2023 Stats
W-L
6-1
ERA
3.01
WHIP
1.02
K
85
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Through his first seven starts of 2022, Keller had a 6.61 ERA. After he was briefly demoted to a relief role, it appeared the Keller was on a continued trajectory of an underwhelming MLB career. However, the narrative quickly took a turn, as Keller re-entered the rotation and closed the campaign by maintaining a 3.22 ERA across his last 120.1 innings. He turned into a contact-heavy pitcher in that span by maintaining only a 20.7 K%, but that also allowed him to fill the strike zone and maintain an 8.8 BB% (career 9.7 BB%). Even more of a revelation was Keller's ability to keep batted balls on the ground, as his GB% spiked to 49.4% and HR/9 fell to 0.7. While those exact numbers may not be replicable, the positive results were made more believable by a tangible change in Keller's pitch mix. He threw his four-seam fastball less in exchange for introducing a sinker, so the tradeoff of swings and misses for groundballs is sensible. While his role once seemed to be in danger, Keller is locked in as a top-three pitcher in the Pirates' rotation, and he could be capable of turning in solid ratios without much strikeout or win upside. Read Past Outlooks

Wins ugly Friday
Keller (6-1) picked up the win Friday over the Mariners, allowing six runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out eight over six-plus innings.
ANALYSIS
Keller versus George Kirby looked like a pitchers' duel on paper, but it ended up being a slugfest in practice. Keller was taken deep twice in his worst start since Opening Day, but he was still the better of the two starters. He's rarely one to give up many homers, having allowed just seven across 11 starts this season. The rough outing raised Keller's ERA to 3.01 with a 1.02 WHIP and 85:16 K:BB through 68.2 innings. He'll look to put this one behind him next week in San Francisco.
Keller versus George Kirby looked like a pitchers' duel on paper, but it ended up being a slugfest in practice. Keller was taken deep twice in his worst start since Opening Day, but he was still the better of the two starters. He's rarely one to give up many homers, having allowed just seven across 11 starts this season. The rough outing raised Keller's ERA to 3.01 with a 1.02 WHIP and 85:16 K:BB through 68.2 innings. He'll look to put this one behind him next week in San Francisco.
Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
96
Last 10 Games
96
Last 5 Games
95
How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2023
-4%
BAA vs RHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021vs Left | .284 | 138 | 71 | 177 | 11 | |||
Since 2021vs Right | .261 | 177 | 54 | 170 | 20 | |||
2023vs Left | .213 | 50 | 10 | 29 | 4 | |||
2023vs Right | .205 | 35 | 6 | 25 | 3 | |||
2022vs Left | .276 | 55 | 34 | 80 | 5 | |||
2022vs Right | .257 | 83 | 26 | 82 | 9 | |||
2021vs Left | .345 | 33 | 27 | 68 | 2 | |||
2021vs Right | .300 | 59 | 22 | 63 | 8 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
-20%
ERA on Road
2023
-42%
ERA at Home
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2021Home | 4.84 | 1.50 | 180.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | ||||
Since 2021Away | 3.89 | 1.36 | 148.0 | 9.2 | 3.2 | ||||
2023Home | 2.18 | 0.82 | 33.0 | 10.4 | 1.4 | ||||
2023Away | 3.79 | 1.21 | 35.2 | 11.9 | 2.8 | ||||
2022Home | 3.72 | 1.40 | 87.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | ||||
2022Away | 4.13 | 1.39 | 72.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | ||||
2021Home | 7.91 | 2.01 | 60.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | ||||
2021Away | 3.57 | 1.46 | 40.1 | 8.9 | 3.6 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
5.31K/9
11.1BB/9
2.1HR/9
0.9Fastball
94.9 mphERA
3.01WHIP
1.02BABIP
.302GB/FB
1.39Left On Base
71.4%Exit Velocity
79.4 mphBarrels/BBE
4.5%Spin Rate
2452 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
15.3%Swinging Strike
10.7%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Keller's fastball velocity was up this spring and with it, his ADP. Typically a righty with a fairly straight mid-90s fastball, Keller was touching 99 mph this spring. He will need to command the pitch and his quality secondaries, as big-league hitters have no trouble catching up to that velocity when it lacks movement and isn't located properly. However, there is clear post-hype breakout potential here, especially since Keller is a lock to make the rotation.
More Fantasy News

Impressive once more
Keller did not factor into the decision Saturday, allowing two runs on three hits over six innings against the Diamondbacks. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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Career-high 13 strikeouts in win
Keller (5-1) earned the win Sunday, tossing seven scoreless innings in which he allowed four hits during a 4-0 win over the Orioles. He struck out 13 and did not issue a walk.
ANALYSIS
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Tosses complete-game shutout
Keller (4-1) earned the win Monday, tossing a complete-game shutout in which he allowed four hits and one walk during a 2-0 win over the Rockies. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out eight in loss
Keller (3-1) took the loss Wednesday, allowing five runs (one earned) on five hits and one walk over five innings during an 8-1 loss to Tampa Bay. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out 10 in win
Keller (3-0) earned the win Thursday, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk over six innings against the Dodgers. He struck out 10.
ANALYSIS
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