J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez

35-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Boston Red Sox
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Martinez struggled in 2020 with a .213 average, torpedoed by a near 100-point drop in his BABIP to .259. There was a lot of trepidation toward drafting him as a result. He answered all doubters with a 1.169 OPS in April, and hit for a .805 OPS over the rest of the season. While a near-.800 OPS is not ideal, it is similar to the rates of Nolan Arenado (.807 OPS) and Mitch Haniger (.804 OPS). He's a rosterable player, but not the same player who was consistently hitting 40-plus homers with a .300 average. His maxEV used to be around 115 mph, but it's closer to 113 mph the last three seasons. With less power, he's compensated by raising his launch angle each season since 2018 (from 10.8 degrees in 2018 to 16.9 degrees last season, while his GB% was near a career low). His HR/FB has been cut in half since 2017, going from 33.8% to 15.7% last year. Right now, his profile screams good, not elite. Pay for the good, and hope he has the ability to bring back his old self one more time. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#87
ADP
$Signed a two-year, $47.5 million contract with the Red Sox in February of 2018. Exercised $23.75 million player option for 2020 in November of 2019. Exercised $19.35 million player option for 2021 in November of 2020. Exercised $19.35 million player option for 2022 in November of 2021.
Riding pine Saturday
OFBoston Red Sox
September 24, 2022
Martinez isn't in the lineup Saturday against the Yankees, Christopher Smith of The Springfield Republican reports.
ANALYSIS
Martinez is getting a rare day off after he went just 1-for-10 with a walk and four strikeouts over the last three games. Bobby Dalbec will serve as the designated hitter and bat seventh.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
46
20
27
4
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
18
8
7
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+10%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+39%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+1%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .848 415 64 14 59 1 .282 .352 .496
Since 2020vs Right .772 1008 116 32 120 0 .262 .328 .444
2022vs Left .974 126 22 3 15 0 .321 .405 .569
2022vs Right .703 433 45 9 40 0 .254 .319 .385
2021vs Left .826 226 34 9 36 0 .279 .341 .485
2021vs Right .888 406 58 19 63 0 .290 .352 .536
2020vs Left .679 63 8 2 8 1 .214 .286 .393
2020vs Right .669 169 13 4 17 0 .213 .296 .373
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+13%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+6%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+53%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .810 735 94 23 102 1 .278 .341 .468
Since 2020Away .778 689 86 23 77 0 .256 .329 .449
2022Home .715 280 32 5 29 0 .268 .318 .398
2022Away .811 279 35 7 26 0 .269 .358 .453
2021Home .890 337 49 14 57 0 .293 .365 .525
2021Away .840 296 43 14 42 0 .278 .331 .509
2020Home .807 118 13 4 16 1 .262 .331 .477
2020Away .527 114 8 2 9 0 .162 .254 .273
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Stat Review
How does J.D. Martinez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.36
 
