ($3,600) and Chance Sisco ($3,400) are the bigger reaches. 

STACKS

Red Sox vs. Edinson Volquez, opener, Ariel Jurado (Rangers)

(SS Xander Bogaerts - $5,400), (OF J.D. Martinez - $4,900), (C Christian Vazquez - $4,600)

Jurado is getting more innings and it's almost a must to use at least one bat against him. He's given up 11 runs in his last two outings and is allowing a .437 wOBA to righty bats at home. The Red Sox don't have anything to play for so they aren't the easiest team to back, but they still have the ability to go off. Bogaerts has a stout .372 OBP and .241 ISO in his last 94 PA against righty arms and leads the way in this stack.

Cubs vs. Mitch Keller (Pirates)

(1B Anthony Rizzo - $4,900), (OF Kyle Schwarber - $4,700), (2B/OF Ben Zobrist - $3,700)

Keller has better numbers at home, but he gave up seven hits and six runs against the Cubs a month ago at home. He's allowing a .420 OBP and .406 wOBA to lefties and that's where Chicago excels. This trio provides power as well as ability to get on base as they all have OBPs above .365 in the last month against righty hurlers. If you want to save money, Jason Heyward ($4,000), Victor Caratini ($3,900) and Nico Hoerner ($3,700) are also viable.

Rays vs. Yankees pitchers

(2B/3B Joey Wendle - $3,400), (OF Austin Meadows - $5,100), (1B Ji-Man Choi - $4,000)

This is more of a GPP play as most will be looking at the Yankees bats and not the ones on the other side of the field. Masahiro Tanaka was set to start, but he'll be rested and instead it'll be a mix of arms getting the call. Without a desire to win, I still think it's worth going against the Yankees. Meadows and Choi lead the stack with .394 and .383 OBPs against righties in the last month, respectively, to go with a bit of power.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate. 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year.
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