BB Rate
8.9%
 
K Rate
24.5%
 
BABIP
.344
 
ISO
.156
 
AVG
.269
 
OBP
.338
 
SLG
.425
 
OPS
.763
 
wOBA
.335
 
Exit Velocity
88.9 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
34.8%
 
Barrels/PA
8.0%
 
Expected BA
.260
 
Expected SLG
.462
 
Sprint Speed
22.3 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
38.1%
 
Line Drive %
22.6%
 
Fly Ball %
39.2%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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28 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
2012
Major League Baseball implemented a policy against in-tunnel video in 2020 and Martinez hated the policy, blaming it in large part for his struggles. He complained about it early and often, and never really seemed to get over it. He looked surprisingly awful at the plate for most of the season, particularly against fastballs. Martinez hit .318 and slugged .574 off fastballs in 2019, but those numbers fell to .186 and .372 last season. He put up the 2019 numbers even while dealing with a balky back, but he just looked completely overmatched at the plate more often than not in 2020. Even his well-documented domination of lefties suffered as the career .310/.382/.568 hitter against southpaws had a 2020 finish of .214/.286/.393. Expect a rebound in 2021 because he has had an offseason to adjust his preparation, but a full recovery to 2015-2019 is unlikely.
For a player with this kind of power -- among the most prolific in the game -- 36 home runs in a record-setting HR season qualify as a slight disappointment. While Martinez didn't finish north of 40 as he did in 2017 and 2018, he did clear the .300 BA threshold. He also cleared triple digits in RBI for the fourth time in five seasons and surpassed 200 runs-plus-RBI for the second consecutive year. The fact is, he's so much more than "Just Dingers." Martinez has chipped away at his K%, lowering it to 21%, and he walks more than 10% of the time. While certainly not a good defender, Martinez still qualifies as an OF-eligible player, one who has the luxury of playing most of his games at DH. If a 21st ranked finish among hitters is what we can expect in a "down" year from Martinez, then consider us very much in at a second-round cost. He's still going to be only 32 years old for most of the 2020 season.
Martinez was unsigned deep into last winter, but the wait was worth it after he found the perfect landing spot in Boston. While mainly serving as the club's DH, Martinez avoided the health issues that plagued him as an everyday outfielder the prior two seasons, playing in 150 games and setting career highs in AVG (.330), OBP (.402), RBI (130), runs (111) and extra-base hits (82). As has held true since his 2014 breakout, Martinez remains a Statcast darling, with his elite hard-hit and barrel rates yielding elevated BABIPs for a player with limited speed. The stellar batted-ball metrics bolster Martinez's odds of finishing near the top of the home-run and average leaderboards again in 2019, while his spot in a lineup that includes a bevy of young stars sets him up for ample run-producing and run-scoring chances. Martinez retains outfield eligibility after logging 57 starts in 2018, mitigating any concern about his worthiness of a first-round selection.
Despite missing six weeks at the start of the season due to a foot injury, Martinez finished third in the majors with 45 home runs. He produced at an otherworldly rate after being traded from Detroit to Arizona, hitting 29 homers and driving in 65 runs in just 62 games with the Diamondbacks. He was great against both handedness of pitcher, but Martinez absolutely destroyed lefties to the tune of a .376/.464/.892 batting line. Overall, Martinez's barrel rate of 12.3 Brls/PA trailed only Aaron Judge's mark, according to Statcast. He's now hit over .300 in three of the last four seasons, and Martinez is still just 30, so it should be a while before any significant age-related skills regression sets in. He landed with the Red Sox in free agency, giving him added appeal as a late-first/early-second rounder with a combination of elite power and batting average.
It would be wrong to say Martinez struggled through the first two months of 2016, but his .820 OPS was a level below the upper-.800 range he had shown over the previous the two seasons. When he hit at a 1.076 OPS clip for the first two weeks in June, it looked like everything was back on track until he ran into a wall in foul territory during a game in Kansas City and fractured his left elbow, forcing him to miss nearly two months. There were some concerns about his power upon return, but a dramatic eighth-inning home run against Chris Sale in his first at-bat back stomped that fear down. He got hits in each of his first five games back and 19 of 20 afterward. The bottom line was another 517 plate appearances that further solidify him as one of the game's premier power bats. He flirted with 40 homers back in 2015 before the power surge swept the league, and he remains a candidate to eclipse that mark in a full season.
Martinez proved his breakout of 2014 was real with elite production in 2015. He delivered 38 home runs and 102 RBI, with an .879 OPS; all three of those stats were top-10 in the American League. His OBP (.344) was still solid despite whiffing 178 times. The Tigers and his fantasy owners can live with those strikeouts if Martinez can continue to deliver as one of MLB's best power hitters. Draft him as a top-10 outfielder, but watch for a drop-off in performance after the All-Star break. Martinez has been a better first-half performer the last two seasons and seems to tire a bit in the second half.
Martinez was easily one of the biggest fantasy surprises of 2014. After being released by the Astros during spring training, Martinez was quickly signed to a minor league contract by the Tigers, who assigned him to Triple-A Toledo to begin the season. He was able to force the Tigers’ hand after just 17 games with the Mud Hens and his success carried over to the majors, as Martinez quickly took over as Detroit’s everyday left fielder. While it’s hard to argue with the strong numbers he posted, Martinez’s production was buoyed by an unsustainable .397 BABIP. He also struggled with his plate discipline, posting a 71 percent contact rate and 0.24 BB/K ratio. The odds are stacked against Martinez repeating his magical 2014 campaign, but he is a former top prospect with solid power, and it certainly won’t hurt his cause hitting behind superstars Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Owners will want to make sure they don’t pay for his 2014 production, but there’s still plenty of value to be had here if the price tag is right.
Martinez began the season hitting third for the Astros, but imploded the second time through the division, earning himself a demotion in early August. Still, we can not call 2012 a total failure. Martinez proved that he can hit well in the clutch (as evidenced in part by his team-leading RBI total), though few would argue that he has below-average speed and is stiff on the basepaths. The Astros' move to the American League will afford Martinez some added opportunities in the DH spot, but that role may be shared with Brett Wallace thanks to the addition of Carlos Pena at first base.
The Hunter Pence trade coupled with a hot start at the plate allowed Martinez to parlay a late July callup into an opportunity to remain a regular in the Astros lineup for most of the remainder of the season. He can hit for a decent average and has developing power, though the questions persist about his ultimate upside. The Astros have a lot of outfield options, so there's a chance Martinez could be moved to right from left. He figures to get regular at-bats, wherever he winds up playing.
More Fantasy News
Four XBH in last two games
OFBoston Red Sox
September 21, 2022
Martinez went 2-for-5 with a home run, a triple and two RBI in Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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Knocks in winning run
OFBoston Red Sox
September 17, 2022
Martinez went 1-for-3 with a walk and an RBI in Friday's 2-1 win over the Royals.
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Hitless in return
OFBoston Red Sox
September 8, 2022
Martinez returned to the lineup and went 0-for-3 with a walk in Wednesday's 1-0 loss to the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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Starting Wednesday
OFBoston Red Sox
September 7, 2022
Martinez (back) is starting Wednesday against the Rays, Chris Cotillo of The Springfield Republican reports.
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Should play Wednesday
OFBoston Red Sox
Back
September 6, 2022
Managaer Alex Cora said Martinez (back) is expected to be in the lineup for Wednesday's series finale in Tampa Bay, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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